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Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez

Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez

Strikeout minus walk rate, or K-BB%, is a measuring stick for pitchers who not only possess impeccable command and limit walks but also strike batters out at a high rate as well.

Typically, the higher the K-BB%, the more strikeouts and fewer walks a pitcher has. Many of the names atop the K-BB% leaderboard are not surprising.

The top-10 in order are Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, and Julio Urias.

Today, I will dig into three of the pitchers atop this leaderboard who deserve more attention than they get.

Logan Gilbert (SEA – SP)

As of writing, Logan Gilbert has tossed 22.2 innings in the 2023 season, racking up 28 strikeouts for an 11.1 K/9 rate (12th in baseball), compared to just four walks.

He has a 3.57 ERA against a 2.93 xFIP and SIERA, but why? Expected stats like xFIP and SIERA attempt to focus ERA on things in the pitcher’s control only. So a slightly inflated HR/FB rate at 13.6% could be the culprit causing Gilbert’s ERA to be over a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA.

Gilbert’s BB/9 rate has actually improved since last season by over half a walk per nine innings, and he has improved his groundball rate by 11% to 48.3% on the season. His BABIP this season is almost identical to his career BABIP, and his 74.5% LOB rate is a half percent higher than his career rate. This shows a pitcher who is doing things in his control to keep his ERA down, and the xStats reflect that.

Gilbert has also utilized his pitch mix well. Despite his fastball underperforming, he is inducing a ton of swing and miss and can get batters out with any of his pitches.

Pitch Type Usage% BAA xBAA Whiff Putaway
4-Seam Fastball 46.6% .324 .225 19.5% 26.7%
Slider 24% .200 .233 24.4% 19.4%
Curveball 15.6% .182 .282 34.8% 20%
Split-Finger 13.7% .059 .070 33.3% 28%

After finishing 2022 with a 3.20 ERA, it would not be surprising to see him match that performance, or even improve on it this season.

Joe Ryan (MIN – SP)

Typically, pitchers with a fastball that averages 92.7 MPH are not heralded as the best pitchers in the game, but Joe Ryan somehow makes it work.

He has a 10.4 K/9 rate in his first 25 IP of 2023, with 29 strikeouts to four walks. How has a pitcher with the 10th-slowest fastball in baseball last season managed to do so well?

Joe Ryan has incredible breaking pitches that he throws off his fastball. He actually eliminated his two worst-performing pitches from 2022 – his changeup and curveball – and has thrown his fastball, sweeper, and splitter exclusively this year. Here is his sweeper, which is nearly unhittable

None of his pitches possess a batting average against of over .200, and his fastball is so deceptive, it actually has the highest whiff rate of his three pitches at 29% and the highest putaway rate at 31.7%.

Although Ryan does not have a power fastball, he uses his pitch selection and excellent placement, as well as deception to get batters out.

Pablo Lopez (MIN – SP)

Fellow Minnesota starting pitcher Pablo Lopez has also started the season on a tear. He possesses a 3.00 ERA with 39 strikeouts and eight walks in 30 IP.

Lopez has a career-best 11.7 K/9. He has a 77.6% LOB rate and a 47.1% GB rate, both right around his career norms. Additionally, his 3.09 SIERA and 3.00 xFIP both reflect a pitcher who is doing what is in his power to be successful.

What has led to such an impressive start to his season? Lopez added a sweeper this season and has reworked his pitch mix so that he is throwing all of his other pitches much less, and has nearly eliminated his cutter usage.

The sweeper is arguably his best pitch, inducing a whopping 44.4% whiff rate and a 26.5% putaway rate. His curveball, fastball, and changeup all have whiff and putaway rates above 25%, with his sinker as the only outlier.

Lopez’s changeup has also been nearly unhittable with an incredible .080 batting average against and a .110 xBAA. He is incredibly deceptive with his pitches as seen here:

This deception, along with the change to his pitch mix, has vaulted Lopez into elite status as a pitcher who can not only strike batters out, but limit walks as well.

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