Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not. That allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since it is all we have to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
* You’ll notice three values for Shohei Ohtani: Hitter-Only, Pitcher-Only, Combined.
Players to Buy Low & Sell High
Here are some players that I would try to buy low or sell high right now.
Buy Low
Bregman is the classic example of why you don’t sell low on established players that start slow. He started the season going 0-for-16 in his first four games and then went 3-for-5 with two runs scored in his fifth game. While the strikeout rate is abnormally high, it is not indicative of bad skills, just a small sample. He is a pretty easy buy right now.
Abrams has started off the season very slow, not getting on base in his first seven plate appearances. This would normally be a cause for concern for a young player, but it has been a bit of bad luck thus far. He has made contact with every pitch he has swung at in the zone and only has one strikeout thus far. His only real issue is that he doesn’t have a great feel for the zone, but he has proven in the minor leagues that he has a really good hit tool and a ton of speed, so I am a believer in the overall skill set.
Sale started off the season with an absolute stinker of a debut, allowing seven earned runs on seven hits and two walks in three innings. The outing was bad, but on the plus side, he struck out six in just three innings and the velocity on all his pitches were fine. He had a fantastic 17.6% swinging strike rate and didn’t actually give up a ton of contact inside of the zone. His next start is at Detroit, so the buying window is going to be short. If someone is ready to sell Sale, I am buying.
Mikolas also had a pretty awful start, allowing five earned runs on five hits in 3.1 innings. Mikolas got pretty unlucky in this one with a .714 BABIP. His velocity was fine and didn’t issue a walk or give up a home run. He was just dinked and dunked to death. It was a tough matchup which burned him. While he is a pretty good buy low target, he has the Braves home and the Rockies in Colorado for his next two starts, so the buy low window should be open for a while.
Sell High
Cron has started on an absolute tear hitting .467/.529/.1.200 with three home runs in his first four games. Typically Cron is great at home and struggles away from Coors field, but because the Rockies have yet to play at Coors this year, he isn’t experiencing the “Coors Hangover” that hitters run into because of the ball moving differently in the thin air in Colorado versus the sea-level air in other parks. Cron will head to Coors this weekend and I would expect him to go back to being a really great player at home and bad on the road making him a really good sell high candidate after their first homestand.
Cooper has started off the year well, hitting .375/.375/.688 with a home run in his first four games. It is great to see Cooper playing great, but it is likely to be short-lived. He is swinging outside the zone a ton and striking out a lot as well. He also has competition on the roster with Yuli Gurriel being brought in late in spring training and Jorge Soler occupying the DH most nights. Once he slows down, he won’t likely be a full time player, so if you can move him now, it is for the best.
Kelly had a short first start, but it was a scoreless one. However, it was short for a reason. He allowed three hits and four walks in the outing and had an xERA of 11.57. Kelly is a guy that really relies upon being able to get out of innings quickly and his inability to find the strike zone in this one could have crushed him. He was also down a mile per hour on the fastball which is concerning. With another start at the Dodgers coming up, I would be trying to move him.
Gray had a scoreless outing as well with the same type of warts as Kelly. He allowed four walks in his five innings and got extremely lucky in the BABIP department. He struck out just one in the outing and gave up 91% contact in the zone which is extremely scary. I was afraid of Gray before the start of the season and nothing in this first start tells me I was wrong.
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