The calendar flipping to April indicates that the 2023 NFL Draft and rookie hype season has officially reached all-new heights, especially for those invested in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson, Dameon Pierce, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

But there’s still some ambiguity with every prospect entering the league that should be considered when generating their fantasy value. And how the NFL thinks/views certain prospects based on their projected draft capital — and real draft capital post-draft — should be factored in.

Leveraging projected draft capital provided by Grindingthemocks.com/NFLmockdraftdatabase.com and using the historical rookie track record data from the late great Mike Tagliere to devise a value strategy is the best way to approach the 2023 rookie class. It will prepare you for dynasty rookie drafts and season-long leagues after each newcomer finds their NFL landing spot, and it will also provide you an edge against early pre-draft best ball average draft position (ADP) on Underdog Fantasy, Drafters and the FFPC.

Again, shout out to Tags for the 2021 version of this article that I will be referring to ad nauseam.

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How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre-Draft 2023)

Running Backs

The data suggests a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t surprising because draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill, and the running back position in fantasy football is heavily dependent on volume.

NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of Round 1 or in the middle of Day 2, with a goal to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

Rookie Running Backs since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 237 touches per season — a number that ranked 20th at the position last season. However, the benchmark at 20 is slightly inflated due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to the top-15 based on the previous 16-game season sample size (237 touches ranked 15th in 2021).

Najee Harris — 381 touches in 2021, No. 1 in the NFL — is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

Last year we had zero RBs selected in the first round, but three finished with over 225 touches between Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. Breece Hall was on pace for 242 touches before his injury.

Unlike last year, the expectation (and near guarantee) is that we will have a Round 1 running back selected in Bijan Robinson.

As for Round 2, the consensus has Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs (RB18 ADP) locked to be selected inside the top 40 picks. He’s followed by Zach Charbonnet (RB28) and Devon Achane (RB49) as the other two Round 2 picks.

Gibbs is being drafted like he’s a projected first-rounder — which is possible. And even if he doesn’t go on Day 1, early Day 2 draft capital is almost just as good. Because running backs drafted early on Day 2 are the first-round running backs from five years ago.

As we enter Round 3, Tyjae Spears (RB50) is the only prospect with expected draft capital in that range.

He is followed by DeWayne McBride (RB70), Tank Bigsby (RB59), Roschon Johnson (RB51), Kendre Miller (RB57) and Zach Evans (RB61) on the Day 2/3 cusp. Considering the average rookie finish for a 3rd-round RB is RB58, these six rookies are being priced appropriately by the market based on expected draft capital. And although they offer much shakier floors than Round 2 running backs, the nearly identical RB1% suggests the upside outcome is very similar between RD2 and RD3 running backs.

However, the major overall dropoff in running back production from Round 2 to Round 3 cannot be ignored. Most analysts and draft pundits cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion, but the facts advocate we should view them separately.

The volume and fantasy finish margin from Round 2 to Round 3 running backs is more significant than Round 3 to Round 4 running backs. Tyrion Davis-Price is the example from last season of a Round 3 running back that completely failed to fire.

“Of the 30 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last ten years, just five of them have finished as a top-24 running back in their rookie season, while 21 of them finished outside of the top-36 running backs.”

Rookie running backs like Israel Abanikanda (RB47), Sean Tucker (RB56), Chase Brown (RB68), and Evan Hull (RB74) are facing uphill battles to meet their respective ADPs with expected draft positions (EDPs) outside the top-3 rounds.

Rounds 4-7 are where things become a crapshoot, but there is some semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from Rounds 5-plus. And it’s because Round 4 running backs look much more like Round 3 running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their Round 5-plus counterparts.

In the past four seasons, 45 running backs have been selected in Rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco were the best of the bunch last season.

Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in Rounds 5-7. Players like Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard and Michael Carter most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as rookies.

However, it’s still a massive uphill battle to wait until even early Day 3 to hear a running back’s name called.

