MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (4/2)

That Saturday slate was awesome. We had our fair share of hits and misses, but that’s typical throughout the MLB season. We have to keep grinding every day, and as long as we’re right more often than we’re wrong, it’ll be a great season! With that said, we have a full Sunday slate here, so let’s dive into it!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

Wow, this is an ugly slate for pitching. I’d go as far as to say we don’t have a single ace to discuss. That’s left the pickings extremely thin, but some good pitchers are still in some quality matchups. It’s also a good slate to build around cheap pitching and pay-up for hitters, so let’s kick things off with a breakout pitcher from last year.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Tyler Anderson (LAA) at OAK

Anderson was stuck in Colorado for most of his career, but a move to LA did him some good. He pitched for the Dodgers last season and provided a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in a career year. We don’t expect him to duplicate that, but those are All-Star numbers. He should be able to keep it going against Oakland, who ranked last in nearly every offensive statistic last season. He’s also a -170 favorite in a game with a 7.5-run total.

Jeffrey Springs (TB) vs. DET

The Rays churn out good starters year after year, and Springs looks like another diamond in the rough. The lefty broke out with a 2.46 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year and had some of the best spring training numbers in the league. He threw 9.2 scoreless spring innings while striking out 16 batters. It will be tough to keep that going, but it should be easy against a Tigers team that ranked 29th in wOBA and dead-last in runs scored last year. That’s why Springs is a -230 favorite in this sensational spot.

GPP Recommendations:

Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs. PIT

We’ll have pitchers against the Pirates all year. Pittsburgh was 28th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, and K rate last season. They haven’t gotten much better and will surely struggle with the surging Ashcraft. The righty registered 25 strikeouts across just 17 innings at spring training and could be a breakout candidate. He also picked up a quality start in his one matchup with the Pirates last year, scoring nearly 40 FanDuel points in that gem.

Jared Shuster (ATL) at WAS

It’s risky to use a rookie making his debut, but that’s how difficult this slats will be. What we really love is this matchup with Washington, who is projected to have the worst lineup in the NL. That has Schuster entering this matchup as a -200 favorite, and he’ll face a bunch of fellow minor leaguers here. What earned him this spot in his spring training form, posting a 1.45 ERA while holding opponents to a ridiculous .115 BA.

Top Lineup Stacks

New York Yankees (vs. Ross Stripling)

• Home (Yankee Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5Runs/NYY -150

Pitchers going into Yankees Stadium is always scary. It’s especially frightening with the way Stripling was getting slaughtered in spring training, generating a 7.43 ERA and 1.78 WHIP across 23 innings. Those are some of the worst numbers in baseball, and it makes him someone we want to stack against in this hitter-friendly environment.

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Joey Wentz)

• Home (Tropicana Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/TB -230

We don’t know much about Joey Wentz, but that makes him someone we want to stack against. The Tigers lefty has a solid 3.03 ERA, but his 4.56 career xFIP would indicate that some negative regression is right around the corner. A matchup with one of the best lineups could start it, and that’s huge with how cheap many of these bats are on both sites.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Zach Davies)

• Home (Dodgers Stadium)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -180

The Dodgers are always a worthy stack. They become particularly intriguing against a pitcher like Davies, who has one of the worst K rates in baseball. That has LA projected to score five runs, and many of these guys are cheap at the bottom of the order. This soft-tosser has been terrible over the last two years too, totaling a 4.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Core Studs

• Judge was the best player in fantasy last year, and he’s starting right where he left off. The slugger homered in his first at-bat and looks well well on his way to another massive season. He should keep that slugging going against a guy who couldn’t get anyone out in spring training.
• There was some talk about Yordan dealing with a hand issue, but he quieted all of those doubts with a 450-foot bomb in the opener. This guy has been one of the best hitters since his call-up, collecting a .296 AVG, .384 OBP, .591 SLG, and .975 OPS throughout his career. That’s ridiculous, and we love that he has the platoon advantage against a struggling Mike Clevinger.
• If we want to stack the Dodgers, we have to love Freeman in the heart of their lineup. After getting off to a slow start, this All-Star flirted with a 1.100 OPS over the closing four months of last year. We expect him to keep doing that in the three-hole of this dominant lineup, and it’s not like the slow-throwing Davies will divert his path.
• The Rockies have one of the worst rotations in baseball, and Austin Gomber is a major reason why. The lefty had a 5.56 ERA last year, which is scary since Manny has been mauling lefties throughout his career. He’s also killed the Rockies as well, and he’s always in play in this sort of matchup.
• The Rays rarely have expensive players, but Rozey is always their top option. That’s because he’s established himself as a 25-20 player and always performs with the platoon advantage in his favor. When he’s faced lefties since 2020, Arozarena has amassed a .376 OBP, ..540 SLG, and .916 OPS.

Value Plays/Punts

• Muncy had a nightmarish opener when he struck out five times, but this guy is too cheap in the heart of this Dodgers lineup. He’s expected to bat cleanup behind Freeman, and it’s no surprise when diving into his splits. The masher is just shy of a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against righties since joining LA. His strikeouts have been the only thing holding him back, but that’s not an issue against Davies.
• Renfroe was brilliant in the spring, and he could be in for a ton of RBI this season. He’s batting ahead of Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon, generating a .600 SLG and .360 OBP in the preseason. That looks amazing since he faces a subpar southpaw here, with Renfroe registering a .862 OPS against lefties since 2020.
• The Red Sox are a sneaky stack, and Turner would have to be the top choice. He’s traditionally trounced lefties throughout his career and dropped 19 FD points in his BoSox debut. That’s bad news for Cole Irvin because Boston is projected to score five runs against that terrible lefty.
• Paredes is projected to bat cleanup for the Rays, and it’s hard to understand why he remains so affordable. He has an OPS north of .800 against lefties since joining Tampa and went on a 10-game stretch last year where he was the best hitter in baseball. He had a 1.505 OPS in that July streak, and he could be starting a breakout for a team that has breakouts every year.
• Kepler bats atop the Twins lineup because he always kills righties. He’s actually got the best BvP numbers on this slate, providing a .500 OBP, .737 SLG, and 1.237 OPS in 24 at-bats against Brad Keller. That’s a large sample size, and it makes Kepler way too cheap as the leadoff hitter for this dangerous lineup.

Hitter Strategy

We usually prefer to pay up for pitching and save with our hitters, but we’re switching it up today. There aren’t many good pitchers toeing the rubber, and we want to pay up for some premium bats. I would love to start with some high-end Dodgers and then build from there. You can find plenty of value from the Rays, and stacking those two teams together will allow you to do whatever you want with your lineup in terms of construction.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.