Today I used our mock draft tool to complete a PPR redraft mock draft which I picked from the 1.02 spot. This draft has a lot of strong upside plays and some risk, but I think the overall construction of the team is rock solid. A few quick takeaways from this process:
- In a vacuum, the running back position dries up quickly after the top 10-12 options are off the board. As we’ve seen in recent years, however, focusing on the receiver position early in drafts can be a league-winning strategy.
- Quarterbacks are going to go earlier than expected this year. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen were all off the board by the end of Round 4. I’ve been inclined to wait this position out in years past, but I have been tweaking that strategy this offseason.
- The Tight End position is a crapshoot but I think I am warming up to the idea of rostering Chigoziem Okonkwo if his ADP stays where it is. He has virtually no competition for targets outside of Treylon Burks and the Titans use him all over the formation.
- Drafting this time of year gives you the chance to capitalize on the one thing fantasy managers hate: Uncertainty. Guys like Alexander Mattison and Samaje Perine could see their ADP jump three or four rounds by July.
Today I used our mock draft tool to complete a PPR redraft mock draft which I picked from the 1.02 spot. This draft has a lot of strong upside plays and some risk, but I think the overall construction of the team is rock solid. A few quick takeaways from this process:
- In a vacuum, the running back position dries up quickly after the top 10-12 options are off the board. As we’ve seen in recent years, however, focusing on the receiver position early in drafts can be a league-winning strategy.
- Quarterbacks are going to go earlier than expected this year. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen were all off the board by the end of Round 4. I’ve been inclined to wait this position out in years past, but I have been tweaking that strategy this offseason.
- The Tight End position is a crapshoot but I think I am warming up to the idea of rostering Chigoziem Okonkwo if his ADP stays where it is. He has virtually no competition for targets outside of Treylon Burks and the Titans use him all over the formation.
- Drafting this time of year gives you the chance to capitalize on the one thing fantasy managers hate: Uncertainty. Guys like Alexander Mattison and Samaje Perine could see their ADP jump three or four rounds by July.
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Given the aforementioned roster requirements for this mock, I thought hard about Justin Jefferson here. With it being a PPR league, Austin Ekeler gets the slight nod, however.
Coming off a season where he caught 107 passes out of the backfield, Ekeler is in the Christian McCaffery tier of fantasy running backs. That is a lot of word salad to say he is elite. The only downside here is that clicking Ekeler’s name means pushing the trade request into the back of my mind. Ekeler’s best fit is in the Chargers’ powder blue uniforms so, hopefully, that is where he ends up in 2023.
All the talk about Jalen Hurts’ inability to support a WR1 was put to rest in 2022. A.J. Brown finished 8th in the league with 146 targets and set career highs with 88 receptions for 1,496 yards. That is a nice stat line for a redraft WR1 but there could be more meat on the bone in Philadelphia. If Hurts continues to develop as a passer, we could see Brown go over 100 catches in 2023. There could also be some additional red zone looks if Nick Sirianni chooses to air it out more inside the 20-yard line. At the tail-end of Round 2 and heading into his age-26 season, sign me up.
Garrett Wilson is coming off a year where he put a receiving line of 83/1103/4 in his rookie season. This was despite mediocre quarterback play and an offense that lacked weapons. With the Jets upgrading their receiving core and looking to be the likely landing spot for Aaron Rodgers, Wilson is going to be very popular come August. The upside with Wilson is that of a top-10 receiver in fantasy but admittedly that does depend on the acquisition of Rodgers. If Zach Wilson is the quarterback for the Jets, this pick could look really bad. I’m betting against that being the case.
Amari Cooper is one of the most talented receivers in football but before last year, he was maddeningly inconsistent for fantasy purposes. That changed in 2022, as Cooper enters his age-30 season coming off a year where he had 10 weeks where he scored 10+ PPR points. He finished the year 16th in target share (26.1%) and also had a career-high nine touchdowns. As with the Wilson pick before this one, Cooper’s 2023 outlook could be boosted by improved quarterback play but he is a near lock for 1,000 yards.
