It’s crazy to think we’re already in the fourth week of the fantasy baseball season. We’ve reached a point where you can safely start forming opinions about players. Opinions like Jose Abreu may not be worth rostering for the rest of the season. Or Max Muncy looks like he may break 40 home runs for the first time in his career.
While you can start to form opinions on certain players, it’s also important to be able to recognize when a player is just a flash in the pan. Some guys may have some decent-looking numbers, but all of their production came in a three-game stretch. Those are the kinds of guys I try and avoid. Those types of players end up leaving you feeling more pain than excitement.
As usual, let’s break down the guys we think can add sustainable numbers moving forward. We’ll break down the guys who should help you win your week four matchup and hopefully more wins beyond that.
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Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets (2023 Fantasy Baseball)
Waiver Wire Priority Additions:
The talk of the town this week and likely beyond is the Athletics young flamethrower Mason Miller. A relatively unknown prospect coming into the season, Miller had dazzled at the minor league level. In 28.2 minor league innings, Miller struck out 53 batters with a 0.70 WHIP and 2.83 ERA. He also flashed excellent control walking only six batters while routinely hitting 102 mph with his fastball.
That fastball, strikeout ability, and control all flashed in his short major league debut. He struck out five and walked just one over 4.1 innings. He topped out at 102 mph in a fastball dominant start. He backed that up by showing out excellent swing-and-miss stuff with his secondaries as well. His slider (33.3%) and cutter (37.5%) both gave the Cubs lineup problems.
Mason Miller touched 100 mph 15 times in his MLB debut today.
The A's No. 3 prospect became just the 10th starting pitcher in the Statcast era to reach the mark 15 or more times in a game. pic.twitter.com/vfm5iIcGf5
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 19, 2023
Pitching for a team like Oakland caps his ability to win games which isn’t great for fantasy value. In category and roto leagues, he should routinely fill the box score with strikeouts and a low WHIP. He’s worth a roster addition should he still be available.
The power that Suwinski flashed in 2o22 is coming to fruition in 2023. He ended last season with an impressive 19 home runs in just 104 innings. His .202 average and .298 OBP left much to be desired in many leagues, but he was always showing signs that a potential breakout could happen. And boy has it this season.
Through 15 games, Suwinski has five home runs, 11 RBI, a .250 average, and has dipped his strikeout rate to 26.9%. His underlying numbers look like this could continue as well. His barrel rate (27.6%), xSLG (.739), and chase rate (13%) are all in the 100th percentile on statcast. His 95 mph average exit velocity is pretty damn impressive as well.
He’s raised his pull rate and flyball rate significantly this year which is driving the success he’s seeing. Combining that with the power he’s flashing means Suwinski should continue to see good home run numbers moving forward.
The often-overlooked catcher out in Texas is having himself one hell of a start to the season. And I’ve gotta be honest. It seems like a trend that’s going to continue for quite a while. The switch hitter seems to be one of the biggest early-season beneficiaries of the shift ban this year. After being shifted 78.9% of the time from the left side last year, his previous .263 wOBA his skyrocketed. Through the first 15 games of the year, it now sits at .395 and climbing.
Heim has deployed a new, even more pull-heavy approach at the plate. Raising his 51.7% pull rate in 2022 to 56.8% in 2023. With that, he’s also raised his line drive rate to 27.5%. Pair that with his harder contact and improved ability to hit with men on base, and Heim has become a productive member of that stacked Rangers lineup. Currently, Heim is hitting .276 with the bases empty but .368 with men on base and a cool .500 with men in scoring position. That helped him to eight RBIs in his last three games and 10 in his last five games.
Should this hitting ability continue for Heim, he will become valuable in many more league formats. He’s already reached the point of being valuable in 12-team, single-catcher leagues. Add him with confidence.
