And just like that, the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. Per usual, it was a wild and unexpected ride, starting with all the Round 1 action. Day 2 and Day 3 delivered surprises of their own. Some teams capitalized on the opportunity, while others came up short. Let’s take a look at the 2023 NFL Draft recap, analysis, and grades for the Atlanta Falcons. NFL Draft analysts Andrew Erickson and Thor Nystrom combine to provide their thoughts below.
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- Fitz’s Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (Day 2 | Day 3)
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2023 NFL Draft Recap, Analysis & Grades: Atlanta Falcons
NFL Draft analysts Andrew Erickson and Thor Nystrom combine to provide their thoughts below.
Thor Nystrom’s Overview & Grades
Atlanta Falcons | Draft Grade: C+
Pick | Team | Position | Rank | Name | School | Comp |
8 | Falcons | RB1 | 17 | Bijan Robinson | Texas | Edgerrin James |
38 | Falcons | OT6 | 53 | Matthew Bergeron | Syracuse | Jermon Bushrod |
75 | Falcons | ED13 | 72 | Zach Harrison | Ohio State | Clelin Ferrell |
113 | Falcons | CB8 | 51 | Clark Phillips III | Utah | Mike Hilton |
224 | Falcons | S26 | 335 | DeMarcco Hellams | Alabama | Marcus Demps |
225 | Falcons | OL38 | 415 | Jovaughn Gwyn | South Carolina | Kasey Studdard |
I wouldn’t use a top-10 pick on a running back – your path to recouping the value is precarious. That said, and to state the obvious, RB Bijan Robinson is a special prospect.
Per PFF charting dating back to 2014, Robinson is tied with Javonte Williams for the highest missed tackle rate (39%). In 2022, Robinson broke PFF’s single-season record with 104 missed tackles forced. He’s a slalom runner with creativity who puts the entire defense on a balancing platform by altering all 11 pursuit angles with death-defying change-of-path machinations in the open field. Robinson will also greatly aid QB Desmond Ridder in the passing game.
OT Matthew Bergeron was a slight reach at No. 38, but I’m not going to quibble too much about that one – the tackle class dropped off significantly shortly after that.
The pick I loved of Atlanta’s class was CB Clark Phillips in Round 4. Phillips is relegated to the slot in the NFL, but he’s gonna be a good one. A unanimous All-American in 2022 and the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Phillips will take care of any matchup in which he can’t be physically trump-carded.
Just ask Vikings R1 WR Jordan Addison. Addison needed the cast of Stranger Things to retrieve him from the Upside-Down after Phillips erased him from the face of the earth in the Pac-12 title game.
Andrew Erickson’s Overview & Grades
Wheels up. If any team can somewhat justify drafting a running back 8th overall, it’s the Atlanta Falcons. At least we can be confident Arthur Smith and Co. will utilize Bijan Robinson to the full extent throughout his rookie deal. The Texas running back is listed at +350 odds to win offensive rookie of the year. Unless a first-year quarterback really shows out in Year 1, B-Rob will be tough to beat for that spot if he stays healthy.
Atlanta went with a tackle in Round 2, which I do think was a wise move. If you are going to be a run-heavy team, invest assets into the OL. Matthew Bergeron enters the NFL with a ton of experience, starting 39 games at Syracuse. He thrived as both a pass and run blocker while playing on both sides of the offensive formation. He can step in immediately at the next level as a swing tackle.
Zach Harrison has 98th percentile arm length and 97th percentile wingspan which makes him closely comparable to Chandler Jones. The Ohio State pass rusher was extremely productive in 2022 finishing with the 11th-highest pressure rate over expectation in his class. And over the past three years as a Buckeye, he has been a top-35 PFF-graded pass rusher each season.
Only Devon Witherspoon posted a lower EPA per target than Clark Phillips III in the 2023 CB draft class. Utah’s primary slot CB couldn’t be touched inside generating the lowest coverage snaps per target/reception. Great value for the Falcons in Round 4 to fortify their secondary inside.
FINAL DRAFT GRADE: A-
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