The first DFS main slate of the work week is eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:10 pm ET. The slate has a fun mix of high-end pitching and offenses in high-upside situations. Thus, even the chalk options might not be as chalky as usual.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
When considering their production and matchups, two aces are a cut above the rest. Yet, two hurlers are more affordable and have compelling cases for use in various game types. Still, it's not outrageous to double up on aces in cash games at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Julio Urias (LAD) at SF
According to FanGraphs, the Giants have only three projected starters with a wRC+ above 110 against lefties since 2021. So, San Francisco's offense lacks high-end talent and depth against lefties. Meanwhile, Urias is talented.
The 26-year-old southpaw has a 1.50 ERA, 2.08 xERA, 0.75 WHIP, 0.0 BB%, 27.9 K% and 25.7 CSW% in two starts that totaled 12.0 innings this year. Additionally, Urias had a 2.16 ERA and 2.81 xERA last year. He can give the Giants fits, and the betting info suggests he will. According to Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -152, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
Jose Suarez (LAA) vs. WSH
Gamers can use Urias and the next ace on the same DK team in cash games. However, Suarez offers them an alternative who will open up the cap space to jam an extra bopper or two into DFS lineups. The Mariners crushed him in his first start.
Nevertheless, Suarez was rock-solid last year. In 20 starts spanning 102.1 innings in 2022, Suarez had a 4.13 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.6 K% and 26.7 CSW%. He'll face the Nationals tonight. Washington's offense isn't threatening to lefties. Moreover, the Nationals must adjust to playing away from Coors Field after playing a weekend series in Colorado. Finally, the Angels are sizable favorites (-230). Gamers shouldn't use Suarez at FD. He's a good SP2 option at DK, though.
GPP Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) at CHC
Castillo is dialed in. The 30-year-old righty hasn't allowed a run in two starts, ceding only three hits and two walks in 11.2 innings. Castillo has also struck out 12 batters this season. The veteran righty had a sterling 2.99 ERA, 3.31 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 7.3 BB%, 27.2 K% and 28.4 CSW% in 25 starts which spanned 150.1 innings in 2022.
Castillo is anyone's idea of a top-of-the-rotation starter. He also has a tasty matchup tonight. The Cubs have only one player with a wRC+ above 110 against righties since 2021. They also have many strikeout-prone players in their lineup. As a result, Castillo can score a boatload of fantasy points tonight. His ceiling is tailor-made for tournaments.
Logan Webb (SF) vs. LAD
The Giants are underdogs (+132). However, that's not too shabby since they're facing Urias. The game's total of 7.5 runs is favorable for Webb, too. So, the betting info reasonably supports speculating on Webb in tournaments.
Webb's credentials are tourney-friendly as well. In 351.2 innings at home since 2021, Webb has had a 3.07 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.1 BB% and 23.6 K%. He's also been exceptionally unlucky this year. So, Webb's 6.55 ERA in two starts is misleading. Instead, gamers should embrace his 2.88 xERA and 2.18 xFIP. Webb has also had a 34.8 K% and 34.7 CSW%. Thus, Webb's strikeout rate is ideal for GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
It's absurd Patrick Corbin is still starting MLB games in 2023. He's had a 5.86 ERA since 2020, the highest among qualified pitchers. The washed-up lefty has also coughed up 10 runs (eight earned) and two homers in two starts totaling 9.0 innings this season. There is no reason to overthink stacking against Corbin. Gamers should continue to stack against him until the Nationals designate him for assignment or move him to their bullpen.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.0 Runs/STL -136
The game's total is the highest on the slate, and the Cardinals are favored in MLB's premier hitting venue. German Marquez is a good matchup for the Red Birds since he understandably struggles in his home ballpark. Marquez had an eye-popping 6.70 ERA in 87.1 innings at Coors Field last year. He's also had a 5.08 ERA in 483.1 innings at Coors Field in his career. As a result, the Cards have a sky-high scoring ceiling tonight.
- Mike Trout is tearing the cover off the baseball. In 42 plate appearances this year, he's clubbed three homers with a .524 OBP, .355 ISO and 238 wRC+. Trout has also had a .442 OBP, .279 ISO and 184 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Brandon Drury is a smoking value at both DFS providers. He's had a .314 ISO and 149 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Evan Longoria is putting a charge into the ball this year. He also has had a track record of success with the platoon advantage. Since 2021, Longo's had a .385 OBP, .250 ISO and 152 wRC+ against lefties.
- Hunter Renfroe is a good pick at DK and a grossly underpriced no-brainer selection at FD. He's torched lefties for a .355 OBP, .235 ISO and 132 wRC+ since 2021.
- Jordan Walker is transitioning seamlessly to The Show. He's drilled two dongs and tallied a .405 OBP, .235 ISO and 167 wRC+ in his first 37 plate appearances for St. Louis. The rookie's salary is fair at FD and too low at DK.
- Teoscar Hernandez is correctly priced at DK and comically underpriced at FD. The slugging outfielder has had a .373 OBP, .383 ISO and 194 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
Gamers should attack Corbin with Angels in all game types. Paul Goldschmidt wasn't included in the core studs' section, but he's an attractive option on DFS teams with the requisite cap space after selecting Trout, the pitchers and the featured values. The Cards are another excellent stack in all game types.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