This isn’t a complicated selection: If Bijan Robinson is available in the 5th Round of any draft, you smash that button. We call that #analysis. Robinson is one of the most gifted all-around running backs to come out of college in the last five years. He is a talented receiver out of the backfield and at 6’0, 220 pounds he has the size to handle a three-down workload. He will push to be a top-10 running back in his rookie season.
Yes, I believe Lamar Jackson is going to play this year and it will likely be for the Ravens. Both sides have too much to lose with any other outcome. The injury risk is baked in here so taking Jackson toward the end of the sixth round feels like tremendous value. In the last two seasons in which he played at least 15 games, he rushed for over 1,000 yards. This gives him more upside than anyone not named Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts. Getting 16 weeks of Jackson for fantasy would make him a slam dunk to finish as a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
Darren Waller is going to be a polarizing player in the coming months. Some people are going to point to the dearth of weapons in the Giants’ passing game and a fresh start for a reason why he will far outshine his ADP. Others will lean on the injury history and the fact Daniel Jones is not a great passer for why Waller is a bust waiting to happen. I don’t have strong feelings either way, but at this stage of the draft, he felt like he had the most upside of any tight end left. As I continue through my process in the coming months, I think I will probably be out in taking a mid-round tight end. It feels like the better move is to either try to snag one of the top three options or wait on Chigoziem Okonwko in the later rounds.
Calvin Ridley hasn’t played since Week 6 of the 2021 season but he finds himself in a great spot with Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence took a massive step forward under Doug Pederson’s watchful eye last season and the Jaguars have some legitimate weaponry on offense. Ridley should team with Christian Kirk to form the top receiver combo in the AFC South, something that should benefit both players. I am more than happy to take Ridley as my Flex here and I think he is a safe bet to outproduce his ADP. There is also no chance he should be drafted after Zay Jones as he was in this mock.
As things currently stand, Rashaad Penny will be the lead back for Philadelphia next year. This represents a big upgrade for Penny who will be in a run-friendly offense behind the league’s best offensive line. Penny’s biggest issue in his career has been his health as he’s never had more than 119 carries in a single season. Despite that, he’s averaged 5.7 yards per carry over his career which makes him a nice late-round target.
Once the NFL Draft concludes, I don’t anticipate Jaxon Smith-Njigba being available this late in our mocks. For now, he makes an easy target this late but he should settle somewhere closer to the 6th or 7th Round this summer. His combination of elite route running and ability to work from multiple spots in the formation makes JSN my top rookie receiver this year.
Alexander Mattison has plenty of appeal as a top handcuff but if (when?) the Vikings move on from Dalvin Cook, he will be in consideration as much more. Mattison has filled in for Cook nicely over the years, with three 100-yard games. In games where has amassed at least 23 touches, he has averaged 23.7 PPR points. While that type of production might not be sustainable over 16 games, you can see what type of player he could be if given a feature role. He’s a nice mid-to-late-round target right now.
We don’t know where Odell Beckham, Jr. is playing next year but I’m willing to invest a late pick on him. Despite not having a 1,000-yard season since 2019 and coming off an ACL injury, Beckham has as much upside as any receiver who might end up as my WR6. He should be fully healthy for the start of training camp and depending on where he signs, could find himself in a situation where he sees 100+ targets this season.
Speaking of upside, Curtis Samuel joins the squad in Round 13. Samuel feels like the type of pick that will come through with a couple of WR2 weeks when you have him on your bench and will finish with 5.3 PPR points when you start him. Still, he does have a nice ceiling and he can turn a couple of touches into a fantasy-friendly day with his game-breaking ability. I prefer him to someone like Michael Gallup or Robert Woods at this point.
Might as well finish where we started in picking up Isaiah Spiller. This is cheap insurance in the event Ekeler gets traded and the Chargers are left without another option through the draft or free agency. Spiller is better than he showed in 2022.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
