Dynasty Rookie Outlook: Day 3 NFL Draft Picks (2023 Fantasy Football)

Pat Fitzmaurice is back to provide his dynasty rookie draft outlook. After recapping Round 1, and Round 2, he’s here to provide you with his outlook for 2023 NFL Draft prospects that were selected on Day 3. There are still players selected Day 3 that will have dynasty rookie draft impact. Here’s how Fitz saw it go down and what he’s expecting from the 2023 class of NFL rookies to help you prepare for your dynasty drafts.

NFL Draft Grades for Every Team
Thor’s Draft Grades (AFC | NFC)
NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers (Day 2)
Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here are Fitz’s takes from Day 3.

Bears Draft Roschon Johnson

Bijan Robinson wasn’t the only good running back toiling for the University of Texas for the last few years. Johnson, Bijan’s backup in Austin, is a powerful runner with a surprisingly diverse skill set.

The 6-0, 219 Johnson is a powerful downhill runner with quick feet and admirable patience. His physical style makes him a good candidate for early-down duty, but Johnson is a capable pass catcher as well. With 4.58 speed, Johnson isn’t particularly explosive. He didn’t get a lot of touches at Texas, topping out at 123 carries as a freshman, so it’s not clear how Johnson would fare in a larger role.

It’s slightly discouraging that Johnson fell into the fourth round of the NFL Draft when a lot of fantasy analysts expected him to be a Day 2 pick, but Johnson landed in a pretty good spot with the Chicago Bears, who have Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman at the top of their RB depth chart. Johnson might not be able to shove those guys aside, but with his NFL-ready game, he should be able to work his way into the Bears’ RB rotation as a rookie.

Johnson is worth consideration in the late second round of 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and in the third round of superflex drafts.

Bears Draft Tyler Scott

Tyler Scott enthusiasts have to be disappointed with the way the NFL Draft turned out for the Cincinnati receiver. He wound up going on Day 3 rather than Day 2 and wasn’t even the first Cincinnati receiver taken. (That honor went to went to Tre Tucker.) Scott’s landing spot isn’t ideal either. He was chosen by the Bears, a run-heavy team that will have D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool ahead of Scott on the depth chart.

A dangerous vertical receiver with 4.44 speed, Scott averaged 16.9 yards per catch over the last two years and scored touchdowns on 16.7% of his receptions. As noted by Dane Brugler of The Athletic, Scott averaged 44.6 yards on his 14 TD receptions over the last two years. But at 5-10 and 1777 pounds, Scott could struggle against the more physical coverage that he’s going to get from NFL cornerbacks.

With fourth-round draft capital spent on him, and with a disappointing landing spot, Scott figures to be an afterthought in most dynasty rookie drafts. Scott truthers can probably get him in the fourth round if their enthusiasm is still intact.

Jets Draft Israel Abanikanda

Abanikanda is an exciting talent, but it’s hard to be excited about his draft capital or his landing spot. Abanikanda fell into the fifth round, where he was selected by the Jets. Abanikanda is destined to serve as Breece Hall’s backup. There’s no way Abanikanda is going to pass Hall on the depth chart on the merits, but the rookie from Pittsburgh could become immensely valuable if Hall were to go down again. (A torn ACL prematurely ended Hall’s rookie season in 2022.)

A breakout star last season for the University of Pittsburgh, Abanikanda erupted for 1,431 rushing yards and 20 TD runs, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The 5-10, 216-pound Abanikanda combines good size with 4.5 speed. He also has exceptional burst, good vision and quick feet. Abanikanda doesn’t run with a lot of power, so he might not be cut out for goal-line work or heavy-duty usage, and he doesn’t have much experience as a pass catcher.

Abanikanda is worth a flyer in the third round of a 1QB dynasty rookie draft, and maybe in the late third round or early fourth round in a superflex draft. His situation is far from ideal, but his talent is intriguing.

