Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, which allows astute managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three- or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
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Players to Buy Low & Sell High
Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on after the first week of the season.
Buy Low
Hayes is struggling early on, hitting just .152/.152/.212 with no home runs or stolen bases through his first eight games of the season. While that is definitely disappointing, he is striking out at a 12.1% rate and he is making an elite level of contact in the zone. The hits will come, so if someone in your league is panicking, then take advantage.
Semien is hitting just .206/.222/.324 with a home run and a stolen base. In spite of the poor start, he has a great zone contact rate and his hard contact rate is in good shape. He struggled out of the gate last year and turned it around, so I’m not too worried that he won’t do it again this season.
Gallen has struggled in his first few starts, but the velocity is starting to rebound after being down in spring training. He only walked one in his last outing after walking three in his first. He had a tough schedule to start pitching at the Dodgers and the Padres, so things will begin to ease up.
Webb has looked good in spite of the bad results. Most importantly, he has been striking out a lot of batters, which is a good sign that he can not only repeat the results of last season, but be the frontline ace he looked like he was becoming in 2021. I would pay full market value of his draft day price right now, so any discount is an easy buy.
Sell High
Patrick Wisdom (1B,3B,RF – CHC)
Wisdom is crushing the ball to start the season, hitting .348/.400/.826 with three home runs in six games already. Wisdom has that kind of power, but the average is going to crater at some point. He is running with a .385 BABIP when his career number is under .300, and he has a 50% HR/FB rate when his career rate is half that. He will lose the playing time when he slows down, which should be any day now.
Outman was a huge target for me in deeper leagues entering the season and he hasn’t disappointed, hitting .348/.516/1.138 with three home runs and a stolen base. So why is he a sell? He is striking out at a 35.5% rate and running with a .556 BABIP, so the regression is coming. He is the talk of fantasy circles, so if I could get a top-100 player right now for him, I would.
Clevinger has pitched well to start the season, posting a 3.48 ERA and nine strikeouts in 10.1 innings. He was really impressive in his first start versus the Astros, but then struggled against the Pirates in his second start. He has a 8.31 xERA and is giving a ton of in zone contact, along with a swinging strike rate of a career low 7.5%. His two pitch repertoire makes his good days a tightrope walk that I am not willing to risk.
This one pains me, because I am pretty highly invested in Flaherty in leagues in which I can’t trade. Flaherty has 10 innings on the books with a 1.80 ERA, but that has been a lot of luck. He has walked 13 in his first two starts and is sporting a .167 BABIP. He has done a good job at letting his defense get him out of jams, but that will only take him so far if he keeps walking everyone. He is heading to Coors Field in Colorado, so the regression monster may strike very soon.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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