Being so early in the season, many stats are distorted. BABIPs have ballooned batting averages for hitters. Good pitchers who have thrown one bad game out of two starts have uncharacteristically high ERAs that likely will not last.

So, instead of focusing on ratios for the first By The Numbers article, I want to focus on barrels and players that are barreling the ball the best early in the season. A barrel is a hit with an exit velocity of at least 98 MPH and a launch angle between 26-30 degrees (that range widens the harder a ball is hit).

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Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Week 2

Here are some early barreled ball leaders.

Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT): 12 Barrels

Reynolds has arguably had the best start of any hitter in 2023. As of writing, he has five home runs, 10 runs, 14 RBI, two stolen bases and a .366 AVG. Of course, the AVG is likely to regress, as is the case for many hitters at this point in the season.

For Reynolds – his 11 K% rate is nearly half his career rate and, as his strikeout rate adjusts to his norm, the average will likely come down. Similarly, Reynolds’ 27.8-percent HR/FB rate is inflated because of the early homers and should regress closer to his 16.8-percent career mark as the season goes forward.

Despite that, Reynolds’ league-leading 12 barrels, a 47.4-percent FB rate and an 18-degree launch angle (which would be the highest of his career) bode well for a power boost and perhaps an increase to his home-run total this season if he can even somewhat sustain these metrics.

Those who typically hit the ball at elite levels like Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge will likely surpass Reynolds in barrels, but, for now, you have my permission to ride the Reynolds train until it comes off the tracks.

Matt Chapman (3B – TOR): 11 Barrels

In 2022, Chapman barreled 48 balls in 621 plate appearances. He already has 11 barrels in 48 PAs this season. Even still, this has resulted in just two home runs for the third baseman. That can partially be explained by lower-than-usual FB and HR/FB rates, both of which should experience some positive regression over the course of the season.

One positive of his barrels – the second most in baseball – has been an increased line-drive rate. Chapman’s 19.4-percent LD rate is a 2-point increase on his rate from last season. That can make an increased BABIP and AVG more sustainable.

Now, a .586 BABIP and .475 AVG will not stick. However, some improved contact, plate-discipline metrics, hard contact and line-drive rates could result in an AVG that is much better than his .229 AVG from 2022.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL): 8 Barrels

Acuna is one of the best players in the league, so it is no surprise to see that he is third in barrels. He has eight barrels in 53 PAs, which has resulted in two home runs. He has 10 runs, five RBI, five steals and a .340 AVG to go along with his homers.

Unlike Chapman, Acuna’s sky-high BABIP is not supported by a high LD rate. In fact, his 15.4-percent LD rate would be a career low, as would his current five-degree launch angle. If he continues driving the ball at a low rate and grounding the ball at a 51.3-percent rate, it will not matter how much he barrels the ball as ground balls usually turn into outs.

One reason Acuna has been able to sustain such a high AVG and BABIP despite the high GB rate and no discernible improvements to plate discipline is that he has an infield-hit rate of 25 percent – 15 percent higher than his career average.

Since he is so speedy, and perhaps because of bigger bases, Acuna has been able to get on base despite hitting the ball on the ground more than half the time he puts the ball in play. I do not expect that to continue and, unless he can make some improvements to his LA and GB, his AVG will plummet sooner rather than later even if he stays atop the list of most barrels in baseball.

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