The Friday night MLB DFS main slate is a beauty. It is large, including 12 games at DraftKings and FanDuel. Further, it begins at the customary 7:05 pm ET start time. The slate has something for everyone. It includes offenses in favorable matchups and talented pitching at all salary points.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The game's brightest star is on the bump in a tasty matchup and sits atop the starting pitcher rankings tonight. He's the top pitcher in all game types. The second pitcher on the table is a high-upside pivot in a good matchup. The final two pitchers are useful SP2 choices at DK at bargain salaries.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. KC
Ohtani is cooking with gasoline this year. According to FanGraphs, he has a 0.86 ERA, 2.56 xERA, 0.90 WHIP, 32.9 K% and 32.0 CSW%. The dual-threat superstar's control is shaky this year. However, Ohtani shouldn't be challenged by the Royals.
First, Kansas City is 29th in wRC+ (61) against right-handed pitchers in 2023. Second, they've earned only a 6.7 BB% against righties while punching out at a 25.0% clip. Understandably, the Angels are commanding favorites. Per Betting Pros, the Angels are -286. Ohtani's ceiling is unmatched tonight. So, he's the top pitcher in all game types.
Joey Lucchesi (NYM) at SF
Lucchesi is making his first start in the majors this year. However, he's not coming in rusty. The veteran lefty has a 2.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.9 BB%, 25.0 K% and 13.5 SwStr% in three starts, totaling 15.2 innings. Lucchesi was sharp in his most recent start in Triple-A, spinning 6.2 scoreless innings and striking out six batters on 83 pitches.
The southpaw has a Charmin-soft matchup to greet him in his return to the Bigs. The Giants are tied for 27th in wRC+ (66) and have a 29.2 K% against left-handed pitchers this year. Lucchesi isn't a risk-free selection. Still, he should clear the low bar set by his tiny salary and provide DFS gamers value.
GPP Recommendations:
Tyler Mahle (MIN) vs. WSH
Mahle has pitched 15.1 innings and tallied a 4.11 ERA in three starts this year. Fortunately, his underlying data is better than his ho-hum ERA. Mahle has a 3.34 xERA, 3.17 xFIP, 7.7 BB% 27.7 K% and 30.2 CSW%. He also has an eye-catching 112 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.
The matchup and betting info is also perfect for Mahle. The Nationals are dead last in wRC+ (58) against righties this year. And the Twins are -205. Therefore, Mahle has a tournament-friendly ceiling tonight.
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. DET
Wells is a convenient pivot option from Lucchesi at DK. Baltimore's righty's salary is only $800 more than New York's lefty's salary. Like Lucchesi, Wells has a cushy matchup. The Tigers are 27th in wRC+ (80) against right-handed pitchers this year.
Wells is basically an average pitcher. He has a 3.86 ERA, 4.28 xERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.6 BB%, 18.0 K% and 26.6 CSW% in 16.1 innings this season. Wells isn't a high-strikeout pitcher but can outproduce his salary by tying up Detroit's hapless lineup. Earning a win would help Wells' DFS bottom line immensely. Thankfully, the Orioles are -178.
Top Lineup Stacks
Nick Pivetta has occasionally had decent ERA estimators to provide a glimmer of hope for improvement. That's not the case this year. Pivetta's 4.50 ERA is lower than his 6.03 xERA and 5.19 xFIP. The righty has below-average control and a problem with keeping the ball in the ballpark. Pivetta has walked 12.5% of the batters he's faced this year while coughing up 1.93 HR/9. So, the Brewers can light the scoreboard up tonight against him.
- Home (Yankee Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/NYY -134
Since last season, right-handed batters have tattooed Yusei Kikuchi for a .527 slugging and .382 wOBA. Unfortunately for him, the Yankees are projected to start seven right-handed batters and one switch-hitter. The righty-laden nature of the Bronx Bombers' lineup is perfect for opposing Kikuchi.
- Road (Target Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/MIN -205
The Twins are a bargain stack with an excellent matchup. Trevor Williams has a 3,52 ERA in three starts in 2023. But his ERA estimators all indicate he's due for regression. Williams has a 5.13 xERA, 4.86 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA. The veteran righty is also at the mercy of batted balls since he has only a 14.1 K% and 6.9 SwStr%. Finally, Williams' 79 Stuf+ is the second-lowest mark among tonight's starting pitchers.
- Rowdy Tellez eats at American Family Field against right-handed pitchers. In 304 plate appearances against righties at home while on the Brewers, he's had a .303 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Willy Adames has also smashed righties in Milwaukee. In 372 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at home since the Brewers acquired him, he's had a .280 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Gleyber Torres has had a .341 OBP, .208 ISO and 129 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. He's also in good form this year. In 76 plate appearances, Torres has two homers, a .395 OBP, 137 wRC+ and five stolen bases.
- Josh Jung is a cheap power source tonight. The young third baseman has launched four homers and tallied a .306 ISO in 50 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show last year.
- Teoscar Hernandez devours lefties. In 253 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .368 OBP, .369 ISO and 188 wRC+. Unfortunately, Hernandez's surface stats this year are below average. Yet, his .269 xBA, .525 xSLG and .365 xwOBA indicate better days ahead.
- Jesse Winker has had a .379 OBP and 133 wRC+ against righties since 2021. His numbers were inflated mainly by his production in 2021. Still, Winker's a lineup-spot-driven punt as Milwaukee's No. 2 hitter against righties.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Brewers, Yankees and Twins are all outstanding sources of hitters tonight. Milwaukee is my favorite stack tonight. Finally, Jung is a stellar one-off pick.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