Bengals Draft Chase Brown

Cincinnati was on the shortlist of the best possible landing spots for a rookie running back, so the Bengals’ selection of Chase Brown in the fifth round makes Brown an intriguing investment in dynasty rookie drafts, even though Brown was a Day 3 pick. Joe Mixon is the incumbent lead running back in Cincinnati at the moment, but there have been rumors that the Bengals could release him for salary-cap purposes. If that were to happen, Brown would have a chance to earn a significant role in one of the more prolific offenses in the league.

Brown had a big senior season for Illinois, rushing for 1,643 yards and 10 touchdowns, and adding 27-240-3 as a receiver. He handled a mammoth workload for the Fighting Illini, averaging 27.3 carries a game as a senior. Brown is a smart, patient runner who has good visions and usually makes smart decisions when he has the ball in his hands. His 4.43 speed allows him to explode through holes. Brown is an exceptional all-around athlete who had the top vertical and broad jumps among all the running backs at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a relative athletic score of 9.81.

The 5-10, 209-pound Brown isn’t a very powerful runner, and he’s not an exceptionally gifted pass catcher. He had a poor week at the Senior Bowl, struggling with drops and getting blown up in his attempts at pass blocking.

With his appealing landing spot, Brown should be a consieration in the back half of the second round in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, and in the early third round in superflex drafts.

Giants Draft Eric Gray

With late-fifth-round draft capital and a landing spot that puts him behind one of the NFL’s most prolific workhorses, Gray will not be a coveted commodity in dynasty rookie drafts, but his talents make him worth a final-round flyer. Gray landed with the Giants and will serve as a depth piece behind star RB Saquon Barkley.

Gray had 99 receptions for 827 yards and 5 touchdowns during a four-year college career that began at Tennessee and ended at Oklahoma. With his reliable hands and crisp route running, Gray seems cut out for passing-down work at the NFL level. But Gray was no slouch as a runner at Oklahoma, racking up 1,366 rushing yards and 11 TD runs for the Sooners last season. He’s a shifty runner with an impressive array of moves.

The 5-10, 207-pound Gray isn’t a very powerful runner, however, and he doesn’t impress with his straight-line speed. Gray clocked a 4.67 at the NFL Scouting Combine, giving him a 20th percentile speed score, per PlayerProfiler.com.

Colts Draft Evan Hull

Indianapolis wouldn’t seem to be an optimal landing spot for Hull, since the Colts already have a workhorse in Jonathan Taylor. But Taylor could use a complementary back to give him an occasional breather and step in on obvious passing downs, and Hull seems well-suited for that sort of role.

Ready-made for passing-down duty, Hull’s skill set should play well in the NFL. His 54 receptions last season led all FBS running backs, and he led Northwestern in rushing in each of the last two seasons. In fact, Hull was really the only the only playmaker for the lowly Wildcats, who went 4-20 over the last two years. The 5-10, 209-pound Hull is a smooth, detail-oriented route runner with a knack for picking up yardage after the catch. A good all-around athlete, Hull ran a 4.47 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a relative athletic score of 9.22.

Hull isn’t a very physical runner, so he might be primarily a passing-down back for most of his career. Don’t expect to see him used as a goal-line back anytime soon. Hull averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in his final season at Northwestern, though he was working with a dismal supporting cast (save for offensive lineman Peter Skoronski, a first-round draft pick).

In 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, Hull is worth a mid-to-late third-round pick. In superflex formats, he’s likely to go late in the third round or early in the fourth.

Rams Draft Puka Nacua

Selected with the final pick of the fifth round in the NFL Draft, Puka Nacua is a long shot to provide meaningful dynasty value, but he landed in an intriguing spot with the Rams, who don’t have a lot of proven WR talent on their depth chart behind superstar Cooper Kupp.

Nacua is a max-effort player capable of lining up inside or outside. The 6-2, 210-pound Nakua has 4.62 speed and ordinary athleticism, with a Relative Athletic Scote of 5.18, but he has impressive body control and toughness that allows him to make some high-degree-of-difficulty catches. Nakua averaged 16.3 yards per catch during his four years at BYU. The big question is whether Nacua can stay healthy. He played fewer than 10 games in three of his four college seasons, missing time with foot, ankle and hamstring injuries.

