The NFL Draft is the ultimate game of risk. We think we know which players could develop into the league’s future superstars, but nobody really knows. If we did, we wouldn’t label player evaluations as projections.
NFL front offices and coaching staffs are annually putting their reputations on the line when they go on the clock and make their picks. While the stakes aren’t quite as high when cobbling together our fantasy football rosters, you’re definitely taking on risk when adding rookies to your fantasy roster. In an ideal world, rookies would make an immediate impact, but we know that often isn’t the case.
Of course, with high risk comes high reward. Just ask anyone who took Ja’Marr Chase in drafts a couple of seasons ago. With all that said, here are the riskiest prospects from a fantasy football perspective in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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2023 NFL Draft Picks: Riskiest Selections
Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
I mean, duh. Richardson is widely regarded as the riskiest pick in the entire 2023 draft class. Richardson could be the next in line to join Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts in the elite dual-threat QB club. He offers a ton of upside from a mobility standpoint.
That being said, Richardson left a lot to be desired as a passer at Florida, but I believe part of that can be attributed to a bizarre scheme. However, nobody really knows what Richardson’s ceiling is as a thrower.
Anyone drafting Richardson in fantasy has to factor in the possibility of 2023 being a redshirt year. Richardson is awfully talented, but he’s raw.
While most draft prognosticators can at least acknowledge Richardson’s ceiling, I get the sense there’s even more uncertainty around just how good Levis can be at the next level. Levis has a really strong arm, but he’s a bit of a mess mechanically. Any team that takes him better have a good QBs coach, because Levis needs to improve upon his fundamentals and his accuracy.
That being said, there’s a little bit of Josh Allen in his draft profile and projections: A tough, big-armed quarterback who needs some reeling in and can make plays with his legs when he has to. That’s a tantalizing package and one that’ll likely keep Levis within the top 10. But for every Josh Allen there’s a Zach Wilson.
This is a rather weak draft from a skill position standpoint, but Robinson stands head and shoulders among the other tailback, receiver and tight end prospects. There’s a ton to like with Robinson and, frankly, he’s as complete of a prospect as we’ve seen enter the draft in at least a few years. He will surely be an early-round pick for fantasy football players this summer.
The risk in Robinson comes more so with the position he plays, as there’s a growing movement against taking running backs in the first round of the draft, given the durability concerns at the position.
I’m not sure how much I care about positional value in the case of Robinson when evaluating him from a fantasy perspective. However, we did see last year’s first tailback taken, Breece Hall, start the season off in stellar fashion before tearing his ACL. Injury is a risk associated with any running back but considering Robinson will probably go in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts, I don’t blame you if you’d rather wait and see it.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
I fell in love with Smith-Njigba well before his Rose Bowl breakout two seasons ago but watch back that Rose Bowl performance and you’ll see everything I liked about him throughout the year amplified. He’s a tough receiver with great hands and is willing to go over the middle. Smith-Njigba likely projects as a starting slot receiver at the next level, but the question is whether he can win with speed against professional cornerbacks.
There’s also the element of the unknown with JSN, who hardly played during the 2022 season. Also, Smith-Njigba’s fantasy value in 2023 could be heavily tied to where he ends up in the draft.
Smith-Njigba’s upside will warrant a mid-to-late-round pick in fantasy drafts but we also need to verify that his 2021 campaign wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah)
I’m grouping these two tight ends together to serve as a warning when it comes to relying on rookie tight ends for fantasy production. Only two tight ends in NFL history have posted 1,000 yards in their rookie campaigns: Mike Ditka and Kyle Pitts.
Pitts barely crossed this milestone with 1,026 yards and he caught only one touchdown during his rookie campaign. Also, neither Mayer nor Kincaid are on the same level as Pitts was when coming out.
Both guys could wind up in great landing spots after the draft and they could be their teams’ day-one starters. I’m just here to tell you that relying on one of them, let alone both of them, to put up TE1 numbers as a rookie is asking a lot.
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