Here’s my thought about the first ten days of pitching, particularly when it comes to aces: Hey, even Maverick can get shot down.
Top Gun reference aside, at the time of writing this article, here are some pitchers with ERA’s north of 7 to start the season: Chris Sale (BOS), Corbin Burnes (MIL), Lance Lynn (CHW), Zac Gallen (ARI), and Aaron Nola (PHI).
Here are pitchers with a 5.00 ERA or higher: Logan Webb (SF), Max Scherzer (NYM), Zach Wheeler (PHI), and Jacob deGrom (TEX).
Okay, this is my moment to tell you not to panic. Most of these pitchers will stabilize. The ones that we might be most worried about include Chris Sale and Lance Lynn, but otherwise, don’t start looking for the exits yet. In many ways, it was a tough first week of baseball, but if you invested a high draft pick in one or more of these arms, you’re hoping for a floor that is based on the aggregate, which means six months of baseball, not one week. Let me be your motivational speaker. Maverick will fly again.
In the meantime, if you’re looking to stream pitchers, this is the article for you. Here are the ground rules. I restrict myself to 30% rostership in Yahoo leagues, to maximize availability. However, I sometimes break this rule. I must offer an option every single day, but I will warn you if it’s a weak day to stream.
Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers
Monday, April 10
Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs. OAK 10%
Oh how the tables have turned! For years we’ve aimed to send our available waiver-wire pitchers to the mound against a weak Baltimore lineup, and now we might conceivably consider using their lineup to get wins. Through the first ten days, they reside in the top ten in runs-scored. Oakland, on the other hand, remains in its perennial place near the bottom tier. Last year, Gibson owned a 3.94 xFIP in 167.2 IP in a tough NL East Division. He threw the changeup a lot more in his first two starts of 2023, improving in his second start against Texas, where he only yielded two runs in seven innings. That changeup is a worm-killer, causing a 71.4% GB% so far.
Other option: Bryce Elder (ATL) vs. CIN 5%
Tuesday, April 11
Kyle Muller (OAK) at BAL 5%
Stay away from today if you don’t need to stream. Based on our criteria, you could start Matt Manning (DET) against Toronto (let’s not), or Chris Flexen (SEA) at Wrigley (I’ll pass). Or if you’re feeling lucky, you can ride the hot hand. I realize that Oakland is not going to provide us much in the way of offense, and that I just spoke poorly of them for the Monday streamer. Baltimore is turning into a scary good lineup, but Muller just managed solid outings against the Angels and the Guardians. In his first 10.2 IP, he has a 2.53 ERA with nearly a 60% GB% and he has yet to give up a home run. His best weapon is a fastball-slider combo, where (perhaps surprisingly) the slider gets a 30.2% CSW and the fastball gets batters to ground out. But if you’re not feeling lucky, again, stay away.
Wednesday, April 12
Zach Eflin (TB) vs. BOS 54%
I’ll break the rule a little today and highlight Eflin, who has increased his cutter usage in the first couple games (to great effect, albeit against two weak teams in Oakland and Detroit). Still, he had a 35% CSW in his last outing (Oakland is still a big league ball club people) AND he’s pitching for an undefeated team (8-0 to start the season) AND he’s throwing a pitch 16% more that’s inducing a 50% GB%. I’ll admit that Boston has been scoring to start the season, and there are signs that show Eflin was a bit lucky. But he’s the pick for today at home.
Other option: While dangerous, consider MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs. LAA 23% or at least put him on your watch list
Thursday, April 13
Jhony Brito (NYY) vs. MIN 27%
With a smaller slate, this seems the obvious choice. Everyone was looking at Clarke Schmidt to surprise in New York with his newfangled cutter, but the past week showed that he needs work. Meanwhile, Brito has risen to the occasion with a changeup that plays. It’s his primary pitch, and it seems to be a good one, with a 30.5% CSW and a 61.5% GB%. It has stymied hitters in the first two games, leading Brito to two wins in 10 innings pitched. His fastball doesn’t seem to be as good as the sinker, so as he moves forward, I’m hoping to see the sinker usage increase.
Friday, April 14
Tyler Mahle (MIN) at NYY 35%
Okay okay, not only am I breaking a rule (over 30% owned) but I’m also starting someone against the Yanks? All I can say is, if you want to go strictly by the rules (limited ownership against a weak lineup), that leaves us with someone like Zach Davies against Miami or Trevor Rogers against the D-back? I for one will be staying away from Rogers until he proves that the disastrous outings are in the rearview mirror. Mahle, on the other hand, was once on our radar in the fantasy baseball world, and could be on our radar again this year. The main difference so far isn’t difficult to identify: It’s throwing that slider in the zone for strikes. When he fails to do so, it’s easier for hitters to wait. So even if you pick him up and don’t play him today, bench and see how it goes. As of this writing, he hasn’t faced Houston on Sunday yet (April 9), so you might decide based on how that game goes.
Saturday, April 15
Anthony DeSclafani (SF) at DET 37%
I give you our old friend Tony Disco against a Detroit team that is struggling to score in the first part of the season. His rostership rate doubled from yesterday to today, so we’re obviously not the only ones excited about this matchup (so grab him early if possible). It is mainly a matchup play, but he’s also mixing up his repertoire, which seems to be a Giants-specialty (getting pitchers to change usage patterns). He’s going with the off speed stuff more: the slider and the change. The groundballs are up and it’s worth seeing if they’ll stay there against Detroit.
Other option: Seth Lugo (SD) vs. MIL 21%
Sunday, April 16
Dylan Dodd (ATL) at KC 16%
Across three minor-league levels last year, Dodd’s K/9 hovered between 9-10 with a decent walk-rate and a FIP around 3.00. Mainly a fastball-slider guy, he will show a changeup on occasion. He had a 42.4% CSW on the slider in his first outing against the Cardinals, only allowing one run on six hits in five innings. He’s got a good offense to support him and I’m hoping for a sneaky win here.
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