Do you miss the NFL? I know I do. Free agency was fun, and we still have the draft to look forward to next week. But I can’t wait that long to gauge how drafts are going to go next summer, so it’s time for my first mock draft of 2023!
Most of my leagues follow PPR scoring and are of the redraft variety, so that’s where I started, using Yahoo’s default settings:
- 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST, 6 Bench
I fired up the free Draft Simulator and gave myself the ninth pick in a ten-team league as I was curious how the end of the first round would play out. Below is a round-by-round blow of my selections, with some context on my thought process.
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR, Late Pick (2023)
1.9: Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
It came down to Walker or Cooper Kupp for my first selection. With five RBs already off the board, though, the decision wasn’t hard. There would no doubt be another high-end WR sitting for me around the corner, and the other running back options, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson, didn’t offer the upside of Walker due to a lack of passing work for Chubb and potential timeshares for Pollard and Stevenson.
This selection was more difficult. I was tempted to take another RB as Chubb, Stevenson and Derrick Henry were still available, but I didn’t want to wait until the end of the third round for my WR1. Hill was amazing last year, and Dolphins’ HC Mike McDaniel’s creativity gives me comfort that he’ll be productive again in 2023. If Hill’s not your cup of tea, there were several other great options at the position still on the board, including CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams.
Had I not taken Hill, I would have gone with Jaylen Waddle with my third pick, but I didn’t want to take two Dolphins’ wideouts with my first three picks. The other WRs on the board would probably be there around the corner, so I went with the best RB on the board in Jones. Dalvin Cook was also an option, but he may hold out or get traded, so I took the safer choice. With Jordan Love likely under center for the Packers next season, Jones should see plenty of touches.
No QB had been taken yet, and the top TE options were off the board, so it was a good time to draft another WR. DeVonta Smith may have been a slightly safer choice, but I love Olave’s upside with Derek Carr as his QB. Carr tends to target his top option often, and that should benefit Olave next season.
With two RBs and two WRs already on my roster, there were several directions I could have gone with my fifth pick. Several high-end QBs remained available, and I wasn’t enamored with the remaining RBs or TEs. So, I took the safe route and drafted Godwin. Whether Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is under center, Godwin figures to be heavily targeted in a Bucs’ offense that will likely be more conservative next season. He could be a monster in PPR leagues.
My starting lineup was full of RBs and WRs, so I preferred to target a QB or TE with my sixth pick. I could have also built depth but opted for the high-end QB. Usually, I wait on quarterbacks, but Burrow had the fourth most points at the position in 2022 and should have most of his weapons back in 2023. I felt the drop-off after Burrow was substantial. I don’t know what will happen with Lamar Jackson, and though I love Justin Herbert as a player, the Chargers’ offense sometimes baffles me. As long as he stays healthy, we know Burrow will cook.
I was thrilled and amazed that Kittle fell this far in the draft. Sure, the QB situation in San Francisco is unsettled, but c’mon, this guy is a stud. He comes with some injury risk, but so do Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller, who were off the board. Kyle Pitts was also taken before Kittle, which surprised me, considering how ineffective he was last season.
With my skill positions filled, it was time to build my bench, and I hoped to land a solid RB with this pick. Going into 2022, Swift was a borderline RB1, so I felt fortunate to snag him here. Injuries and a reduced role led to a reduction in snaps for him last season, but I love drafting bench players with upside, and this guy has it in spades.
9.9: AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
The top options dried up quickly between my eighth and ninth picks. Initially, I planned to go with a wideout here, but Dillon was too tempting, considering Jones was already on my roster. He’s a top handcuff and, in a pinch, could start alongside Jones, as both should see a lot of touches. Plus, no one was sticking out among the wide receivers, and I knew I had another pick around the corner.
10.2: Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
As expected, the wide receiver I would have drafted with my last pick was still available. Dotson had an excellent rookie season and was a premier threat in the red zone. Despite playing five fewer games, he scored more TDs than Terry McLaurin last year. I love his potential, even if I’m unsure how things will play out with the Commanders’ offense in 2023.
11.9: Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)
Typically I don’t draft a backup tight end, but Freiermuth is a top-ten option at the position, and Kittle tends to get banged up. Thus it seemed like a reasonable choice. At worst, he could make for good trade bait.
12.2: Jamaal Williams (RB – NO)
I planned to take one more RB and WR to fill my bench, and the options at wideout didn’t thrill me. Williams won’t likely come close to repeating his 2022, but with Alvin Kamara looking at a suspension, he could see more usage than most expect, especially to start the season.
13.9: Allen Lazard (WR – NYJ)
Another WR was needed for my last bench slot, and I rolled the dice that Aaron Rodgers would end up with the Jets. Lazard won’t be the top option there, but we know Rodgers likes “his guys,” Lazard should be good for a spot start or two and would be valuable if Garrett Wilson were to miss time.
14.2: Justin Tucker (K – BAL)
With two picks left, I needed a kicker and a defense. Given the choices on the board, I opted for one of the greatest kickers of all time rather than choose from several similarly ranked DSTs.
15.9: Baltimore Ravens (DST – BAL)
“With the second to last pick in the 2023 PPR Mock Draft, Scott Youngson selects the Baltimore Ravens defense.” Enough said.
Draft Grade
The simulator gave me a “B+” and pegged me for third place. I’ll take that, though I thought I deserved better. They questioned taking Burrow when I did, which is fair, but their recommended pick was Dameon Pierce, who would have been on my bench. For what it’s worth, they agreed that D’Andre Swift and Pat Freiermuth were steals.
It’s great to get a taste this early in the offseason. Only a dozen or so mock drafts left before the real thing…
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