Thursday’s main MLB DFS slate is tiny again and includes only five games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate begins at 6:40 pm ET. The pitching is adequate at the top but dries up fast. So, there should be ample offense on tonight’s MLB slate.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitching options tonight aren't ace caliber. Still, they have desirable upside and palatable salaries. The cheapest highlighted pitcher is the safest and provides the most cap relief. So, he'll likely be chalky and is the best cash game option. However, the second and third-listed pitchers have sizable strikeout potential. In fact, the second-ranked pitcher dominated tonight's opponent in his second start of the year.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jordan Montgomery (STL) vs. PIT
Montgomery is the safest option tonight. But don't believe me. Believe the sportsbooks. According to Betting Pros, the Cardinals are -250 favorites tonight.
Montgomery is also worth a look in DFS because of his superb work for the Red Birds. Per FanGraphs, in 13 starts totaling 75.2 innings since joining them via trade last year, Montgomery has had a 2.97 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 5.3 BB% and 24.1 K%. Tonight's opponent should allow him to tally another good start for St. Louis. The Pirates are 19th in wRC+ (91) against southpaws this year. So, gamers can comfortably use Montgomery in cash games at DK and FD.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. PHI
Lodolo had a strong debut for the Reds last year and has kicked it up a notch this year. In two starts spanning 12.0 innings, Lodolo has had a 1.50 ERA, 1.79 xERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 41.2 K% and 33.9 CSW%.
The young southpaw dominated the Phillies in his second start this year, holding them scoreless on three hits, two walks and 12 strikeouts in 7.0 innings on April 8. So, this will be Philadelphia's second look at them this year. But, of course, they couldn't muster any offense against him in their first crack.
The Reds are only -120. Thus, a win is far from certain. The rest of Lodolo's profile is DFS-friendly, though. Additionally, Lodolo's high-strikeout rate makes him a perfect fit in all DFS game types.
GPP Recommendation:
Joe Ryan (MIN) at NYY
Ryan and the Twins are +120 underdogs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have a top-shelf offense. Still, with great risk comes a potentially great reward for rolling the dice on Ryan. The young righty didn't rest on his laurels after a good season for the Twins last year. Instead, he went to Driveline in the offseason to work on his repertoire.
The most exciting change to Ryan's arsenal was turning a changeup into a split-change. According to FanGraphs, the split-change has a breathtaking 20.0 SwStr% this year. Ryan also has had a 16.7 SwStr% on his four-seam fastball and 9.8 SwStr% on his slider. The 26-year-old righty has struck out 16 batters in 12.0 innings in two starts this year.
Moreover, Ryan has had a 32.2 K% against righties since last year. New York's lineup will likely have at least five right-handed batters and could have as many as seven. Thankfully, Ryan is tough on lefties, too. He's held them to a .276 wOBA and struck them out at an adequate 18.9% clip since last season. Ryan has little room for error against New York's potent lineup, but his strikeout potential and ceiling are tailor-made for tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Spencer Turnbull has struggled in his return to the hill after missing the 2022 season. In two starts totaling only 8.0 innings, the veteran righty has allowed 12 runs and walked more batters (five) -- which doesn't include hitting two batters -- than he's struck out (four). Turnbull's batted-ball profile has also resulted in an ugly 8.21 xERA. He's a punching bag, and Toronto's lineup has the pop and depth to pile up fantasy points. So, they're the top stack tonight.
- Road (PETCO Park)
- Value: Medium (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIL +120
Nick Martinez is on the fast track back to the bullpen. He has a 6.17 ERA, 7.44 xERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13.5 BB% and allowed 1.54 HR/9 in two starts this season. Martinez's 17.3 K% also isn't threatening. So, the Brewers have a cushy matchup. They also have the requisite lineup depth to punish Martinez from top to bottom. Eight of the projected starters have had at least a 104 wRC+ against righties since 2021 (or since debuting in the majors when applicable). Milwaukee's lineup isn't loaded with elite talent, but there's enough to work with to consider them in tournaments tonight as a likely contrarian stack.
- Vladimir Guerrero has smashed righties for a .372 OBP, .256 ISO and 154 wRC+ since 2021. He's also raking this year, swatting two homers with a 10.5 BB%, 5.3 K%, .491 OBP and 202 wRC+.
- Daulton Varsho's .230 ISO against righties since 2021 is a fantasy-friendly mark. Varsho also has some speed, swiping two bases along with his .420 OBP and 153 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances this season.
- Willy Adames has muscled up against same-handed pitchers since the Brewers traded for him. In 409 plate appearances against righties on the road as a member of the Brewers, he's produced a .345 OBP, .218 ISO and 130 wRC+.
- Spencer Steer should hit second for the Reds today against a lefty, Bailey Falter. Since last year, Philadelphia's lefty has yielded a .491 slugging to right-handed batters. Conversely, Steer has had a .424 OBP, .286 ISO and 176 wRC+ in 33 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show last season.
- Brice Turang is a sweet punt at a position lacking intriguing options tonight. The rookie has gotten off to a quick start in his MLB debut, recording a .368 OBP, 111 wRC+ one homer and two stolen bases in 38 plate appearances.
- Against lefties since 2021, Wil Myers has had a .349 OBP, .193 ISO and 124 wRC+. He should also be nestled in the heart of Cincinnati's order tonight. As a result, Myers is an excellent punt at his tiny salary.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Blue Jays are the most exciting stack tonight. Still, the Brewers have a compelling case for stacking in tournaments. It's also a good night for partially stacking both offenses together and mixing in the highlighted Reds, Steer and Myers. Finally, stars and scrubs is my preferred lineup build, with great options at both ends of the salary spectrum.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
