As we move into Week 3, it’s time to report on Team Offensive Rankings. As of Friday, April 13th, the five lowest-scoring ball clubs include the Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Washington National, and (drum roll, please) the New York Mets, who are tied with the Oakland Athletics. One of these teams does not belong (the Metropolitans), and we should assume they’ll improve. But the others are, sad to say, somewhat expected.
The top-scoring teams include the Rays, Dodgers, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Astros. I think two of these teams highlight an early difference in our 2023 season. The O’s and the Rangers have lineups providing plenty of offense early, and we need to consider this when we decide who to stream. That’s why you’ll see me pit some Baltimore arms against weaker teams like Detroit and Washington this week.
Just a quick reminder of my self-imposed rules (for your benefit). I aim to stream pitchers rostered in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues. Sometimes I break this rule. If it’s a weak day to stream, I will warn you. But I must provide a pitcher every single day for those managers who may need to “churn and burn” in an H2H league, or for some other reason.
Let’s get into it.
Fantasy Baseball Pitching Streamers
Monday, April 17
Alex Wood (SF) at MIA 6%
This is a tough day to stream based on our restrictions, and the two viable candidates have struggled to get through five innings, but we’ll go with the matchup here and choose Wood. In his last outing against the Dodgers, he was pulled in the 5th after a couple walks. My hope is that he can go a little longer here. He only allowed one hit and didn’t give up any runs against Los Angeles, and Miami is ranked 29th in runs scored in the first two weeks. With a 3.41 xFIP last year, Wood pitched to a 48.2% GB%, which nearly matched his GB% from 2021. He basically uses a sinker, slider, and change. Hitters have a .182 BA against that sinker, which he uses nearly half the time. As a team, the Marlins rank 4th in their ability to hit the ball on the ground. Let’s go for it.
Tuesday, April 18
Taj Bradley (TB) at CIN 26%
I think this is the obvious play for today, but that rostership number might climb quickly once Bradley is promoted to replace Springs. The top prospect in Tampa Bay’s system, and the 18th overall prospect according to MLB’s 2023 rankings, Bradley pitched well against the Red Sox in his debut despite giving up 3 ER through 5 IP. He managed a 34.6% CSW. His fastball danced a bit toward the middle of the plate in that one, which we might chalk up to jitters, but it has plus-ride, which means it has a lot of life as it approaches home plate, which is hard to see when we’re passively viewing it on television. He’s also on a very good ball club, and while I’m a little scared of pitching in Great American Ballpark, by comparison, he’s the guy for today.
Wednesday, April 19
Kyle Bradish (BAL) at WSH 7%
I think many of Bradish’s issues came at home last year, with 14.9% HR/FB and 19% HR/FB in Camden Yards. But guess what? We’ve got an away game against one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league on Wednesday. He’ll throw a smattering of five different pitches to get hitters out. Looking back to his larger workload in the minors in 2021, he had a 10.9 K/9 with a 43.3% GB%. The problem was the walks. He had a 4.05 BB/9. It was down a smidge last year to 3.52 BB/9. We’ll hope that he can come back and have a solid outing against a weaker lineup here, and even if he walks a few, it won’t hurt terribly with the limited thump in their bats.
Thursday, April 20
Matt Strahm (PHI) vs. COL 14%
It’s early, of course, but Strahm hasn’t given up a run yet in his first two outings. The 31-year-old has a 9 K/9 and a 1.80 BB/9. And, of course, his underlying stats say that his ERA should be higher than zero. Who would tell us it should be lower, I wonder? But his xBA is .179, his spin rate on his fastball is up so far, and he’s getting nearly 7% more whiffs on that offering in the early going. I’m not convinced that he’s somehow a breakout candidate, but I’ll play him here against Colorado.
Friday, April 21
Kris Bubic (KC) at LAA 24%
I would avoid streaming today, but if you want to play Russian roulette, maybe the thought of sending a southpaw like Bubic against a future HOF right-handed hitter like Mike Trout will suffice. Okay, I don’t mean to be glib, but if we must stream a guy every day, we will end up with moments where we say, “Well, the track record isn’t great for this guy, but Holy 43% CSW, Batman!” Yup, that’s what he managed against the Giants his last time out. As of publication, I haven’t watched how he handled the Braves, so you may want to use this as your final test. But this 13/1 K/BB ratio over 11 innings might be worth the gamble. There is a change here that is worth noting. He’s added a slider that received 35.3% CSW in the first couple of games, and it has led to hitters swinging at the fastball more outside of the zone and/or hitting the ball on the ground.
Saturday, April 22
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. DET 6%
As of Friday, April 14th, Baltimore has scored more than double the runs as Detroit (74 vs. 36). So this is a matchup play. Wells seems to have a newfangled cutter that has a 31.1% CSW and an xBA of .199. He’s throwing the slider less, which is good since he doesn’t seem to get the greatest results with it. The flyballs (53.1%) scare me a bit, but Detroit hits the ball in the air (so far) 35% of the time, so maybe we can sneak through them. Wells has also been able to control the free passes, with a 0.55 BB/9. His early 0.73 WHIP is a testament to limiting base runners.
Sunday, April 23
Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs. DET 31%
I’d probably stay away from today if you don’t need to stream. This is a Baltimore-heavy week, but it makes some sense. If we are struggling to find available pitchers on run-scoring teams that happen to be facing low-scoring teams, this just seems to be an Oriole phase. Gibson is not a strikeout pitcher, but he is the hot hand, managing a 3.44 ERA through 18.1 IP. He has three wins already. He’s done this by largely keeping the ball on the ground. His most recent start against Boston was his weakest; he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. Still, he got the W because of the Big Orange Machine. Know that you’re rolling the dice with Gibson any time you stream him, but you at least find him facing a weak offense here.
Other option: Tylor Megill (NYM) at SF 42%
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