MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (4/15)

This is the best time to be a sports fan! We’re knee-deep into baseball now, and we also have NBA Playoffs to look forward to. It’s one of my favorite times of the year because those are my two favorite sports to cover. Baseball is my personal favorite because the everyday grind is like nothing else in sports. Many people don’t like that they play 162 games, but we love it! It gives us a chance to watch these guys every day, and it feels like there’s less volatility with such a massive sample size to look at.

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Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

We have almost every ace toeing the rubber tomorrow, so we’re looking at the backend of the rotations here. That made it nearly impossible to pick four pitchers we wanted because we have numerous rough ones taking the mound. That means it’s a great day to pay up for hitting because many of these pitchers are incredibly cheap.

Cash Game Recommendations:

George Kirby (SEA) vs. COL

If you don’t already know, the Rockies are the best matchup outside Coors Field. They’ve been dead-last in OBP, runs scored, and wOBA on the road in each of the last two years. That’s bad news against a stud like Kirby, compiling a 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP throughout his career. That’s why he enters this matchup as a -250 favorite, with Colorado projected to score just 3.5 runs.

Bryce Elder (ATL) at KC

We didn’t know much about Elder coming into the year, but this lefty has been a revelation in Atlanta. Elder has thrown 12.1 scoreless innings in his two starts this season, striking out 13 batters. That’s absurd, but it’s no surprise with how the Braves churn out starters. Kansas City couldn’t be a better matchup, ranked 29th in OBP, 28th in runs scored, and 26th in K rate.

GPP Recommendations:

Carlos Carrasco (NYM) at OAK

It’s been a rough year for Cookie Carrasco, but this is a great spot to get him back on track. We say that because Oakland Coliseum is one of the best parks to pitch in, while the A’s were the worst offense in baseball last season. They were last in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA. Carrasco has also been a stud throughout his career, collecting a 3.59 ERA and 1.16 WHIP since 2014.

Zach Plesac (CLE) at WAS

This is a tough one. Plesac is only a GPP option because he can get blown up on any occasion. We’re willing to take the risk here because the Nats have the worst lineup in the NL. They rank 26th in wOBA, 29th in xwOBA, and 27th in runs scored, but they look even worse on paper. Plesac is a guy who can go off against inferior competition, posting a 3.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his final 16 starts of last year. He allowed four or fewer runs in all but one of those, and that’s all you need from such an affordable player.

Top Lineup Stacks

Cleveland Guardians (vs. Chad Kuhl)

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/CLE -150

The Guardians can drive opposing pitchers nuts, getting on base at an elite rate while causing mayhem on the bases. That’s terrible news for Chad Kuhl, who’s got a 5.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since the start of last year. That’s sadly not far off of his nightmarish career averages, and it’s clear Washington will get pummelled all year.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Ryan Feltner)

• Home (Safeco Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/SEA -250

As someone who lives in Colorado, I have to tell you to stack against Feltner every time he takes the mound. This righty has a 6.27 ERA and 1.49 WHIP throughout his career. That makes it hard to understand why he still has a job, especially since he’s been just as bad on the road as he is in Coors Field. Seattle is a scary lineup, too, sending out one of the best top halves in MLB.

New York Mets (vs. Shintaro Fujinami)

• Road (Oakland Coliseum)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/NYM -180

The A’s are in a rebuilding season, and Fujinami is clearly an experiment. The Japanese rookie has made two starts this year, tallying a 17.55 ERA and 2.55 WHIP. Those look more like points and assists averages in the NBA, but it’s made Shintaro one of the worst pitchers through the opening weeks of the season. He’ll surely struggle against the Mets, sending out All-Stars like Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor.

Core Studs

• If we want to stack Cleveland, J-Ram has to be the first piece. This guy has been a Top-5 player in fantasy for the last five years, providing one of the best speed-power combos in baseball. He also hits much better from the left side and should feast against a gas can like Kuhl.
• J-Rod is one of the most exciting young players in MLB. He was a Top-3 player in fantasy points per game last year and hits in the heart of this stingy Seattle lineup. He’s gotten off to a slow start, but facing a crappy pitcher like Feltner should get him back on track.
• Big Pete is leading MLB in homers over the last four years, and he’s amid one of his binges right now. The Polar Bear has five homers over his last nine games and faces the worst pitching staff in baseball this weekend. This might be the worst pitcher in this pitching staff, and it’s scary since NY dropped 16 runs in the first game of this series on Friday.
• Muncy gets on these stretches where he looks like the best power hitter in the game. The big man has five dingers over his last four games while posting an OBP above .500 in that span. It’s clear he’s seeing the baseball well right now, and he’s always provided a .400 IOBP against righties since joining the Dodgers.

Value Plays/Punts

• Naylor is my favorite value play of the day. This masher always bats cleanup in this Guardians lineup, and he should feast against a terrible pitcher like Kuhl. Since being called up, Naylor has a .284 AVG, .505 SLG, and .839 OPS, with the platoon advantage in his favor.
• Kelenic has been one of the biggest busts in baseball over the last two years, but he’s looking like a post-hype breakout right now. The former top prospect has homered in four straight games, generating a .571 OBP and 1.922 OPS over his last seven games.
• Marte has always made minced meat of lefties throughout his career. The Arizona leadoff hitter has a .388 OBP, .592 SLG, and .980 OPS against southpaws since 2020. Those are some of the best splits in the league, which is impressive since he has an extra-base hit in six of his last nine games.
• Bellinger should be motivated to play in LA. This is one of the few good matchups you’ll get against the Dodgers, with Michael Grove totaling a 14.73 ERA and 2.32 WHIP this year. That also gives Bellinger the advantage from the left side, and he’s got a .371 OBP and .920 OPS over his last eight outings.
• Vogelbach is not an everyday player, but he should be in the heart of this Mets lineup whenever they face a righty. We saw that because DV has a .383 OBP and .847 OPS against righties over the last three years. We’ve discussed how bad this Fujinami guy is, and it makes Vogelbach a cheap piece in this elite stack.

Hitter Strategy

This should be an interesting slate from a lineup construction standpoint. We don’t have many great pitchers to pick from, but that’s leaving us with a ton of stacks we love. Riding the Mets and Mariners will be our best outlet, but there are numerous other offenses worth considering. That includes Toronto, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Chicago. There are plenty of pieces to mix and match from those teams, and painting them with these cheap pitchers should be a breeze.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.