Monday night provides gamers a nine-game MLB DFS slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, beginning at 7:10 pm ET on both DFS outlets. There’s a game at Coors Field tonight. So, gamers will have to make the age-old decision to invest in offense at MLB’s most hitter-friendly ballpark or fade it.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Kevin Gausman was a tough cut. However, squaring off with Cristian Javier enhances Gausman's difficulty in winning. Still, the top-ranked pitcher on the table is the best pitcher on the slate and would rank ahead of Gausman, even if Toronto's ace had an easier assignment. Two more aces have compelling cases for use on DFS rosters. And the last pitcher is a high-risk GPP option. He's pitched dreadfully this year. Still, that should depress the percentage of rosters he's on.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jacob deGrom (TEX) at KC
Injuries are the only thing that has slowed deGrom during his career. He allowed five runs in his debut for the Rangers. Yet, deGrom has allowed only four runs (three earned) on nine hits, two walks and 20 strikeouts in two subsequent starts. The righty's advanced metrics are absurd, too.
According to FanGraphs, deGrom has a 2.23 xERA, 1.94 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB%, 40.9 K% and 33.5 CSW% this season. And, of course, he dominated the Royals in his most recent turn. Finally, the betting info is ideal. According to Betting Pros, the Rangers are -210, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at SEA
Burnes has stumbled out of the blocks this year, evidenced by his 5.19 ERA and 4.17 xFIP. Still, Burnes has a 3.13 xERA. The ace's Stuff+ is also excellent this season. Thus, Burnes's 8.0-inning scoreless gem when he held the Diamondbacks to only three hits and zero walks while striking out eight in his most recent start is likely a sign of things to come.
The matchup is in the middle of the road, but the other context is stellar. First, the Brewers are -145, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. Second, T-Mobile Park has the fourth-lowest park factor for runs (0.877). Burnes's salary is lower than it should be on DK, making him a perfect SP2 in cash games. Additionally, he's an outstanding choice in all game types.
GPP Recommendations:
Zack Wheeler (PHI) at CHW
Wheeler hasn't been perfect through three starts in 2023. The righty's 4.02 ERA and 4.26 xFIP have left much to be desired. Nevertheless, Wheeler's 2.92 xERA, 26.5 K% and 29.8 CSW% are GPP-friendly marks.
The matchup is good for Wheeler, too. The White Sox have a few quality hitters but lack lineup depth. The game's projected as a low-scoring affair, sporting a total of just 7.5 runs. Further, Wheeler and the Phillies are -130. So, there's plenty to like about pulling the trigger on Wheeler in tournaments.
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) at OAK
Wesneski hasn't found his footing in 2023. He's allowed 10 runs (five earned) in just 6.0 innings in two starts. Wesneski has yielded three homers, walked six batters and struck out only four. The righty's 10.81 xERA and 6.65 xFIP are wretched as well.
Interestingly, Wesneski has above-average marks for Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ this year. He also has a get-right matchup. The A's are 21st in wRC+ (93) against righties this year, with a 24.7 K%. And the pitching conditions are sweet. The Oakland Coliseum has the sixth-lowest park factor for runs (0.892) and depresses homers (0.752). Finally, the Cubs are -140. Hopefully, Wesneski is overlooked tonight since it would add to the appeal of using him in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Coors Field is MLB's premier hitting venue, and the game's total is 3.0 runs higher than the next-closest total. The matchup is dreamy for Colorado's hitters. Rich Hill has a 7.20 ERA, 8.80 xERA and 6.00 xFIP in three starts this season. The lefty has also coughed up 3.60 HR/9 innings and struggled to miss bats, with just a 12.3 K% and 4.9 SwStr%. As a result, this is an eruption spot for the Rockies.
- Road (PETCO Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/ATL -150
Ryan Weathers has pitched well in two starts this year, owning a 2.70 ERA and 2.96 xERA in 10.0 innings. However, Weathers's 4.72 xFIP, 5.33 SIERA, 13.2 K% and 26.8 CSW% point to darker days ahead. A pitch-to-contact approach could bite Weathers in the butt tonight since the Braves have significant power in their lineup. Six of the projected starters have had at least a 124 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 (or since debuting in 2022).
- C.J. Cron has killed lefties at Coors Field since joining the Rockies in 2021, recording a .382 OBP, .373 ISO, .436 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances.
- Kris Bryant thrives with the platoon advantage. In 240 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .371 OBP, .257 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Austin Riley is another lefty-killer. He's had a .378 OBP, .253 ISO and 154 wRC+ against them in 341 plate appearances since 2021.
- Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit leadoff for the Pirates against lefties this year. That's an advantageous position at Coors Field.
- Ozzie Albies has had a .226 ISO and 126 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021. Additionally, Hill has coughed up a .471 slugging and .338 wOBA to right-handed batters since last year.
- In 132 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show in 2021, Rodolfo Castro has had a .341 OBP, .308 ISO and 151 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Rockies are my favorite source of hitters tonight. Yet, the Buccos can benefit from playing at Coors Field and have a few value options. Still, gamers shouldn't sleep on boppers from the Braves, such as Riley and Albies.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