If you haven’t added him already and he’s still available, you need to before that hype train gets too full and leaves the station. A guy many expected to start the year with the big league team, Pfaadt has been dominant in the minors as he waited his turn. Through 20 innings at Triple-A so far, he has 25 strikeouts and a 3.54 ERA. Take away his first start when he gave up five earned runs in 3.2 innings, Pfaadt has given up just three earned runs in his next three starts, including a seven-inning, three-hit, eight-strikeout performance in his last outing.
In 2022 Pfaadt threw 163 innings and struck out 218. The strikeout number led the minor leagues. The overlooked part of this, though, is the fact that Pfaadt threw so many innings last year there should be no innings cap on him in 2023. Getting called up now means Pfaadt has the potential to get 150+ innings this season for that hot Diamondbacks lineup. He’s a four-pitch guy with an overpowering fastball and wipeout slider that should transition well to the major league level. That slider alone has a 52% whiff rate on the season.
Deep League Additions
Two Pittsburgh Pirates have managed to find their way onto the list this week. While I may not be nearly as high on Joe long-term as I am on Suwinski, It’s hard to overlook his recent production. With five multi-hit games in his last 10 games, Joe is putting up numbers worthy of being rostered in the fantasy baseball world. In those 10 games, Joe is hitting .351 with three doubles, two triples, two home runs, and 11 runs scored. Based on his batting average and runs scored alone, he’s enough to help win category leagues.
Connor Joe's first as a Bucco! pic.twitter.com/1X3t4WC44k
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) April 14, 2023
He’s making much more hard contact at 56.1% this season, but his 6.4-degree launch angle has limited his flyballs. If that continues, we may see the same low home run number from Joe, but the average could still stay at a decent level. By raising his line drive rate to 24%, he’s put himself in line to carry a higher BABIP. With that Pirates lineup staying hot, watch for Joe to continue his fantasy contributions with the coveted multiposition eligibility.
Trust me when I say the ship has sailed on the Trent Grisham hype. He was a post-hype sleeper of many in 2022, and it’s fairly safe to say that…didn’t work out. This season, though, he’s shown improvements in some of the areas that can keep him fantasy baseball relevant. The main improvement there is just the fact that he’s swinging at more pitches. It’s caused his whiff rate to rise and contact rate to drop a bit, but that’s expected when you’re swinging 8% more this year over last year.
It helps that Grisham has been hot as of late as well. In his last nine games, he’s hit five doubles, a home run, driven in six, and is hitting atop that Padres lineup. In a 12-team, three-outfielder lineup, I’m not sure Grisham holds much value, but in a five-outfielder or 15+ team league, there should be some good sneaky value to be had.
Right now, Candelario is the prime example of a player taking advantage of his situation. Playing for a team like the Washington Nationals is never really that fun, but Candelario is turning that fun into good vibes. And, believe it or not, good vibes do lead to more production, especially in his last eight games. In those games, he’s hit three doubles, three home runs, drove in nine, and also scored as well.
This isn’t a pretty pick, as he’s down in a lot of power metrics this year, but it’s one that can help in 15 team or deeper leagues. He’s cut his strikeout rate to 21% and is hitting mainly third in the order. Ride the hot hand, and those extra plate appearances to a few category wins in the near future.
Looks like I was destined to add another post-hype sleeper to this list. Duran and his 30 doubles, nine triples, and 25 stolen bases he put up in 2022 have always had me intrigued. Now getting his third shot at the major league level, he’s proving he can contribute. Especially given the fact he’s already driven in six in just six games this year.
Don’t let his lack of home runs fool you. Duran has started the year with a drastically different plate approach. His launch angle has jumped 9 degrees to 16.7 degrees. His 28.6% barrel rate and 64.3% hard-hit rate mean the ball has been jumping off his bat, and the home runs will come. He’s being much more patient at the plate, also. His 17.9% chase rate and 16.1% whiff rate are by far the best of his career. In deeper leagues, he’s worth an add. The signs of a breakout are there, and now it’s just a matter of whether or not he can make it happen.
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