We have reached a critical point in the NFL offseason, the gap between the end of the free agency frenzy and the NFL Draft. This window is one of the best times to make trades in your dynasty leagues, as everyone is focused on the players who changed teams in free agency. Furthermore, fantasy players are drooling over the upcoming NFL Draft class.
Below are six running backs I am trying to acquire in my dynasty leagues. They are divided into three categories: stars worth the cost, undervalued players, and bargain bin buys.
Stars worth the cost are big-name players I want to acquire before they become untouchable. Undervalued players are running backs who I believe can become stars next season. Bargain bin buys are players that I think could see a massive bump in their trade value over the next eight months.
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Derek Brown’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Trade Strategy & Advice
Stars Worth the Cost
The 2022 season was an unfortunate fluke for Taylor. The superstar was the RB6 as a rookie, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Then, he was the RB1 in 2021, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game, a career-high. Unfortunately, injuries and poor circumstances made Taylor a fantasy bust in 2022. The former Wisconsin star was the RB34 last season, averaging 12 fantasy points per game. However, he missed six games because of injuries. Furthermore, Taylor was only the RB18 on a points-per-game basis in 2022. While his struggles last year weren’t ideal, fantasy players should feel confident Taylor will rebound next season.
Hopefully, he won’t have reoccurring ankle injuries. Meanwhile, new head coach Shane Steichen comes from the Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC Champions were one the top running teams in the NFL last season, a philosophy Steichen will bring to the Colts. More importantly, Taylor is an underrated receiver. Last year, he managed to finish seventh in route participation and 17th in target share among running backs. Furthermore, Taylor averaged only 0.3 fewer rushing attempts per game last year than in 2021 if you remove the Week 15 matchup when the running back left after two snaps.
Last year the fantasy football world spent the offseason debating Walker and Rashaad Penny. While it’s unfortunate, Penny once again couldn’t stay healthy, his injury opened the door for Walker to become a star. The former Michigan State running back was the RB16 last year, averaging 12.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, he was the RB6 for the year once Penny suffered a season-ending injury. Walker averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game from Week 6 through the end of the season, a higher average than Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, or Najee Harris.
Fantasy players should expect a second-year jump from the star running back. Seattle lost Penny and Travis Homer in free agency. While the team could add someone during the NFL Draft, it will be a Day 3 selection meant to back up Walker and not challenge his lead role. Meanwhile, the star running back was productive for fantasy players despite playing more than 77% of the snaps in a game only twice. Furthermore, Walker averaged only 11.6 fantasy points in those two contests. More importantly, he was 11th in rushing attempts and third in breakaway runs last season. Unless Seattle surprises everyone and drafts Bijan Robinson, Walker will have top-five upside next year.
Undervalued Players
It’s too bad we can’t turn injuries off in real life, like we can in Madden. Dobbins had an impressive rookie year where. despite playing under 47% of the snaps, Dobbins was the RB21, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, a severe knee injury during the 2021 preseason cost the young running back the entire season. Furthermore, the injury impacted Dobbins’ 2022 season, as he missed nine games. The former Buckeye started the year slow, averaging only 7.8 fantasy points per game over his first four contests. However, he played much better after having a clean-up procedure on his knee.
The clean-up procedure helped Dobbins. In the four regular-season games he played after the procedure, the third-year running back averaged seven yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, Dobbins averaged 99.3 rushing yards and 11.6 fantasy points per game during that span. The young star would have been the RB15 for the year over a 17-game pace with that fantasy points per game average. More importantly, Dobbins had the second-highest juke rate (43.4%) and the third-highest breakaway run rate (10.9%) last season. Even if he only plays under 50% of the snaps again in 2023, Dobbins has the big-play ability to become a fantasy star.
Some fantasy players hate Akers, while others think he’s a star in the making. I’m in the latter category. Despite heading into his fourth year in the NFL, fantasy players haven’t gotten a complete look at the young running back. The former Florida State star had a somewhat disappointing rookie season. He was the RB43 that year, averaging 7.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, Akers gave fantasy players hope, averaging 97.5 rushing yards and 14.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through Week 15. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury and missed the Week 16 matchup before trying to play through it in Week 17.
However, Akers had an impressive playoff run. He averaged 110.5 rushing yards and 21.4 fantasy points per game during the playoffs. Unfortunately, the young running back tore his Achilles and had his 2021 season flushed down the toilet. Then, Akers struggled to begin the 2022 season before ending the year strong. Over the final four contests, the former Seminole star averaged 102.5 rushing yards and 18.3 fantasy points per game. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the RB3 with that fantasy points per game average. Akers will be more than two years removed from the torn Achilles when the 2023 season begins. I bet he has a career year next season.
Bargain Bin Buys
Despite it being his sixth year in the NFL, Perine had a career season in 2022. The veteran running back averaged 7.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Perine averaged more than 4.5 fantasy points per game in only one other season in his career, his rookie year. More importantly, the former Oklahoma Sooner had 38 receptions on 51 targets for 287 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season, all career-highs. Meanwhile, Perine became one of the top handcuffs in fantasy football last year. He averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game in the 2.5 games Mixon missed with an injury.
After spending the past three years with the Cincinnati Bengals, Perine signed a two-year deal with the Broncos this offseason. He will replace the combination of Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray, and others in the Denver backfield behind Javonte Williams. However, Perine might have more value than just as a high-end handcuff. Williams suffered a severe knee injury last year. While the team is optimistic he will be ready for Week 1, the Ravens felt the same way about Dobbins last season, but it didn’t go according to plan. Perine could have top-20 upside next year if Williams misses significant time. Furthermore, the veteran will have meaningful fantasy value regardless, as Sean Payton likes using multiple running backs.
Unfortunately, Harris struggled with injuries last season. He played only 11 games and left a few others early. More importantly, Harris lost the starting job to Rhamondre Stevenson as the New England Patriots went away from their traditional running back by committee approach. However, the veteran running back was a fantasy star in 2021. That year he was the RB13, averaging 13.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Harris was second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns, a career-high. After four years with the Patriots, the former Alabama star signed a one-year deal with the Bills in free agency.
Buffalo lost Devin Singletary this offseason, as he signed with the Houston Texans. Yet, James Cook remains with the team. However, that isn’t a problem for Harris. Cook specializes in the passing game, which is Harris’ biggest weakness. Meanwhile, Buffalo reportedly wanted to add a “bigger running back” this offseason, and the former Patriot fits the bill. More importantly, Harris was more than just a touchdown machine in 2021. The veteran running back was eighth in breakaway run rate (6.9%) and 16th in evaded tackles (61). Unless the Bills use an early draft pick on a running back, Harris could have a career year in 2023.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
