MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (4/16)

After that successful Saturday slate, we’re ready to keep rolling here! We had a terrible group of pitchers on Saturday, but this Sunday card is ridiculous. It feels like we have All-Stars toeing the rubber in every game, and it’s going to make for a sensational slate. There’s obviously a ton to discuss when it comes to those arms, so let’s start there!

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Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is one of the most challenging slates I’ve ever written about from a pitching perspective. It was nearly impossible to limit it to just four guys because it feels like every top-notch starter is toeing the rubber. That’s leaving us with a ton of great options, so, let’s get started with one of the favorites for NL Cy Young!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Max Scherzer (NYM) at OAK

Mad Max has gotten off to a slow start, but this is the game to get him right. Oakland was dead-last in every offensive statistic last season, and playing in Oakland Coliseum is a major reason why. That’s bad news against an ace like Scherzer, sporting a 2.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last two years. He’s also got 409 Ks across 324 innings, entering this matchup as a -250 favorite!

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. COL

We talked about this yesterday, and we’re going right back to the well. The Rockies simply can’t do anything outside of Coors Field, ranked last in runs scored, OBP, and wOBA on the road last year. That won’t go over well against an ace like Castillo, collecting a 1.02 ERA and 0.74 WHIP so far this year. He’s been even better at Safeco Field, which is awesome since he’s a -250 favorite in this spot.

GPP Recommendations:

Zac Gallen (ARI) at MIA

Gallen had a rough go in his debut, but his most recent outing shows his true colors. The 2022 breakout threw seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing, striking out 11 batters. That’s the stud we saw last season, with Gallen generating a 2.54 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. That makes him one of the most underrated aces in baseball, and getting to face Miami in Marlins Park is a treat. Miami ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xWOBA last season, no thanks to their spacious ballpark.

Logan Webb (SF) at DET

Webb has a 2.96 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last two years, and his advanced statistics tell us he’s the same guy. Despite posting a 4.76 ERA, Webb has a 2.59 xFIP. That means some positive regression is right around the corner, and a matchup with Detroit should start it. The Motor City Kitties rank last in runs scored and wOBA, while sitting 28th in K rate so far this year.

Top Lineup Stacks

Cleveland Guardians (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/CLE -230

If you haven’t been stacking against Corbin for the last three years, you shouldn’t be playing DFS. This southpaw has been the worst pitcher in baseball, providing a 5.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP since 2019. That’s 404 innings of pitiful pitching, and it’s hard to understand why the Nats continue to throw him to the wolves, or Guardians in this circumstance.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Drew Smyly)

• Home (Dodgers Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -230

We all know the Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball. It’s not as potent as usual, but they’re always a Top-5 option, no matter who they face. Smyly should put a smile on the LA fans, with the lefty lamenting a 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP since 2019. That’s why LA is projected to score five runs, with Smyly scoring negative fantasy points in his most recent outing in Dodgers Stadium.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Zack Greinke)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -160

We love Greinke, but this veteran simply doesn’t have it anymore. The righty continues to throw 90 MPH meatballs to opposing hitters, accruing a 3.64 ERA and 1.35 WHIP since the start of last year. He’s lucky to have that ERA below 4.00 because his xFIP is closer to 5.00. He certainly won’t lower it against an elite lineup like the Braves, ranked fourth in wOBA and six in runs scored.

Core Studs

• Mookie has been one of the most reliable players in DFS for a decade. The leadoff hitter for the Dodgers is off to another nice start, averaging nearly 10 DraftKings points per game. Hitting atop this dominant lineup gives him one of the highest floors for any player, and getting the platoon advantage against a pitcher with a 6.52 ERA is wonderful too. In 32 at-bats against Smyly, Mookie has a 1.061 OPS against him.
• Olson has been one of the best power hitters since his call-up. The first baseman is one of the league leaders with five homers and 14 RBI. That’s easy to understand since he’s in the heart of this dominant lineup, and we love that he faces an old righty like Greinke.
• It’s funny watching Schwarber wobble his way around the bases, but this guy gets paid to mash baseballs. That’s what he did when he led the NL in homers last year, and he’s starting to get into one of his home run binges. The lefty masher has homered in four of his last 10 games and always bats better against righties. That’s bad news for Luis Cessa, compiling a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.
• Goldy has been the best hitter in the NL since the start of last season. The 2021-22 MVP has a .320 AVG, .410 OBP, .573 SLG, and .-983 OPS since then. He’s also flirting with a .500 OBP in the opening weeks of this season and should slice through a pitcher who has a 4.93 career ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
• The Polar Bear is starting to get rolling, and he should be a beast all year in the heart of this dominant Mets lineup. Over his last eight games, Alonso has five dingers while posting a .480 OBP. That looks even better since he has the platoon advantage against JP Sears, who’s another gas can lefty for the A’s.

Value Plays/Punts

• Martinez isn’t the stud that we used to love, but he’s still a dangerous bat against left-handers. Over the last six years, JD is just shy of a .400 OBP and .950 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. We love that with his recent form, amassing a .997 OPS over his last 11 games.
• The Guardians can be a challenging team to stack, but Rosario is always a sneaky pick against left-handers. Not only does he bat right in front of Jose Ramirez, but he also has a .298 AVG, .463 SLG, and .803 OPS against southpaws since 2020. That should bode well against a pitiful pitcher like Patrick Corbin.
• Cruz and Martinez are similar players, with both guys mashing lefties throughout their lengthy careers. That usually has Cruz batting fourth or fifth behind Manny Machado and Juan Soto, which couldn’t be a better lineup placement. It’s easy to understand why looking at his .368 OBP and .980 OPS against lefties this year. That’s not far off of his career splits, and we’re willing to ride him as long as he’s still out there!
• Ruf is always a sneaky pick of mine when he faces left-handers. The Giants slugger homered in his first game of the year earlier in the week and has a .362 OBP, .500 SLG, and .862 OPS against southpaws since 2021. That always earns him a prominent spot in this lineup, and we’re not worried about him facing a guy with a 1.56 WHIP.
• We had a hard time picking a final guy, so, let’s go with a reliable player like France. The Mariners first baseman gets to face this rubbish Rockies pitching staff, and we’re not even sure who’s going to take the mound for the Rockies. That’s scary with the way France is swinging the stick, accruing a .937 OPS through the opening three weeks of the year.

Hitter Strategy

I love this slate from a lineup perspective. The one thing you’re going to have to do is pay up at pitcher. There are way too many good arms to fade all of them, and it’ll be imperative to get the right ones in there. That means mixing in some of these value bats will be critical, and we’ve found a bunch of righty mashers who smash left-handed pitching. You should find a good mix from those value plays and stack teams like the Mariners, Mets, Guardians, Braves, and Dodgers. There’s plenty of value from all of those teams to build around two stud pitchers, and it’ll be fun to see how these lineups end up looking.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.