The first few days of the season are in the books and boy oh boy has it been a doozy. Well ok maybe not a doozy, but it’s been fun as hell to say the least. Plenty of guys we hoped would be good that are showing out (Justin Steele) and plenty of guys we expected to be good who are playing out of their minds (Adley Rutschman).
This list, though, isn’t for guys like that. This list is for me to highlight those underappreciated hitters playing their way toward fantasy relevance. Whether you already need an upgrade, an injury replacement, or were just waiting to see how they’d start the season, I’ve got you. I’ll be here dropping a weekly waiver wire targets article every week moving forward and I can’t wait to help each of you lock down the moves necessary to help win your leagues.
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Week One Priority Pickups
Duvall is one of the guys who fall into the “I kinda just want to wait and see how he starts the season before I decide if I want him on my team or not” category. After signing with Boston it was very clear he was going to get extended playing time in their outfield and he’s taken advantage already.
In the first three games of the season, he’s already managed two doubles, a triple, two home runs, and eight RBI. He’s also barreled the ball up four times already and is rocking a 71.4% hard-hit rate. Probably the biggest improvement he’s made in this small sample size is his 20% strikeout rate. If he can keep the strikeouts in check, and stay healthy, Duvall isn’t that far removed from his 38-home run season in 2021. Seeing him get back to 30 wouldn’t be surprising.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but Jorge Mateo is fast. Really, really fast. Although he’s only played two games thus far, he already has a league-leading four stolen bases. If you’ve watched any Baltimore Orioles baseball this season you’d understand why he needs to be rostered. The Baltimore coaching staff seems to have given all of their players the green light to run at will. Which bodes well for someone like Mateo.
We already knew he could steal bases. He was second in 2022 with 35. The biggest hiccup when it came to Mateo was his ability to get on base. He went 0-for-4 in his second game this season but still managed two stolen bases which is intriguing. As of writing this, he is dealing with a cut on his hand but I wouldn’t worry too much about it. It’s not often you can pick a player up off of waivers with a legitimate shot at leading the league in a category, but Mateo is that guy.
Justin Steele is the pitcher I have been preaching about all offseason. I ended up taking him in all seven leagues I drafted for this year and the payoff was so sweet. In 2022, Steele put together a semi-breakout year where he went just 4-7 but ended the year with 126 strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings. This year it’s looking like he may be poised to build on that success.
In his lone start thus far he went six innings while giving up just three hits and one walk and striking out eight. He was dominant while deploying a whole new approach. In 2022 he threw his fastball 56.4% of the time and his slider 31.1% of the time. On Saturday he threw his slider 51.2% of the time and his fastball 44% of the time. Both pitches also had a whiff rate of over 30%. His fastball did get touched up a bit (.333 BAA / .254 xBA) but his slider was damn near untouchable. It gave up no hits and had an xBA of just .160. He’s worth more than just a streaming spot moving forward.
Justin Steele has a 1.30 ERA over his last 10 starts. pic.twitter.com/Rb3n3zbZRO
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 1, 2023
Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL): 39%
The bearded bandit of Colorado is back for his age-36 season and proving he’s as good as he’s ever been. Of course over the last few years, he’s been down a tick from his old self, but that’s to be expected. Don’t forget, in 2022 he still managed to hit .264 with six triples, 16 home runs, and 78 RBI. And there’s still, you know, the whole Coors Field thing.
As it currently sits, Blackmon is off to a hot start hitting .467 with a home run and three RBI. This is while playing on the road at the very pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Rockies’ next series comes against the Dodgers in Los Angeles where he’s been dominant in his career. In 80 career games at Dodger Stadium, Blackmon is hitting .275 with 20 doubles and seven home runs. Expect his hot start to continue.
Deep League Treasures <10% Rostered:
Trayce Thompson (OF – LAD): 4%
If you’ve been following my recent work, you’d recognize Thompson from my lottery tickets article. Coming into the season he was set to platoon with either David Peralta or James Outman. While Outman did hit one hell of a home run in the season opener, the performance Thompson put on in Saturday’s game was legendary. He went 3-4 with three home runs and eight RBI.
He’s never been the most attractive waiver wire option on the surface, but he’s shown in his career that the power is legitimate. His 16.4% barrel rate in 2022 can attest to that. His career walk rate of 10% gives him some appeal as well but he’ll need to work on limiting his strikeout rate. His big day Saturday should gain him some more at-bats and when it does, expect him to be an excellent source of power in deeper leagues.
Brandon Crawford (SS – SFG): 4%
Maybe one of the more overlooked players heading into the 2023 season, Crawford is playing well enough to show he shouldn’t have been. Although he’s no Carlos Correa at the plate, he showed in 2021 he’s still an offensive presence. 2022 was a wildly down year for him with his .231 average/15 double/nine home run season. At this point, it’s safe to assume he’s not his 2021 self, but he’s also not his 2022 self either.
He’s got a strikeout rate of almost 40% this season but is showing some solid pop at the plate thus far. His average exit velo and XBH numbers suggest he could be in line for a good bump in production this year. I know SS is deep, but in deeper leagues, there’s reason to want him in your lineup.
Orlando Arcia (2B/OF – ATL): 3%
One of the biggest surprises out of Spring Training was that Braves youngster Vaughn Grissom was starting the year in the minors. In turn, that meant Orlando Arcia was now the Braves’ starting shortstop. How long that lasts is yet to be seen but for now, he’s been a productive member of the Braves lineup. Honestly, that’s all we’re really asking for from him to be considered fantasy relevant.
Currently, he’s hitting .364 while only striking out 11% of the time. He doesn’t have any XBH to his name, but he’s scored three runs and hits in arguably the best offense in baseball. Is he going to put up numbers that blow you away? No. But he is going to be productive enough to be a nice lineup fill-in at the thinnest position in fantasy baseball. He’s worth the add as long as Grissom stays in the minors.
The fact that Civale is only rostered in 8% of leagues blows my mind to be honest. He is not someone I expected to be writing about, especially in the deep league section. I understand that it is not wise to chase pitcher wins in fantasy baseball. I do understand, though, that in your typical 5×5 category or roto league, wins are one of those five categories. What better than a pitcher who just went 12-5 in 2021 for an excellent Cleveland team? In 2022 his numbers overall were a bit rough, but his second half was really damn good. In 43 second-half innings, he had a 3.35 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, .186 BAA, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 23.4% K-BB%.
With that second half in mind, his first start of the season should have been no surprise. Seven innings, two hits, no runs, one walk, and three strikeouts against a good Mariners lineup. The strikeouts may not always be there, but the fact that his strikeout rate jumped to 27% in the second half is promising. Every start isn’t going to be this good, but he’s going to be good enough this season to warrant a roster spot in more than just very deep leagues.
With that, Week One is in the books! If you enjoy my work, don’t forget to come back weekly for more waiver wire gems! Also, don’t miss out on my weekly Statcast article coming out on Thursdays throughout the season. You can also catch me on the Baseball Money Is Fake fantasy baseball podcast three days a week as well and catch me on Twitter answering all of your fantasy baseball-related questions @Buhhlockaye
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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