The Friday main DFS slate is large. It has 12 games on DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 pm ET. The slate size should flatten the roster percentages. In addition, there’s a lack of no-brainer selections, increasing the likelihood of the chalk being less chalky than on most slates. So, it’s an entertaining night for MLB DFS.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Drew Rasmussen is notably absent from the table above. Tampa Bay's righty has dominated this year, but a matchup with the Blue Jays is challenging. Rasmussen's salary is unattractive, too. Thus, the headliner is another starter off to a good start in a softer matchup. A lefty facing an offense that erupted last night is appealing in GPPs. The third-ranked pitcher is also a tournament choice, while the most-affordable pitcher on the table is a good SP2 in all game types on DK, with a case for tournament use on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kodai Senga (NYM) at OAK
Senga pitched against the Marlins in his first two starts in MLB and dominated them, allowing only two runs on six hits, six walks and 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. According to FanGraphs, he used a four-pitch mix that included a mid-to-upper 90's four-seam fastball, cutter, slider and splitter. The NPB veteran's deep and powerful arsenal produced a 12.2 SwStr% and 32.8 CSW%. So, the plate discipline data was encouraging.
He should stay hot in a cushy matchup against the Athletics. Oakland is 25th in wRC+ (85) against righties and has a 24.8 K% against them. Additionally, Oakland's hitters have had unimpressive marks against righties since 2021.
The betting info adds to the appeal of using Senga. According to BettingPros, the Mets are -200, and the game's total is just 8.0 runs. Finally, the Oakland Coliseum's park factors for runs (0.892) and homers (0.752) are a cherry on top for using Senga in all game types. So, Senga is the top-ranked pitcher on tonight's slate.
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. LAA
The betting info for Houck is terrifying. The Red Sox are small underdogs at even odds. And the game's total is 9.5 runs at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Thankfully, the bar to clear to produce value at his DK salary is low.
Houck's 4.50 ERA in two starts this year hasn't been anything to write home about. Yet, his 3.20 xERA and 3.65 xFIP were better. The righty has also navigated his hitter-friendly park, albeit splitting time between starting and relieving in his career. In 79.1 innings pitched at home, Houck has had a 3.63 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 6.6 BB% and 28.8 K%.
The matchup is a mixed bag. First, the Angels are 19th in wRC+ (90) against righties this season. However, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Taylor Ward are the Angels' only hitters with elite track records against righties. They strike out at high rates, though. The Angels' high strikeout rates against righties elevate Houck's floor and ceiling, cementing Houck's standing as a sweet SP2 in all game types at DK and a high-risk, high-reward tournament pick at FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. MIN
The Twins smashed the Yankees last night. Still, Cortes is a more challenging matchup for Minnesota's offense. The 28-year-old lefty has a 2.61 ERA and 3.84 xERA in two starts this year. Further, Cortes has had a 2.61 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, 26.6 K% and 10.7 SwStr% in 261.2 innings since breaking out in 2021.
The Twins are a good GPP matchup. Sure, they have potentially six starters tonight who've had at least a 118 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 (or since debuting in 2022 for Jose Miranda). Yet, their lineup also has a few high-strikeout hitters. Finally, the Yankees are -182. So, the betting info is a check in the pros column for rolling the dice on Cortes tonight.
Charlie Morton (ATL) at KC
Morton has been rough around the edges to begin his 2023 campaign. Thankfully, the righty's Stuff+ metric is 108 on a 100 scale. A get-right matchup tonight could be just what he needs to have his best start of the young year.
The Royals are 29th in wRC+ (60) against righties this year. They've also punched out at an exploitable 25.1% clip against them. In addition, only one probable starter has had higher than a 106 wRC+ against righties since 2021. And the hitter in question didn't debut in The Show until 2022. So, Morton is essentially a matchup-driven GPP suggestion tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rays are an undefeated, fire-breathing giant in 2023. Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is a trainwreck after a disastrous 2022. Berrios has an 11.17 ERA and 5.95 xERA in two starts, lasting only 9.2 innings. Additionally, since last year, lefties have crushed Berrios for a .522 slugging and .375 wOBA. Righties have also given Berrios fits, tallying a .329 wOBA. So, Berrios is an unlikely candidate to slow down the Rays.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Medium (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/SEA -167
Austin Gomber is a below-average starting pitcher. The lefty has a 6.75 ERA and allowed 2.53 HR/9 in two starts this year. Gomber had a 5.56 ERA and surrendered 1.44 HR/9 in 2022. Interestingly, the lefty's numbers aren't bloated because he pitches his home games at Coors Field. Instead, Gomber's had a 6.04 ERA and coughed up 1.78 HR/9 in 126.2 innings on the road with the Rockies since 2021. The Mariners have a gross 71 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Still, Gomber should cure what ails them. Gamers should fire some bullets on the Mariners in tournaments.
- It's happening. Wander Franco is blossoming into the superstar he was billed to become. In 57 plate appearances this season, he has four homers, three stolen bases, a .368 OBP, .358 ISO and 192 wRC+.
- Brandon Lowe has rebounded from the worst season at the dish of his career in 2022. The powerful second baseman has crushed five homers with a .463 OBP, .485 ISO and 250 wRC+ in 41 plate appearances in 2023. Additionally, he's had a .360 OBP, .263 ISO and 146 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
- Manny Machado has had a .360 OBP, .211 ISO and 129 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since 2021. He's off to a slow start but could be turning things around after mashing his first tater of the year last night.
- Teoscar Hernandez is a good pick at his salary on DK and a no-brainer at a sub-$3,000 salary on FD. He's had a .374 OBP, .380 ISO and 194 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since 2021.
- Vinnie Pasquantino continues to be underpriced at both DFS outlets. In 271 plate appearances against righties since reaching the majors last year, he's had a .374 OBP, .203 ISO and 143 wRC+.
- Bobby Dalbec is a power-chasing punt. The three-true-outcomes machine has had a .338 OBP, .252 ISO and 130 wRC+ in 334 plate appearances against lefties.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Rays will eventually slow down but probably not tonight. Their lineup has a sweet mix of studs and values, making them the best source of hitters tonight. Still, the Mariners are a good stack in tournaments, and Hernandez is an excellent option in all game types, even as a one-off choice.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
