It’s a massive MLB DFS slate tonight. There are 11 games on the slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 pm ET at both outlets. There’s a game at Coors Field again on tonight’s main slate. Last night, I suggested investing in the offense at MLB’s most hitter-friendly venue. Should gamers return to the well or fade the game in the thin air in Colorado?
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
One ace is worth his high-ticket salary at both DFS outlets. Two pitchers with middle-tier salaries at DK have the potential to outproduce their salary, making them fun GPP picks. The final pitcher is an affordable SP2 at DK who will allow gamers to spend on some stud hitters.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at SD
Strider is validating his breakout 2022 season. According to FanGraphs, he has a 3.38 ERA, 3.14 xERA, 3.03 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 12.1 BB%, 34.2 K% and 35.6 CSW% in three starts, totaling 16.0 innings. His walk rate is higher than one would like.
Regardless, Strider's high strikeout rate gives him wiggle room to issue more free passes than most hurlers. Further, Strider's plate discipline numbers this year are similar to last season's when he had a more palatable 8.5 BB%. So he can improve his walk rate.
The betting info is also good for using Strider on DFS rosters. According to Betting Pros, the Braves are -140, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
Brad Keller (KC) at TEX
Keller isn't the same pitcher this year. Instead, as Eno Sarris pointed out on Twitter, he's drastically changed his pitch mix.
He didn't throw a curve before this year and has thrown it at a 25.1% clip this year. He's also thrown his changeup at a 13.2% rate, much higher than last year's career-high of 5.5%. Keller's 2.12 ERA in three starts spanning 17.0 innings overstates how well he's pitched this season. Still, Keller's 3.85 xERA, 4.14 SIERA and 23.2 K% are good enough marks to justify using him as an SP2 at DK for his tiny salary.
GPP Recommendations:
Marcus Stroman (CHC) at OAK
In three starts lasting 18.0 innings this year, Stroman has a 1.00 ERA. Predictably, he's been a touch lucky. However, the veteran righty's 2.93 xERA, 3.04 xFIP and 3.37 SIERA are rock-solid or better marks, too.
Stroman also has a sweet 1.00 WHIP, 28.2 K% and 69.0 GB%. So, the underlying data is fantastic. The matchup tonight should allow Stroman to stay hot. The A's are tied for 20th in wRC+ (95) and have a 23.6 K% against right-handed pitchers this year. A larger sample of work against right-handed pitchers isn't more flattering for Oakland's possible starters, either.
The other context is also ideal for Stroman. The Cubs are -170, the game's total is 7.5 runs, and the Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher-friendly park. Stroman has an exciting high-floor and high-ceiling profile tonight.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. MIL
Gilbert has a challenging matchup against the Brewers. Fortunately, they offer him ample strikeout potential to validate chasing his upside in GPPs. Gilbert has dazzled this year, twirling a 2.70 ERA, 2.27 xERA, 2.97 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.9 K% and 28.1 CSW% in three starts, amassing 16.2 innings.
Gilbert has also pitched well at his pitcher-friendly home ballpark. In 153.1 innings at home in his career, he's had a 3.76 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 4.1 BB% and 24.0 K%. Thus, Gilbert has the goods to carve up the Beer Makers tonight. Finally, the betting info is nice. The Mariners are -164, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Josiah Gray is mediocre against righties. That's the best thing to say about him. So, in other words, he's a punching bag. Gray has allowed 2.16 HR/9 in three starts this year, 2.30 HR/9 in 2022 and 2.33 HR/9 in his career. He's tallied a 5.11 ERA and 4.72 xFIP in his career. Yet, his ineptitude against lefties is the most eye-catching figure on his statistical profile. Since last season, the right-handed hurler has coughed up a .580 slugging and .408 wOBA to 306 lefties. Baltimore's projected lineup has six players who will bat left-handed against Gray. It's feasting time for them tonight.
- Road (Fenway Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/MIN -115
Chris Sale appears to be entirely washed up. The 34-year-old lefty has allowed 16 runs and five homers in three starts this year. He's allowed at least one homer in all three games and coughed up at least six runs twice. Sale has an 11.25 ERA and 6.93 xERA in 2023. It hasn't been pretty. Moreover, Fenway Park has the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210). It also boosts singles (1.116), doubles (1.298), triples (1.643) and homers (1.095). Therefore, it will probably be a house of horrors for Sale tonight.
- Adley Rutschman has teed off on righties. In 407 plate appearances against them since debuting last year, he's had a .398 OBP, .229 ISO and 161 wRC+.
- Byron Buxton is a terror for southpaws. He's crushed them for a .309 ISO and 156 wRC+ since 2021.
- Since 2021, Cedric Mullins has had a .354 OBP, .204 ISO and 133 wRC+ against righties. However, gamers shouldn't overlook his speed. The speedy outfielder stole 34 bases last year. He's also swiped eight bases this year. Meanwhile, Keibert Ruiz has allowed 12 stolen bases in 14 games this year.
- Since reaching the majors last year, Jose Miranda has muscled up for a .220 ISO against lefties. Conversely, Sale has surrendered a .576 slugging and .415 wOBA to 76 right-handed batters since last year.
- Gunnar Henderson is another piece of lefty exposure to Gray. The young infielder has had a .371 OBP, .186 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 151 plate appearances against righties since reaching The Show late last year.
- Donovan Solano projects to hit third for the Twins at Fenway Park against the struggling Sale. That's a hell of a foundation for a player priced at nearly the minimum salary on DK and FD. Additionally, the veteran infielder has had a 119 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Pirates showcased the potential for scoring at Coors Field last night. The Rockies could also rebound from their disappointing showing in their home ballpark. Regardless, the Orioles and Twins are exciting pivots in all game types tonight and my preferred sources of hitters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
