This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
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- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Pfaadt was mentioned in this column a few weeks ago as a rotation option to watch in the coming weeks and months. One of the league’s best pitching prospects, the 24-year-old right-hander enjoyed a quality spring for Arizona, pitching to a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings of work while registering 15 strikeouts compared to just four walks allowed.
Not much has changed with Pfaadt. He’s off to a solid start in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and while his 5.40 ERA, 7.19 FIP, and eight total earned runs allowed aren’t ideal in a 13.1-inning sample size, it’s worth noting that the right-hander has allowed just three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 9.2 innings. Or rather, said somewhat differently, five of the 13 runs that Pfaadt allowed in the minors came in his first start this season.
What has changed is the pitching situation ahead of the right-hander.
Zach Davies is currently on the injured list with Drey Jameson moving over from the bullpen to take his place in the rotation. Considering Ryne Nelson is already in the rotation alongside Jameson, Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly that would, at least speculatively speaking, position Pfaadt as the next man up should injury or ineffectiveness strike.
Furthermore, if Pfaadt is called up at any point in the next month he’ll likely be staring at a very fantasy-friendly schedule.
After their next seven games, which include three road contests against the St. Louis Cardinals and a four-game home series versus the San Diego Padres, Arizona has a fairly ideal schedule from late April through the end of May with 29 of their 34 games from April 24 through June 1 coming against the Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Colorado Rockies.
As of the time of writing on Sunday, the Giants were the highest-scoring team of that specific group. All told, 17 teams had scored more runs than the Giants as of the beginning of play on Sunday. What’s more, Miami, Kansas City, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh were six of the seven lowest-scoring teams in the sport.
In part pushed out of the Minnesota rotation picture by the acquisition of Pablo Lopez, Ober has been nothing but productive since making his Major League debut during the 2021 campaign.
The 27-year-old logged 11 starts for the Twins last season, pitching to a 3.21 ERA and a 2.92 FIP in 56 innings while adding 51 strikeouts compared to just 11 walks and four home runs allowed. If you’re counting along at home, that spits out to 8.20 strikeouts per nine innings and just 1.77 walks and 0.64 home runs allowed per nine frames.
Ober also posted a 2.70 ERA in 10 innings this spring. If anything, he looks like a ready-made rotation replacement for the American League Central club.
While it would’ve been ideal for Ober to open the year in Minnesota’s rotation, the fact that Ober was sent to Triple-A to stay working as a starter instead of pitching out of the Twins’ bullpen probably bodes well for his fantasy potential this season.
Ober will certainly be a name to watch in the coming weeks, as will fellow starter Kenta Maeda, though obviously for different reasons.
The Twins reportedly skipped Maeda’s start last week due to the right-hander “dealing with some general fatigue” per a pair of tweets from the St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Betsy Helfand on Thursday. Although Helfand also noted in her tweet that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli “said Kenta Maeda is ‘honestly doing fine.'”
Minnesota, currently leading the American League Central, went with Louie Varland to take Maeda’s skipped turn in the rotation with “Tyler Mahle pushed back a day” per a tweet from Helfand. Though Varland struck out eight batters in six innings, he also allowed three home runs in six innings in his first Major League start of the year. He was recently optioned back to Triple-A.
In the event that Maeda or another starter misses extended time, Ober could be well-positioned to step into the rotation. With his past experience and a potential role in a division-leading rotation, the 27-year-old could, at worst, be a solid streaming option, with the ceiling to contribute much more than that for fantasy managers with notable pitcher win, WHIP, and ERA upside.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
Whether or not your dynasty team has a catcher, simply put, it’s time to make an offer for MJ Melendez.
He makes for an ideal addition for fantasy managers with catcher-needy dynasty rosters, as well as teams with entrenched options at the positions like Will Smith or Adley Rutschman.
First and foremost, the 24-year-old is outfield-eligible in Yahoo after making 38 appearances in the outfield last season. With nine starts in right field and five behind the plate – as well as a start at designated hitter – Melendez looks likely to keep that eligibility at least through next season.
Second, after hitting .217 with a .313 on-base percentage, 18 home runs, and a pair of stolen bases in 2022, the 24-year-old is off to a relatively cold start at the plate, with a .180 average, a .293 on-base percentage and a home run in 58 plate appearances.
Those numbers might make it look rather unappealing to acquire the Royals starter, but they might make it relatively easier for someone else in your league to part with him in a deal. Despite those metrics, however, it’s the 24-year-old’s underlying metrics this season that make him an ideal dynasty trade target.
We’re still dealing with reasonably small sample sizes league-wide, but Melendez owns a 69% hard-hit rate, a 20.7%-barrel rate, a .394 xwOBA, and a .592 xwOBAcon. All of those metrics rank in the 82nd percentile or better, with all but the xwOBA ranking in the 90th percentile or better.
He’s also walking at a 13.8% percent rate, which sits in the 79th percentile.
And while those numbers might seem fluke-like, especially with a 36.2% strikeout rate potentially boosting some of those metrics to a degree due to a handful of fewer batted balls, it’s worth noting that Melendez made plenty of loud contact last season. In 2022, the catcher and outfielder registered a 43.5% hard-hit rate, a 10.4% barrel rate, a .332 xwOBA, and a .392 xwOBAcon. In short, this isn’t tremendously out of character for him. In fact, it stands to reason this is a bit of a step forward.
Either way, acquiring the 24-year-old now in dynasty formats could pay significant dividends down the line.
For fantasy managers with an established catcher, Melendez can contribute as an outfielder while potentially providing significant trade value down the line given the lack of fantasy-catching depth league-wide.
For fantasy managers without an established catcher, he’ll provide quality power production and a long-term fit.
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