The new week starts with an 11-game MLB DFS slate at DraftKings and FanDuel. The pitching suggestions for tonight are narrowed to a trio. And three stacks are exciting. Finally, the recommendations are concluded with the core studs and values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Frankly, Drew Rasmussen was included initially as a touted hurler. However, he missed the cut upon further consideration. The top hurler tonight has a potentially challenging matchup but a track record of excellence at home. The second choice is a value at DK and a stellar selection, even in a possibly tricky matchup. Then, the third pitcher has the softest matchup but the least big-league experience.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. PHI
Cortes has dominated at home the previous two years. According to FanGraphs, he had a 2.15 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 6.8 BB% and 27.6 K% in 134.0 innings at Yankee Stadium since 2021. Additionally, Cortes should pitch nearly a standard workload tonight. The lefty threw 74 pitches in his final start in spring training.
Philadelphia's projected lineup has a few dangerous hitters and few soft spots. Fortunately, some hitters strike out at exploitable rates against lefties, elevating Cortes' floor and ceiling. Finally, the game's total of 8.0 runs isn't concerning, factoring in the moneyline favoring the Yankees. Per Betting Pros, the Yankees are -174. As a result, Cortes is the top-ranked pitcher on tonight's slate.
George Kirby (SEA) vs. LAA
The betting info is encouraging for Kirby's outlook tonight. First, the game's total is just 7.5 runs. Second, the Mariners are -150.
Kirby faces a top-heavy lineup in the first start of his sophomore campaign. Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are top-shelf hitters. The rest of the lineup is less threatening. Moreover, the Angels don't have many low-strikeout hitters.
Kirby is also featured because he had a stellar rookie season. In 25 starts spanning 130.0 innings, Kirby had a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 xERA, 3.33 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.1 BB% and 24.5 K%. The righty also punctuated his spring by striking out nine batters on 68 pitches.
The young righty might also have something up his sleeve. According to Mariners beat writer Ryan Divish, Kirby threw his fastball 96-97 mph (he averaged 95.2 mph in 2022) and worked on a splitter when pitching for High- Everett in a B game.
Per FanGraphs, Kirby didn't throw a splitter last year. The foundation is already rock-solid for Kirby. A bat-missing splitter would be an exciting development. Kirby has a reasonable salary at FD. However, he's a steal at DK.
GPP Recommendation:
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. DET
Brown had a breakout campaign last season. The young righty spun a 2.55 ERA, 3.59 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 10.6 BB%, 31.5 K% and 11.7 SwStr% in 106.0 innings in Triple-A before getting a taste of big-league coffee.
Brown made five relief appearances and two starts for the Astros, completing 20.1 innings for Houston. He totaled 12.0 innings in his two starts and had a 1.50 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 6.8 BB% and 25.0 K% in those starts.
Brown shouldn't be too restricted in his first start after throwing 66 pitches in his last appearance in spring training. Presumably, he should be allowed to throw around 80 pitches if he builds on his last start.
Further, Brown shouldn't receive any resistance from the Tigers. Detroit has scored three runs in their first three games of the year. The likely starters have also been a trainwreck against righties since 2021 (or since debuting for players who didn't reach the majors until 2022). Brown should have a field day striking out the Tigers. He's also a decent bet to get the win since the Astros are -225 favorites.
Top Lineup Stacks
The betting info is ideal for stacking the Red Sox tonight. First, the game has the highest total. Second, the Red Sox are favored. The park factors are great, too. Fenway Park has the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210) and boosts homers (1.095), doubles (1.298) and triples (1.643). And facing Johan Oviedo is also nice. The young righty had a 4.52 xFIP in his eight starts last year.
- Home (Yankee Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/NYY -174
Taijuan Walker was lucky in 2020, mediocre in 2021 and decent last season. Walker had a 3.49 ERA in 157.1 innings for the Mets in 2022. Still, his 3.94 xERA and 4.05 SIERA were less impressive. The righty also had a 20.3 K% and 10.0 SwStr%, both falling short of the league averages of a 22.4 K% and 11.1 SwStr%. The Bronx Bombers have some thumpers who can exploit Walker's below-average bat-missing ability. And Yankee Stadium has a park factor of 1.146 for homers, enhancing the appeal for chasing dingers with a Yankees stack.
- Home (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: Medium(DK)/High(FD)
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TOR -130
Jose Berrios was a train wreck last year. He was tied for the highest xERA (5.11) and tied for the second-highest homer rate (1.52 HR/9) among qualified pitchers in 2022. The righty allowed a .325 wOBA to right-handed batters, but that paled in comparison to his struggles against lefties. Left-handed batters tattooed Berrios for a .514 SLG and .373 wOBA. The Royals can rough him up if he's unable to rebound from last season. And, of course, Kauffman Stadium's fifth-highest mark for runs (1.087) won't make life easy for Berrios tonight.
- Aaron Judge has already swatted two homers this year and destroys righties. In 983 plate appearances against righties since 2021, Judge has a .405 OBP, .316 ISO and 183 wRC+.
- Rafael Devers has thrived with the platoon advantage at home. In 420 plate appearances against righties at Fenway Park since 2021, he has a .395 OBP, .275 ISO and 161 wRC+.
- Giancarlo Stanton isn't a must-use player in cash games. However, he's underpriced on FD and an awesome tournament choice at both DFS providers. The veteran slugger has a .260 ISO and 129 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
- Triston Casas had a .342 OBP, .267 ISO and 122 wRC+ in his first 76 plate appearances against righties. That's a lot of bang for your buck at his bargain salary.
- Ketel Marte has a .380 OBP, .256 ISO and 156 wRC+ in 271 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021.
- Kyle Lewis has above-average power and a mouthwatering matchup. Ryan Weathers has coughed up a .515 SLG and .369 wOBA to 298 righties faced in The Show. Lewis should get the first crack at him from the leadoff spot after leading off against Clayton Kershaw in Arizona's only game against a southpaw this season.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Red Sox have a high floor and ceiling in their hitter-friendly home ballpark. Therefore, they're an outstanding source of hitters tonight. The Yankees have a few options for all game types and are appealing to stack in tournaments. The Royals are also a GPP stacking consideration. Finally, gamers are encouraged to spend the requisite cap space for Judge and Devers on most of their rosters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
