Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on after the first few weeks of the season:
Players to Buy Low & Sell High (Week 4)
Buy Low
Ke’Bryan Hayes has struggled this season, hitting .227/.281/.375 with one home run and three stolen bases. However, if you look under the hood, you can see everything is fine and actually pretty nice. He has an elite zone contact and swinging strike rate right now, plus a .294 xBA. He is getting unlucky on balls in play and should rebound pretty quickly. If anyone is low on him right now, then I would buy.
Miguel Vargas has put up a measly .213 batting average and a disappointing .295 slugging percentage, but I am not really worried about him. He is walking at an 18% rate and striking out just 20% of the time. He needs to become a bit more aggressive in general, but his zone contact is about league average, and his xBA is .274. I think he is a nice buy low, or you may be able to scoop him off the wire in shallower formats.
Zack Wheeler’s 4.73 ERA does not indicate how he has pitched thus far. Yes, the walk rate is up, but it is not egregious. He has gotten very unlucky in the strand rate and BABIP department and is sporting a 3.20 xERA. He has the best strikeout rate of his career, which is a great sign. I am buying if anyone is selling.
Fulmer is at risk of losing his closing job because he has pitched so poorly. However, it is just a few bad outings. While the Cubs are looking like real contenders, I don’t buy that they will turn it over to anyone else unless he continues to struggle. He has yet to walk more than one in any outing this year, and he really just had two bad outings versus a really good Dodgers team. I think he will be fine.
Sell High
Patrick Wisdom (1B, 3B, OF – CHC)
Patrick Wisdom has been crushing home runs this year, but as the late great Dennis Green would say, “he is who we thought he is!” Wisdom is striking out a third of the time and making below-average zone contact. When he makes contact, it goes far, but the lack of contact will mean that prolonged cold streaks will come. Sell now!
Mauricio Dubon (2B, SS, OF – HOU)
Mauricio Dubon has been extremely hot, hitting .329/.350/.382 with a stolen base and 16 runs scored as the leadoff man in Houston. However, he is getting really lucky in the BABIP department. While he doesn’t strike out, he also doesn’t walk. One of the main issues with Dubon is the lack of power and speed, which makes him difficult to roster. Once Jose Altuve is back, he will be an afterthought.
Charlie Morton has a very good 3.22 ERA this season, but the underlying numbers are pretty scary right now. He allows a lot of contact, and the swinging strike rate has dipped. His walk rate is the highest it has been in years, and the fastball is getting hit around. I would try and sell before the results catch up with the stuff.
There is nothing wrong with Mason Miller’s performance. His debut was fantastic, pumping 100 on the fastball and with an electric slider. However, his trade value will never be better, so I think you should sell now. He has a long history of injury, and the A’s will be conservative with him after only throwing 30 innings between the Minors and Arizona Fall League last season. I would move him if you can get a good return.
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