We have made it to the start of the MLB season, and there were some awe-inspiring performances. As usual, there were some great and rough performances to dig into. This weekly column will help highlight some hot and cold players for fantasy purposes. Some players are already rostered in many places so trades may be in order. Other players may be widely available, making a potential waiver wire claim in the cards. So this week, I will highlight some known and lesser-known players. So let’s see some of the risers and fallers for fantasy baseball Week 1 (3/30-4/2).
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Risers
Brendan Donovan (1B,2B,SS,3B,OF – STL)
In 2022, Donovan was good but was not out of this world regarding fantasy. He hit .281 with five home runs and two stolen bases. However, Donovan went to work this offseason and displayed a new approach at the plate in spring. He is elevating the ball more, pulling the ball more, and becoming a better offensive talent.
Those spring improvements carried over to the first weekend of action as Donovan hit .367 with two home runs, five runs scored, and four RBI. Donovan led off each game for the Cardinals and could become a significant fantasy factor if these improvements at the plate continue throughout the season.
Many fantasy managers were intrigued with Duvall joining the Red Sox, and after a rough Spring Training, some concerns were setting in. However, after the opening weekend of action, those concerns have been put to rest. Duvall hit safely in all three games with six extra-base hits, including two home runs and eight RBI.
It’s a tiny sample, but Duvall had a 36.4% barrel rate and a 63.6% hard-hit rate. Duvall will not stay this locked in all year, but the power will be there, and hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup will provide plenty of fantasy goodness.
Moncada was having a solid Spring Training but still felt like a forgotten man in fantasy drafts, as the last few seasons have not been good. However, Moncada carried the spring success into the opening weekend by hitting safely in all four games with three doubles and two home runs. He seems healthy for the first time in a few years and could be a late-round gold mine for those who took a chance on draft day.
Cron has showcased quality power throughout the years, but it was strictly a home/road situation last year. Cron crushed in Coors Field but was virtually nonexistent on the road. That’s why Cron’s opening weekend on the road was even more exciting. He hit safely in three of four games with two doubles and three home runs.
The power production was excellent, coinciding with an equally impressive 11.8% strikeout rate. Let’s see what Cron does in the next series on the road after the Rockies play a series in Coors.
Last year was a very disappointing season for Gorman during his MLB debut. He crushed in the Minors but never got comfortable in the Majors hitting 14 home runs with a 32.9% strikeout rate. However, he did not let that stop him and has started the season crushing for the Cardinals. Gorman hit safely in the first three games for the Cardinals with two home runs while playing DH. The Cardinals have a lot of mouths to feed, but as long as Gorman can keep hitting, he should stay in the lineup.
Fallers
There were some high expectations for Melendez entering the 2023 season. The young C/OF for the Royals led off each of the first three games but went hitless with a 25% walk rate and an atrocious 41.7% strikeout rate. In addition, he had a -10.1 LA over the weekend, showcasing subpar contact. It was only one series, and he should still be productive, but all fantasy managers would love a better start to the season.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI)
After an injury-riddled 2022 season where Gurriel only hit five home runs, he was looking to bounce back with his new team in Arizona. Unfortunately, the opening series is not what Gurriel had in mind as he hit .250 with four singles, no RBI, and just one run scored. However, he at least collected four hits with a barrel rate of over 8% and a 41% hard-hit rate. He should be ok going forward, but the power needs to show up to keep Gurriel in fantasy lineups.
Bellinger’s struggles have been well-documented in recent years, so a new start in Chicago may be best for the young lefty. Unfortunately, it was more of the same for Bellinger after the first weekend. He went hitless over three games with one RBI and a 33.3% strikeout rate. In addition, he had zero barrels and a 28.6% hard-hit rate with a 13.7% SwStr. Bellinger will run into a home run here and there, but the constant strikeouts and low batting average will be too much to overcome.
Witt is coming off of a great rookie season where he hit 20 home runs to go with 30 stolen bases, which made fantasy managers quite aggressive on draft day. Well, they’ll have to wait a little longer for Witt to break out, as he went hitless in the first three games of the season with a 25% strikeout rate. However, he did walk 16.7% of the time, with a 71.4% hard-hit rate. I am not worried about Witt, but seeing more production to start the season would have been nice.
Muncy only hit .196 in 2022, but the second half was a bit more Muncy-like, and that left fantasy managers interested on draft day. Well, the opening weekend left some slightly concerned as he collected one hit while striking out 50% of the time and no walks. The average may be a problem for Muncy going forward, but hopefully, the power should come back. Keep an eye on Muncy, as he may be one to move on from if things do not improve soon.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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