We have reached a critical point in the NFL offseason: the gap between the end of the free-agent frenzy and the NFL Draft. This window is one of the best times to make trades in your dynasty leagues, as everyone is focused on the players who changed teams in free agency. Furthermore, fantasy players are drooling over the upcoming NFL Draft class.
Below are six wide receivers I am trying to acquire in my dynasty leagues. They are divided into three categories: stars worth the cost, undervalued players and bargain-bin buys.
Stars worth the cost are big-name players I want to acquire before they become untouchable. Undervalued players are wide receivers who I believe can become stars next season. Bargain-bin buys are players that I think could see a massive bump in their trade value over the next eight months.
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Stars Worth the Cost
While everyone wants to add Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave this offseason, I will be buying shares of Kupp. Last year was a disaster for the Rams. Yet, Kupp remained a fantasy superstar. He was the WR24 last year despite missing the final eight games. More importantly, Kupp averaged 18.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year. The superstar would have been the WR1 if not for the ankle injury. He was the WR1 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 0.3 more per game than Justin Jefferson. Furthermore, Kupp would have been the only wide receiver to average over 20 fantasy points per game last year if you remove the Week 10 matchup where he suffered the season-ending injury.
Some say the wide receiver is too old to remain a fantasy superstar. That’s nonsense. Kupp is younger than Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, yet no one is calling for them to have massive regression in 2023. Meanwhile, others will say his 2021 season was an outlier. That is also not true. Before the injury, Kupp was on pace to have similar numbers in 2022. He would have scored 345.1 fantasy points over a 17-game pace last year using his first eight-game averages. In 2021, Kupp had 367 fantasy points, only 1.3 more fantasy points per game than his 17-game pace in 2022. Let everyone else buy the shiny new toy while you land the most dominant wide receiver over the past two years.
The addition of A.J. Brown was massive for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last year. However, Smith had a significant second-year jump too. While Brown ended the year as the WR5, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, Smith was right behind him. The second-year receiver was WR9 in 2022, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Smith averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game last year if you remove the zero catch Week 1 performance. More importantly, the former Heisman Trophy winner had a 23.5% increase in targets from his rookie year despite the addition of Brown.
Most will argue that Brown is the team’s clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. However, it’s closer to a co-WR1 situation. Brown led the team in targets (145), receiving yards (1,496), and receiving touchdowns (11). However, Smith led the team in receptions (95). Furthermore, the former Alabama star outperformed the veteran wide receiver in several areas. Smith had a higher snap share (91.5% to 86%) and route participation rate (97% to 92.7%) than Brown. Meanwhile, Brown has missed six games in his career because of injury, while Smith hasn’t missed a single contest despite his lighter frame. I would rather have Brown on my team than Smith next season. Yet, that opinion will likely change starting in 2024.
Undervalued Players
I have never been a fan of Deebo Samuel. His 2021 season was outstanding, but the veteran wide receiver significantly regressed last year. Meanwhile, Aiyuk has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver in San Francisco. The former first-round pick averaged more half-point PPR fantasy points per game than Samuel in 2022. More importantly, Aiyuk was the WR15 last season, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. He had a higher fantasy points per game average than DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and several other big-name players. Yet, Aiyuk is only starting to scratch the surface of his potential.
The 49ers picked up the receiver’s fifth-year option, locking him up through the 2024 season. Meanwhile, Aiyuk played well last year regardless of who was at quarterback for the 49ers. He had 78 receptions on 114 targets for 1,015 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs. Furthermore, Aiyuk was 11th in the NFL with eight receiving touchdowns despite George Kittle finishing third with 11. More importantly, the former Arizona State star was 14th in route participation and third in target separation last year. If San Francisco trades away Samuel at some point over the next 12 months for salary cap reasons, Aiyuk could become a top-10 dynasty wide receiver.
Last year wasn’t ideal for Williams, as he was the WR30, averaging 11.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the former Clemson star missed four games with injuries and left a few others early too. Williams averaged 7.9 targets and 12.5 fantasy points per contest in the 11 games last year that he played at least 38% of the snaps. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR9. Meanwhile, the star wide receiver wasn’t the only one who struggled in Los Angeles. Justin Herbert averaged 278.8 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 16.4 fantasy points per game in 2022, all career lows. However, fantasy players should expect a rebound season from the Chargers this coming season.
They hired Kellen Moore as their new offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott averaged 4.5 deep ball attempts per game in the three years Moore was the offensive coordinator in Dallas. More importantly, fantasy players have seen Williams play at an elite level. In 2021, the former Clemson star was the WR10, averaging 8.1 targets and 13 fantasy points per game. Williams had nine receiving touchdowns that year, the ninth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, he was top-12 in routes run (10th), deep targets (12th), red zone targets (eighth), and total route wins (fifth) that year. There is endless upside with Williams if the star receiver can stay healthy.
Bargain Bin Buys
The Vikings released Adam Thielen this offseason for salary cap reasons. Yet, the loss of Thielen is good news for Osborn’s fantasy value. He was the WR45 last year, averaging 7.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Osborn was the WR38 in 2021, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per contest. However, the young receiver saw his production improve when Thielen missed time with injuries. In the six games Thielen missed or played under 38% of the snaps in 2021, Osborn averaged 5.8 targets and 11.4 fantasy points per game. He would have been the WR16 that season with that fantasy points per game average.
More importantly, T.J. Hockenson‘s arrival didn’t hurt Osborn’s production. Osborn averaged 4.4 targets and 5.8 fantasy points per contest in the seven games without the star tight end. However, the third-year wide receiver averaged 5.9 targets and 8.5 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests with Hockenson. Furthermore, Osborn finished top-15 in routes run (13th) and total route wins (eighth) last year. Unless the Vikings use their first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a wide receiver, Osborn will be the No. 2 guy on the depth chart. Meanwhile, the young receiver is heading into a contract year. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Osborn has a career year in 2023.
Many fantasy players had no idea who Shaheed was a year ago. The former Weber State wide receiver was an undrafted free agent and signed with the Saints. Unfortunately, he got no attention from the dynasty community. However, Shaheed had a solid rookie year. He was the WR67, averaging 7.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, he scored more total fantasy points than Michael Gallup, Chase Claypool, and Elijah Moore despite playing fewer games. Furthermore, Shaheed had a higher fantasy points per game average than Treylon Burks, Darnell Mooney, and Kadarius Toney. More importantly, the undrafted free agent rookie displayed big-play ability early in his career.
Shaheed’s first career touch was a 44-yard rushing touchdown. Then, his first career reception was a 53-yard score. More importantly, he was the WR24 over the final four weeks last season, averaging 2.1 fantasy points per target and 9.9 fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. While the Saints kept Michael Thomas, the veteran receiver has missed 80% of the games over the past three years. Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harty won’t return in 2023 after combing for 25.7% of the team’s wide receiver targets last season. Shaheed won’t become a fantasy superstar, but he’s one injury to Thomas away from a critical starting role.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
