This weekly waiver wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Players to Watch (Week 4)
Colin Holderman (RP – PIT)
Holderman has quietly emerged as one of the league’s best high-leverage bullpen options just a few weeks into the young season.
The 27-year-old owns a minuscule 1.64 ERA in 11 innings so far, also logging a 2.14 FIP and 11 strikeouts while scattering 12 hits, three walks, and a pair of runs.
Most notably, eight of his 11 appearances this season have been high-leverage scenarios. As of the start of play Monday, he was tied with Reynaldo Lopez, teammate David Bednar, and James Karinchak for the league lead in that category.
Those high-leverage spots, as well as his overall usage by Pittsburgh manager Derek Shelton, have led to eight holds so far for the 27-year-old reliever.
That number too is tied for the most in the league, this time with only the Mets’ Brooks Raley.
Armed with a sweeper that has logged a 37.9% whiff rate while holding opposing batters to a .119 xBA and a .169 xwOBA, the right-hander, at worst, looks like an impact player in leagues where holds are part of the scoring.
Though, there’s potential in the future for much more fantasy value here, especially in standard leagues as the potential next-in-line for saves in Pittsburgh.
Given the right-hander’s usage and effectiveness in high-leverage situations – he owns a 1.42 ERA in high-leverage spots this season – it’s possible that Holderman could see ninth-inning work if Bednar needs a day off, struggles, or is injured.
And while the Pirates, with a 16-7 record and a +29 run differential as of Monday, don’t look like sellers, the right-hander could also be well-positioned to take over as closer if there was a drastic drop off in wins, the team does end up becoming sellers and Bednar was traded (in that hypothetical scenario).
Either way, Holderman looks like one of the best potential closers-in-waiting options in the Majors.
Josh Naylor (1B,OF,DH – CLE)
It’s possible that Naylor, who is rostered in just 37% of Yahoo leagues as of Monday, was either dropped by someone in your league or is currently a free agent.
If that’s the case, go add him now before he inevitably becomes a popular waiver wire addition in the coming weeks. Of course, nothing about Naylor’s initial stat line would suggest that might be the case. He’s hitting .185 with a .267 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a stolen base in his first 75 plate appearances for the Cleveland Guardians this season.
However, it’s Naylor’s underlying stats that suggest he’ll be someone worth adding, not to mention a candidate for some serious positive regression.
The first baseman and outfielder’s collection of underlying metrics pretty much tick most of the boxes where in-season bounce-back candidates are concerned.
First and foremost there’s the incredibly unlucky .189 BABIP that is nearly .100 points below Naylor’s career BABIP (.275) and the league average BABIP (.295) this season.
Second, despite seeing his hard-hit rate drop a tad bit, Naylor is still logging fairly similar quality of contact metrics to what he did last season when he hit 20 home runs in 498 plate appearances for Cleveland. In fact, you could argue that as a whole his quality of contact numbers have gotten a bit better.
- Josh Naylor in 2022: 8.6% barrel rate, .327 xwOBA, .358 xwOBAcon, 42.8% hard-hit rate, .430 xSLG
- Josh Naylor in 2023: 9.1% barrel rate, .355 xwOBA, .389 xwOBAcon, 36.4% hard-hit rate, 475 xSLG
Throw in nearly identical strikeout rates from year to year, not to mention more walks more often – and you have all the makings of a bounce-back candidate.
- Josh Naylor In 2022: 16.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 498 PA
- Josh Naylor In 2023: 16.0 BB%, 10.7 BB%, 75 PA
At this point, it only seems like a matter of “when” not “if” Naylor will bounce back. If you’ve got the bench space, go add him now.
Hayden Wesneski (SP – CHC)
The former top prospect entered play Monday with a rather unideal stat line to start the season with a 6.23 ERA and a 6.15 FIP in 17.1 innings spanning four starts. He has also allowed seven walks and an uncharacteristic four home runs in those 17.1 innings while striking out just 12 batters.
Wesneski is a much better pitcher than his current numbers would indicate – more on that later – and given his struggles, now might be an ideal time to trade for him in dynasty leagues when his fantasy value might be at a low point.
Furthermore, some of his struggles aren’t tremendous causes for concern long term.
First and foremost, he’s given up four home runs in 17.1 innings this season after a rather lengthy history of not giving up home runs in the past, allowing just three in 33 innings in 2022 and 24 in 269 career minor league innings. What’s more, his run-prevention numbers so far in 2023 might be a bit misleading. In his second start of the season, the Mariners got to Wesneski for six hits, seven runs (five earned), four walks, and a home run in just 1.1 innings of work. Across his four starts, the hurler owns a 6.23 ERA, but take out the outlier of a start, where the right-hander walked nearly as many batters (four) as he did in 33 innings last season (seven), and you get a pitcher with a 3.92 ERA.
Elsewhere, the 25-year-old’s stuff doesn’t seem to have dropped off dramatically. In fact, his Stuff+ is trending more in a positive direction.
Hayden Wesneski in 2022 As a Starter In The Majors*:
- 99 Stuff+
- 105 Location+
- 104 Pitching+
Hayden Wesneski in 2023*:
- 101 Stuff+
- 106 Location+
- 107 Pitching+
*Pitching data via FanGraphs.
Diving into the starter’s pitch arsenal, Wesneski’s sweeper, which was arguably his best pitch last season with a -2 run value and a 33.3% whiff rate, has largely maintained its effectiveness in the new year. The right-hander’s sweeper is currently sporting a 31.4% whiff rate with opponents hitting just .143 with a .200 xBA, a .305 xSLG, and a .207 xwOBA against the offering.
Said sweeper was instrumental last season in the former Yankee prospect getting off to such a strong start to life in the Majors. The 25-year-old registered a 2.18 ERA and a 3.20 FIP in 33 innings for the Cubs during the 2022 campaign. He also turned in 33 strikeouts compared to allowing just seven walks and three home runs. The former Yankee draft pick’s swinging strike rate finished at 11.7%.
Following the start against the Mariners, Wesneski was much more effective, scattering five hits and an earned run in seven innings against the Oakland A’s while adding seven strikeouts and, crucially, not giving up a home run or a walk. He also registered a stellar 39% CSW rate. The A’s shouldn’t be confused with an offensive juggernaut and the right-hander won’t allow just one run in seven innings while posting a 39% CSW rate in every start. However, it was an outing that was closer to the pin in terms of what to expect from Wesneski moving forward than some of his other starts this season.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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