“BABIP” stands for batting average on balls in play. It is also known as the “luck” statistic. Typically, for hitters, a higher BABIP means that a player is getting lucky. A lower BABIP means that they are getting unlucky in terms of their batting average. This is not always the case, though.
Things like speed (infield hits), opposing defenses and the type of hit (line drives vs. ground balls vs. fly balls) all have a hand in affecting BABIP. For example, a player who hits a ton of line drives and is quick to first base can usually sustain a higher BABIP than expected.
BABIP usually follows AVG – last year the league average BABIP was .290. But, when figuring out if a player is getting lucky or unlucky, it is better to measure their season BABIP against their career BABIP instead of against the league.
This early in the season, fantasy managers have to make tough decisions on dropping underperforming players and deciding if they want to add a player who is doing well. To help you through this, I’ve found three players to help you decide on dropping and adding.
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* You’ll notice three values for Shohei Ohtani: Hitter-Only, Pitcher-Only, Combined.
Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers
Matt Chapman (3B – TOR): .500 BABIP
Chapman is having an incredible start to his 2023 campaign. He has four homers, 12 runs, 16 RBI, one steal and, most astonishingly, a .410 AVG. A glaring sign that his average should drop is his league leading .500 BABIP. He has a career .295 BABIP, meaning it is likely that his BABIP and batting average will both drop precipitously. This makes Chapman a great sell high candidate.
One factor that could back up a higher-than-usual BABIP is if a player has a high line drive rate, since line drives fall for hits more than any other type of ball. The issue is that Chapman has a career low 15.2% LD rate, meaning a high BABIP is probably unsustainable. While his strikeout rate is 22% – 5% lower than last season – and he is making more contact, those improvements will only help his average marginally.
Ride Chapman’s hot streak while you can, but as soon as you see signs of him faltering, do not be afraid to sell.
Jose Abreu (1B – HOU): .327 BABIP
Abreu’s .327 BABIP matches his career mark, but his batting average is just .239. Many would see the batting average and assume his BABIP should be higher, but there are telltale signs that his AVG is the real deal and his BABIP could be lower.
Abreu’s K% this season is 25 percent – nine points higher than last season and six points higher than his career norm. He is also walking at a career-low rate. He has career lows in barrel rate and Hard-Hit rate as well as a career low 17.3-percent line-drive rate. These all signal that a low batting average and a low BABIP are in the realm of possibility.
Even for a player like Abreu, who went as a top-10 first baseman in most leagues, this is problematic. He is not a buy low player, and in fact, should be considered for dropping.
Christian Walker (1B – ARI): .191 BABIP
Walker is on the other end of the BABIP spectrum. His .191 BABIP is seventh lowest in baseball. This has resulted in a .186 AVG, despite striking out less than last season.
Walker is typically a hard hitter, but has career lows in barrel rate and Hard-Hit rate. Where he differs from someone like Abreu is in his line-drive rate. Even without the hard contact, Walker is driving the ball well, at 20.4 percent (more than last season). He has a 46-percent groundball rate, which is likely leading to his low BABIP and AVG.
Walker is a player with whom you should be patient. He clearly has some issues with his swing that are affecting the contact and the ball placement, but, unlike Abreu, the BABIP should start to climb as he makes improvements to his swing (as long as he maintains the high LD%).
Stash Walker on your bench and give him a few more weeks to figure it out.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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