Nacua’s injury history and his modest overall numbers at BYU will probably make him available at the end of your dynasty rookie draft. He’s not a bad flyer to take in the last round. Nacua might benefit from the presence of Kupp, an all-time overachiever who, like Nacua, succeeds more on toughness and guile than on pure athleticism.

Jaguars Draft Parker Washington

Washington probably wasn’t going to be a coveted asset in dynasty rookie drafts no matter where he landed, but his landing spot seems especially unfortunate. He was a sixth-round selection of the Jaguars, who already have Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones at wide receiver. Washington might make the roster, but he’s unlikely to make any sort of meaningful contribution as a rookie.

Parker is a solid possession receiver who does his best work against zone coverage and is strong after the catch. The 5-10, 204-pound Washington has a physical style and isn’t afraid to make tough catches in traffic. There aren’t a lot of big plays on Parker’s resume. He averaged 13.2 yards per catch at Penn State and had 12 TD catches in his 32 games with the Nittany Lions. Although Washington ran a 4.49 at the NFL Scouting Combine, his acceleration and athleticism are ordinary.

Washington is a final-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts at best.

Patriots Draft Kayshon Boutte

The Patriots haven’t had much luck drafting wide receivers during the Bill Belichick era, but perhaps they unearthed a late-round gem when they selected Boutte in the sixth round.

The enigmatic Boutte looked like a superstar at the end of his freshman season at LSU in 2020, finishing with three consecutive games of 100+ yards, including a 14-catch, 308-yard, three-TD outburst against Ole Miss in the season finale. Boutte then had 38-509-9 in the first six games of his sophomore season before breaking his ankle. He never got it going in his third and final year in Baton Rouge, with 48-538-2 in 11 games.

Boutte is at his best after the catches. He doesn’t have blazing speed (4.50), but he’s good at breaking tackles and knowing exactly when to stomp on the gas pedal or hit the brakes. Boutte also has good ball skills. But there are character concerns with Boutte, whose effort was inconsistent during his up-and-down three-year stay at LSU.

Boutte does his best work out of the slot, and the Patriots are presumably planning to make offseason addition Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster their starting slot receiver. But it’s not as if the Patriots have an abundance of firepower at wide receiver. Smith-Schuster hasn’t been able to recapture the magic of his first two seasons in Pittsburgh. DeVante Parker is injury-prone and inconsistent. Second-year man Tyquan Thornton is promising but unproven. Kendrick Bourne is a role player with modest talents. If Boutte applies himself, he has a chance to earn significant playing time. Boutte is worth an early-third-round pick in 1QB synasty rookie drafts and a late-third-round pick in superflex drafts.

Buccaneers Draft Trey Palmer

A rare WR prospect with decent size (6-0, 192) and game-breaking speed (4.33), Palmer could eventually develop into a dangerous vertical threat. He had an impressive final college season at Nebraska, with 71 catches for 1,043 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Palmer is an unpolished receiver whose route-running and catching technique need work. He had trouble earning playing time during his three years at LSU before transferring to Nebraska. It’s possible Palmer never becomes anything more than a kick returner in the NFL.

The Buccaneers spent a sixth-round draft pick on Palmer and will probably use him primarily as a kick returner early on, assuming he makes the roster. Obviously, playing behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will make it difficult for Palmer to become a meaningful contributor to the Tampa Bay passing game, but Palmer is going to need some seasoning anyway, so it seems pointless to worry about who’s blocking him in his rookie year.

Palmer is worth considering in the final round of your rookie draft, but realize that he is a developmental prospect unlikely to contribute anything as a rookie.

Saints Draft A.T. Perry

New Orleans isn’t a bad landing spot for Perry. Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rasheed Shahid will be ahead of him on the depth chart, but Perry is talented enough to displace Tre’Quan Smith and the other receivers on the Saints’ roster. Thomas has been unable to stay healthy in recent years, so it’s not out of the question that Perry could end up seeing significant playing time as a rookie, even though he was only a sixth-round draft pick.

