Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 6:40 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a small slate in stature, including only five games. The pitching is stacked at the top, despite the limited number of games. The following picks will navigate the unbalanced pitching, including a stack facing one of the aces.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top two pitchers on the table have the best cases for use in cash games and tournaments, respectively. The third pitcher is underpriced and the most attractive SP2 at DK in all game types.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Gerrit Cole (NYY) at TEX
According to FanGraphs, Cole has the third-lowest ERA (0.79) among qualified pitchers this season. In five starts totaling 34.0 innings this year, Cole has also had a 2.76 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, 29.3 K% and 29.1 CSW%.
Predictably, Cole's game log is tantalizing. He's held his previous two opponents scoreless and his first opponent scoreless, hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start and has had at least eight strikeouts three times. Finally, the betting info is great. According to Betting Pros, the Yankees are -165, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Tyler Mahle (MIN) vs. KC
Mahle's been on point this year. In four starts totaling 21.2 innings, he's had a 3.32 ERA, 3.23 xERA, 3.74 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 25.3 K% and 28.0 CSW%.
Mahle hasn't been flawless, but his marks are rock-solid. Moreover, the matchup is dreamy. The Royals are dead last in wRC+ (60) against righties and have a 24.9 K% against them this year. Kansas City's projected lineup has had unimposing numbers against righties since 2021 or since debuting in the majors.
The betting info is the cherry on top. The Twins are -200, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. So, Mahle's the ideal SP2 in all game types at DK and a nifty tournament pick at FD.
GPP Recommendation:
Shane McClanahan (TB) at CWS
The slate is too small for an ace like McClanahan to be entirely overlooked. Nevertheless, sharing the same slate as Cole and opposing Dylan Cease makes him a high-ceiling GPP alternative to New York's ace. Among qualified pitchers this season, McClanahan is seventh in ERA (1.86), 17th in xFIP (3.27), 19th in SIERA (3.50) and fifth in strikeout rate (32.5 K%).
So, McClanahan's cooking with gasoline this year. Additionally, he spun a gem against the White Sox in his most recent turn. On April 22, he held Chicago to two runs on three hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts in 6.0 innings. Sadly, McClanahan received a no-decision. The Rays are -152, and the game's total is just 7.0 runs. So, maybe McClanahan will have better luck earning a win in another gem tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Twins have an easy matchup tonight. In five starts totaling 27.1 innings in 2023, Zack Greinke has a 4.61 ERA, 5.43 xERA, 16.5 K% and allowed 1.65 HR/9. Since last season, the righty has allowed a .325 wOBA to lefties and a .322 wOBA to righties. Furthermore, Kansas City's bullpen is a trainwreck, sporting the second-highest ERA (6.10) in 2023. So, the Twins can light the scoreboard up all game.
- Road (Guaranteed Rate Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.0 Runs/TB -150
Cease is a tall task for Tampa Bay's offense to tackle. Still, the hard-throwing front-line starter isn't always an efficient inning horse. In fact, Cease lasted just 4.0 innings against the Rays in his most recent start. And when Cease leaves the game, Tampa Bay's offense has a superb matchup. Chicago's bullpen is dreadful. The White Sox have the third-highest ERA (6.09) this year. So, spending the requisite substantial cap space to stack the Rays is an enticing tournament option.
- Byron Buxton has had a .303 ISO and 142 wRC+ against righties since 2021. He also might be heating up. In 26 plate appearances since April 19, he's had a .346 OBP, .375 ISO, 178 wRC+, 19.2 K% and hit two homers.
- Jorge Polanco has hit the ground running since his activation from the Injured List. In 22 plate appearances, he has a homer, .409 OBP, .318 ISO and 219 wRC+. The switch-hitting infielder has also had a .346 OBP, .231 ISO and 132 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
- Brandon Nimmo's the perfect table setter atop New York's lineup. He's had a .384 OBP and 139 wRC+ against righties since 2021. The left-handed-hitting outfielder also has a .449 OBP and 164 wRC+ in 108 plate appearances this year. The matchup is good for Nimmo, too. Trevor Williams has allowed a .361 wOBA to lefties since last season.
- Joey Meneses has had a .368 OBP, .250 ISO and 162 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since reaching The Show in 2022.
- In 307 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Lane Thomas has had a .368 OBP, .183 ISO and 133 wRC+. Furthermore, he's a No. 2 hitter, giving him a fantasy-friendly lineup spot.
- Anthony Volpe's excelled since he was moved up to the leadoff spot for the first time this year on April 12. In 54 plate appearances since April 12, he's had a .389 OBP, 135 wRC+, two homers and five stolen bases.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins are the best source of hitters today. Yet, the Rays are a tournament-friendly stack. And the Yankees, Mets and Nationals have some enticing hitters, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