From 2013 to 2021, just two running backs finished as top-24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Pierce (RB27) and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status last season. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 — Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) — but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag.

Part of this stems from these later round backs having to earn touches and work their way up a depth chart. After all, the draft capital constitutes that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunity by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, then that should be added to the equation. But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

Tyler Allegier was that guy for me last season. I loved him coming out as a prospect, but he faltered slightly after he fell to the fifth round. However, he did get a favorable landing spot on a weak Atlanta Falcons depth chart.

In this year’s class, I’d opt to take shots on guys like Spears (RB50), Johnson (RB51) and Miller (RB57) at their suppressed costs because chances are their ADPs only go up after they are drafted. Abanikanda’s a little pricey, considering he’s got a slim chance to be a top-100 real-life pick with an expected draft capital currently at 151st overall. It’s possible that changes based on his impressive pro day, but so far, NFL teams don’t seem overly in love with the running back from Pitt. It could be related to Abanikanda’s 4.44 pro-time 40-yard time (per Dane Brugler’s Beast Draft Guide) disappointing those that excepted more speed. At just 20 years old, Abanikanda is still very far from a polished product.

Therefore, there’s a real possibility that he becomes much more attainable post-draft when the market softens on him after getting selected in Round 4 or 5. So that might be the optimal time to buy low.

Wide Receivers

Ask anybody a few years ago how long it takes for a wide receiver to break out, and the typical response would usually be three seasons. But how the college game has evolved in recent years has influenced how impactful wide receivers can be right from the get-go. LSU standouts Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the peak examples of the phenomenon, shattering records as first-year players. Ohio State WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found similar success in their most recent rookie seasons.

Rookie Wide Receivers since 2013

If a receiver hasn’t hit by “Year 2” nowadays, the panic button goes off as both real-life and fantasy teams look to move on.

However, compared to running backs, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital. 26% of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is slightly more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (17%).

The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are certainly drafted in the first two rounds. There have been 33 rookie wide receivers who’ve finished inside the top-36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years, and 27 of them were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%).

Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 58% clip.

But similar to the running back position – there’s another drastic fall from Round 2 to Round 3. Just 3-of-39 3rd-round wide receivers have finished top-36 since 2013, including zero hits over the past two seasons. Come on, Jalen Tolbert.

There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not one of them has finished as a top 50 wide receiver in their rookie year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-round WR to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, as he not only finished top 50 but 21st overall.

But in 2022, it was more of the same with 4th-round rookie WRs between Romeo Doubs (WR76), Erik Ezukanma (WR212) and Calvin Austin (N/A).

The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. ASB’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

This year’s class is also vastly different, with not many first-round locks outside Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Recent WR draft classes have spoiled fantasy managers with talent, but that won’t necessarily be the case in the 2023 NFL Draft.

But the talent dropoff is not necessarily being baked into early best ball ADP, with 2023 prospects like Quentin Johnston (WR46), Jordan Addison (WR47), Zay Flowers (WR49) and Jalin Hyatt (WR60) being drafted in a similar range to the top-6 WRs from last year’s class (WR34-WR54 range).

However, that is only ADP as it relates to WRs.

Overall, ADP has this class of WRs going one to two rounds later than last year’s crop. Except for Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR30 in ADP. JSN’s pre-draft ADP is in the same range that London and Olave were drafted last season (80th-100th overall). It’s also similar to the same pre-draft ADP that Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith owned two years ago.

From a value perspective, North Carolina’s Josh Downs is egregiously underpriced as the WR69 in early best ball ADP with expected draft capital in the first half of Round 2 (WR6, 48th overall). I can’t help but see the similarities between Downs and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson from last year’s draft class. Dotson was overlooked pre-draft as the WR74 (rookie WR6) in early ADP despite projected draft capital at the end of Round 1. And like Dotson, Downs’ market has stayed quiet during the pre-draft process because he has not taken any top-30 visits.

