Lions Draft Jahmyr Gibbs: Dynasty Rookie Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Jahmyr Gibbs.

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Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Lions Draft Jahmyr Gibbs

Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Jahmyr Gibbs.

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp

Player comparison: Dalvin Cook

Bio
Jahmyr Gibbs was overlooked through his junior year of high school, garnering only a tepid three-star billing from recruiting services. He was ranked outside the top-600 consensus recruits. From nearby Dalton, Ga., Gibbs committed to Georgia Tech.

Gibbs blew up as a senior. He was upgraded to a four-star recruit. A floodgate of new scholarship offers poured in. Now, he was a top-75 consensus recruit. Gibbs ultimately stayed loyal, signing with the Yellow Jackets.

Gibbs was billed as a centerpiece building block of second-year GT HC Geoff Collins’ rebuilding process. Gibbs looked the part immediately, returning a kick 75 yards on his first touch as a college player.

But while Gibbs flashed whenever he touched the ball, the rest of Collins’ rebuilding effort sputtered. Gibbs earned All-ACC accommodations as a returner both his years in Atlanta, as well as third-team all-ACC honors as a runner as a sophomore. But the Yellow Jackets went just 6-16 over those two seasons.

So last offseason, with Collins on one of the hottest seats in America, Gibbs, eying an NFL showcase, fled Georgia Tech’s sinking ship and signed with Alabama (Collins would ultimately be fired in September). Last season, Gibbs teamed with QB Bryce Young to give Alabama the nation’s most dangerous backfield.

The Crimson Tide offered Gibbs the ability to showcase his entire skillet. He didn’t disappoint, averaging 6.1 YPC while catching 44 balls. As expected, Gibbs declared early for the draft after the season – but along with his other headed-to-the-NFL teammates like Young end EDGE Will Anderson, Gibbs played in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama slaughtered Kansas State.

Strengths
Horror-movie slasher with game-breaking speed. So slippery. High-octane mover who sets defenders up, gets them leaning one way, and clowns them.

Gibbs’ 4.36 forty ranked second among running backs at the NFL Combine behind Devon Achane (4.32). Special ability to access it pronto. Hits the gas and he’s at top speed in a blink.

Gibbs is a puzzle for defenders. He can outrun them, he can evade them in a phone booth, and he introduces doubt when they’re on the prowl by altering tempos. Gibbs is going down on solid contact, but it’s so very difficult to square him up in space.

He has an extremely diverse skillset. Thanks to it, Gibbs was named third-team AP All-American as an all-purpose player last season.

Huge value-add in passing game – very dangerous. Gibbs is one of this class’ best in that phase. Last season, he ranked No. 3 in PFF receiving grade amongst this year’s running back class. Gibbs was peppered with 52 targets by Alabama last year. He converted 44 into catches with only one drop. Over his career, Gibbs dropped only two balls on 123 targets.

He’s a forward-thinking route-runner who keeps his cards close to the vest until the time comes to leverage his movement to shake and his jets to separate. Incredibly, for a running back this size, Gibbs is also capable of making catches in traffic. He caught eight-of-10 contested targets over his career.

That’s an especially useful skill for when you want to use him as a true receiver. Last year at ‘Bama, Gibbs took 87 snaps in the slot or out wide (and 375 out of the backfield).

Gibbs is also an extremely skilled return man. He was his team’s primary kick returner from the day he stepped on campus at Georgia Tech until the day he announced he was leaving Alabama for the NFL Draft. Unless his new team wants to save the usage, Gibbs will be its primary kick returner immediately.

Weaknesses
Gibbs was listed at 200 pounds by Alabama, and disappointingly weighed into the NFL Combine at 199. His lack of play strength is his biggest weakness. It manifests in a few different areas.

It’s not fair to say that Gibbs goes down on first contact, but it is fair to say he’s going down on first solid contact. He makes that difficult on the defense, but Gibbs is out of answers when he gets hit flush.

Because of this, he is so very clearly more comfortable in space than between the tackles. This could especially be seen earlier in his career at Georgia Tech, when Gibbs was a marked man and boxes were more heavily stacked against him.

In 2021, his last as a Yellow Jacket, Gibbs averaged 3.1 YPC on carries to either side of the center and 6.3 YPC on every other run. The year before, 3.5 on the former, and 5.7 on the latter. Gibbs loses his vision and decisiveness in cramped quarters, and he’s dead-to-rights when hands get put on him.

Gibbs is also a poor pass-blocker. He lacks the play strength to jar blitzing defenders, and he has no anchor to drop over the boat at the contact point. Gibbs could get marginally better in this phase if he worked at it – but, honestly, how often are you going to keep a back with this receiving skill back to block when passing?

Alabama, who uses its players situationally as well as anyone, cut Gibbs’ pass-pro reps all the way down to 30 last year. He still allowed three pressures and a sack, posting a dreadful 24.1 PFF pass-pro grade.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Jahmyr Gibbs

Should we be excited about Gibbs’ fantasy outlook after the Lions selected him with pick No. 12, which was much earlier than he was expected to go in the draft? Or should we be concerned that Gibbs is joining a Lions backfield that also includes D’Andre Swift, who has a vaguely similar skill set?

Gibbs is an exciting RB prospect whose talents would seem to be a perfect fit for the modern-day NFL. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Gibbs clocked a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, and that blazing speed shows up on his college tape. But Gibbs isn’t merely about straight-line speed. His agility and his sharp cuts are going to give NFL defenders nightmares.

What has fantasy managers most enthusiastic about Gibbs is his pass-catching ability, which should translate into immediate fantasy value. In addition to his 926 rushing yards and 7 TD runs for Alabama last season, Gibbs had 44-444-3 receiving. In his three seasons with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs caught 104 passes and had only two drops. Gibbs has frequently been compared to Alvin Kamara, whose speed, agility and pass catching made him an impact fantasy performer upon his NFL arrival. Gibbs might not have Kamara’s rare contact balance, but the comparisons are otherwise fair.

Gibbs will be a coveted asset in dynasty leagues, even though he’s going to share work with Swift. Based on the Lions’ reluctance to give Swift a substantial role last season, it’s a good bet that Gibbs will have a majority (or at least a plurality) of Detroit’s RB touches in 2023. In 1QB dynasty formats, Gibbs figures to be a top-4 rookie pick, with Bijan Robinson the only player certain to be taken earlier. In superflex leagues, Gibbs is likely to be a mid-first-round pick, going somewhere from 1.04 to 1.08 in most drafts.