Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, allowing astute gamers to take advantage.
When we are early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A cold or hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but it gets overblown since we have so little to work off of right now. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try to buy low and sell high on after the second week of the season.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Players to Buy Low & Sell High (Week 3)
Buy Low
Aaron Nola has struggled through his first four starts, allowing a 5.91 ERA in 21.1 innings. However, he has a 3.53 FIP and a 3.71 xERA. Nola tends to be a slow starter with a career 4.01 ERA in April, so I expect him to turn it around and be fine as the weather warms up. He is still an ace.
Jameson Taillon has a 4.50 ERA through his first three starts with two losses. However, he has gotten pretty unlucky, with a 58% strand rate and a .357 BABIP. His FIP is 1.94, and his xERA is 3.03. Even better, his strikeout rate has jumped so far with adding a new pitch. If Taillon can stay healthy, we may be in for his best season.
Christian Walker has started slow, with a .196/.230/.339 triple slash and two home runs so far this season. However, the skills are still intact. He is striking out 16% of the time and making decent contact in the zone. He should start hitting for average ad power pretty quickly.
Juan Soto has been struggling, hitting .172/.351/.379 with three home runs and a stolen base. However, he is still walking at a 21.6% rate and strikeout at the exact same rate. He is making great contact in the zone and still barrelling the ball at a 14.6% rate. Soto will be fine. If anyone is willing to sell him, I’m buying.
Sell High
Eugenio Suarez has been great this season, hitting .295/.343/.433 with two home runs so far. While the power is legit, he is still striking out at a 30% rate and has a .400 BABIP, which means the average will crash at some point. His xAVG is .237, which is much more in line with his batting average ceiling than the floor.
Bryson Stott has been fantastic this season, hitting .375/.385/.469 with three stolen bases. While he is making a ton of contact, he is getting really lucky with a .500 BABIP. I don’t think he completely falls off because he is showing a good feel for hitting. However, with his 1.5% walk rate and tendency to swing outside the zone, I think there will be some rough patches down the road.
Sonny Gray (SP – MIN)
Sonny Gray has pitched really well through his first three starts, allowing a .53 ERA in 17 innings while striking out 19. While things look good right now, he is still giving up a lot of contact in the zone and a lot of fly balls. It is a matter of time before those fly balls start flying over the fence. Considering he tends to walk too many batters, a lot of earned runs will go on his ledger.
Kyle Freeland has been great through three starts allowing a .96 ERA in 18.2 innings this year and already registering two wins. However, he has had a 100% strand rate and a .212 BABIP, which has helped aid his success. Then you add in that he plays half of his games at Coors Field, which will kill him as things warm up in Colorado, and I am moving him for anything of value in any format.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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