Josh Downs is getting the Jahan Dotson pre-draft fantasy treatment.

– Rookie WR6 ADP, same as Dotson
– Overall WR69 ADP, Dotson WR74 pre-draft
– 15-20 ADP spots behind other rookie WRs
– High Rd 2 proj. draft capital
– No buzz w/ lack of top-30 visits
– Undersized

He's a value.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 12, 2023

At face value, that suggests teams aren’t interested in Downs. However, in the case of Dotson not taking 30 visits last season — it was because teams felt very comfortable with their evaluations of him. The Commanders (who selected Dotson 16th overall) were so high on the Penn State WR that they had no reason to bring him in for a top-30 visit.

Teams already know what they are getting with Downs — an undersized super-productive slot receiver with supreme route-running skills and an inept ability to create separation from defensive backs. He’s a high-floor prospect in a WR class with many question marks, suggesting he might be drafted much earlier than mock draft industrial complex believes.

Cedric Tillman (WR87), Marvin Mims (WR80), Tyler Scott (WR100), Tank Dell (WR102) and Rashee Rice (WR105) round out the guys with the best chance to be selected in Round 2, although it would not be shocking to see the majority of the fall to Round 3.

Tillman is by far my favorite from this tier because his big-bodied frame and “X” wide receiver archetype help him stand out in a Mickey Mouse class. He is currently ranked as my WR8 on my 2023 NFL Draft Big Board. Scott looks like a screaming value at his current cost with projected mid-third-round capital (74th overall). His Cincinnati teammate Alec Pierce was selected in the second round last season.

Kayshon Boutte looks like he is being vastly overrated as the rookie WR10 despite his 13th WR rank standing (93rd overall) per NFLmockdraftdatabase.com.

Tight Ends

You can almost always look the other way in redraft leagues when it comes to rookie tight ends – Kyle Pitts from two years ago being the one exception to the general rule of thumb. He was used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, which is why he was able to find success as the TE7 overall in his first season. The dude is also just a unicorn, and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him.

Pitts joins Evan Engram as the only rookie tight end who’s finished as a top-12 option over the last nine years.

Although there was another rookie tight end in 2021 that came close to finishing top-12: Pat Freiermuth. The Pittsburgh Steelers tight end finished 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns.

The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.

Rookie Tight Ends since 2013

But alas, the great rookie performances from tight ends in 2021 did not carry over to 2022. This past season was a return to the norm for first-year tight ends, with Chigoziem Okonkwo finishing as last year’s best-performing rookie as TE24.

Simply put, a rookie tight end almost always needs to be drafted in Round 1 for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 64.3 target average — TE15 last season. Round 2 is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically.

Luckily this year’s class figures to feature at least one, if not multiple, rookie tight ends being selected in Round 1. Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid are routinely selected in Round 1 mock drafts, with Darnell Washington often going at the top of Round 2/end of Round 1.

So unlike last year’s class which was almost impossible to trust for instant production, 2023 will have rookie tight end fantasy contributors. With the potential that up to six to seven rookie tight ends get drafted within the first two rounds, we are looking at anywhere between 2-4 first-year tight ends cracking the top-24 in 2023.

Especially considering there are some juicy tight end landing spots for fantasy in Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas and Miami.

Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25) are being drafted very close to their floors as projected Round 1 picks. Based on the tight end hit rates, one of them will at least meet their ADP as a back-end fantasy TE2. The remaining rookie tight ends are all being selected outside the top 30 between Washington (TE31), Sam Laporta (TE36), Luke Musgrave (TE38), Zack Kuntz (TE48) and Tucker Kraft (TE54).

Washington is the only one that might be slightly overvalued, assuming he goes in Round 1. But all the other tight ends are great values to at least meet their ADP, with Kraft the best of them all. He is the 70th overall player per NFLmockdraftdatabase.com.

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