A big, rangy receiver with one of the biggest wingspans in this WR class, the 6-3, 195-pound Perry has the sort of length that NFL teams covet in an outside receiver. He was highly productive in Wake Forest’s wonky offense, topping the 1,000-yard mark and scoring double-digit touchdowns in each of his final two seasons. Perry has the potential to be a good route runner, although FantasyPros college football and NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom notes that he sometimes labors to quickly change direction.

With sixth-round NFL Draft capital, Perry is merely a late-round flyer in dynasty rookie drafts, but he’s a worthwhile flyer to take with your final pick.

Texans Draft Xavier Hutchinson

Hutchinson fell into the sixth round of the NFL Draft, which would seem to bode ill for his dynasty outlook. He landed in a pretty good spot, however, going to the Texans, who aren’t exactly flush with WR talent. The Texans’ depth chart at wide receiver includes Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Noah Brown and rookie Nathaniel “Tank” Dell.

Hutchinson was a productive three-year starter at Iowa State, wrapping up his college career with a 107-catch, 1,171-yard, 6-TD season in 2022. Hutchinson’s strengths are body control and ball-tracking. At 6-2 and 203 pounds, his size is a plus, and he has respectable speed for a bigger receiver, clocking a 4.53 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Hutchinson offers schematic flexibility: He mostly lined up as an X-receiver at Iowa State but could be used as a Z or as a big slot receiver. Perhaps the biggest knock on Hutchinson is that he didn’t have a lot of big plays at Iowa State. He averaged only 11.5 yards per catch during his three years with the Cyclones and scored only 15 touchdowns in 37 games.

There are worse final-round dart throws in your dynasty rookie draft than Hutchinson, who has a chance to work his way up the Texans’ flimsy WR depth chart.

Cowboys Draft Deuce Vaughn

As Lloyd Christmas once said, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” Could Vaughn bypass Ronald Jones, Malike Davis and Rico Dowdle on the Dallas depth chart to become the primary complement to starting RB Tony Pollard now that Ezekiel Elliott is no longer in the picture? It’s ambitious to think that an undersized sixth-round draft pick could fill that role, but Vaughn is a unique talent.

It will be interesting to see what sort of role the Cowboys have planned for the 5-5, 179-pound Vaughn. The obvious NFL comparison is fellow Kansas State product Darren Sproles, a 5-6 scatback who had a 15-year NFL career, racking up 553 career receptions and 8,392 yards from scrimmage while also making his mark as a kick returner. Vaughn’s ultra-productive college career suggests he’s capable of carving out a Sproles-type NFL career. In his final two college seasons at K-State, Vaughn had 2,962 rushing yards, 27 TD runs and 91-846-7 receiving. He’s a patient, shifty runner and an accomplished pass catcher. The obvious question is whether the diminutive Vaughn can be a fantasy-viable NFL running back. If so, he’ll probably have to do it the same way Sproles did — primarily as a pass-catching specialist. And since Pollard is a good pass catcher, Vaughn might not see much third-down work.

In dynasty rookie drafts, Vaughn is worth considering as a calculated final-round gamble.

Rams Draft Zach Evans

The Rams drafted Evans with the third-to-last pick of the sixth round. The draft capital spent on Evans might not be especially flattering, but the landing spot is a good one for the Ole Miss product. Cam Akers is the Rams’ starter, and Kyren Williams is an unproven second-year passing-down back. The only other running back on the Rams’ roster is Ronnie Rivers. There’s a good chance Evans will be Akers’ primary backup.

Evans is a patient runner with good vision and impressive burst. He was a playmaker throughout his three seasons at Ole Miss, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 10.8 yards per catch. Matt Waldman, author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, graded Evans and the best decision-maker in this year’s RB class.

Evans was listed at 212 pounds at Ole Miss but weighed only 202 pounds at the Scouting Combine. It’s also worth noting that Evans was relegated to a supporting role in his final college season behind freshman Quinshon Judkins, who had 1,567 rushing yards to Evans’ 936. Evans isn’t a very accomplished pass catcher, never having recorded more than 12 receptions in any of his three seasons with the Rebs.

The appealing landing spot makes Evans a reasonable option in the late third round of 1QB dynasty rookie drafts or in the fourth round of superflex drafts.