MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (4/29)

I love baseball so much. There’s something special about watching these guys perform every day and being able to play DFS. It’s the one sport that truly rewards you for paying attention every day and putting in the work to follow all of these teams. It can sometimes be a grind, but enjoying it makes things so much easier. With that in mind, let’s start with one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

I love this slate for pitching. The highest-priced guy has earned it with his absurd two-year stretch, but there are two other options we love too. My final write-up is actually my favorite per-dollar play on the board, and it’s a great day to pay up for one of these pitchers and pair them with Greene!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Spencer Strider (ATL) at NYM

We weren’t so sure if Strider would be able to live up to his absurd 2022 averages, but he’s been just as good. The Rookie of the Year winner has a 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 14.7 K/9 rate. He’s also scored at least 55 FanDuel points in three of five starts and is simply the safest pitcher in MLB right now. Facing the Mets is concerning, but Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks around. That’s why NY is only projected to score 3.5 runs!

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. SF

Musgrove just made his season debut last week, and it’s clear these sites are too low on the ace. Since joining San Diego in 2021, Musgrove has maintained a 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 26 percent K rate. That’s awesome from a player in this price range, and this San Fran lineup is far from scary. In his five starts against the Giants last year, Joe generated a 1.07 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That’s why the Padres are a -200 favorite in this game!

GPP Recommendation:

Hunter Greene (CIN) at OAK

Greene is a volatile pitcher with a massive upside, but his nightmarish home park has limited his abilities. That doesn’t matter here, though, because Greene faces one of the worst offenses in one of the most spacious ballparks. That’s huge since Greene has one of the best K rates in baseball, projected to strike out 7.5 batters here. That’s amazing for such an affordable player, with Greene allowing three runs or fewer in all five of his starts this year.

Top Lineup Stacks

Texas Rangers (vs. Jhony Brito)

• Home (Globe Life Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TEX -150

The Rangers have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball. Despite playing without Corey Seager, Texas is fifth in OBP and second in runs scored. They’ve reached double-digits a handful of times over the last two weeks, and one of those upside games could be in play here. We say that because they face Brito, posting a 6.11 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in what’s turning out to be a disastrous rookie season filling in for this dismantled Yankees pitching staff.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Chris Flexen)

• Home (Rogers Centre)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/TOR -230

Flexen has done a nice job of limiting contact at times throughout his career, but that’s not the case right now. The Seattle righty has an ugly 0-4 record, thanks to his 8.86 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. Those are some of the worst averages in the game, and there’s no chance he will hold down Toronto. The Blue Jays are fifth in OBP and possess one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/PIT -140

It feels like Corbin pitches every weekend, and we always stack against him. The southpaw has been struggling for years now, sporting a 5.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP this year. That’s sadly not far off of his four-year averages, accruing a 5.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP since 2019. That puts any offense in play against them, and Pittsburgh has been pesky all year. The Pirates are Top-10 in BA, OBP, runs scored, and SLG.

Core Studs

• Vlad is always a good choice, and he’s off to one of the best starts of his career. Junior has a .333 AVG, .407 OBP, and .942 OPS through the opening month of the year. He’s also got a 1.090 OPS across his last seven outings and should thrive against Flexen’s ugly numbers mentioned earlier.
• Reynolds is one of the most underrated players in baseball. The Pirates outfielder has been carrying the Pirates to their surprise start, averaging nearly 10 DraftKings points per game. That makes him tough to fade against Corbin, who’s been one of the worst pitchers for five years now. It also gives Reynolds the platoon advantage from the right side, posting a .500 OBP in 14 at-bats against PC.
• Ramirez has gotten off to a slow start, but this guy is always a monster. J-Ram has actually finished Top-5 in fantasy points twice over the last five years and is always a candidate to finish Top-10. We especially love him against righties, giving him more chances for steals on his more favorable left side. Facing Bryan Bello is beautiful, totaling a 9.82 ERA and 2.18 WHIP.
• Semien gets in these stretches where he looks like the best second baseman in MLB. That’s what he looks like right now, accruing a .423 OBP and .990 OPS across his last 17 games. That doesn’t even consider his elite speed, and he should be lapping the bases against Brito.
• The Bryant era hasn’t been great in Colorado, but he’s gotten off to a pleasant start this season. The former All-Star is providing a .379 OBP and .831 OPS. That’s the stud we’ve become accustomed to, and he’s projected to post a .400 OBP and .900 OPS at Coors Field this year. Getting to face an inexperienced lefty is the icing on the cake, with Tommy Henry tallying a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP.

Value Plays/Punts

• The D’Backs have some talented young pieces, but Carroll looks like the prize of the bunch. The speedster is one of the league leaders with 9.7 DK points per game, providing one of the best power-speed combos around. That’s scary in a place like Coors Field, especially against a rookie like Noah Davis.
• Kepler has been a value play for us for a few years now. He’s never in the lineup against lefties, but Kepler is always the leadoff hitter against righties. That’s no surprise since he’s been flirting with a .350 OBP and .850 OPS against them since 2019. Facing Brad Keller should keep those numbers rolling, generating an ugly 1.48 WHIP this year.
• Cutch joining the Pirates gives us some nostalgic vibes, but he’s actually been a valuable piece for this surprising team. The former MVP candidate is always in the heart of this order and has been slaughtering southpaws for years. Since 2021, Cutch has compiled a .895 OPS against left-handers.
• India was a huge disappointment last season, but the Reds leadoff hitter is amid a bounce-back year. The second baseman has a .394 OBP and .798 OPS this year. He’s also a speed threat, and having someone atop an order with a .400 OBP is massive from a DFS perspective. We don’t mind the matchup with Kyle Muller, maintaining a 7.23 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.
• Varsho has been one of the best fantasy catchers since the start of last year. He’s not behind the plate too much anymore, but he’s still in the heart of this terrifying Toronto lineup. That alone makes him a good value in this price range, with DV recording 29 homers and 20 steals since the start of last year. He also benefits from the Flexen write-up because Varsho gets the advantage from the left side.

Hitter Strategy

There aren’t too many pitchers that we like, but there are a few that we love. It should be easy to pair those three pitchers with any of these value plays because we have plenty of salary to work with. My favorite teams to stack are the Blue Jays, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. The Colorado-Arizona game actually has the highest total, and there are plenty of cheap players to pick from in that tasty matchup.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can start with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.