Browns Draft Cedric Tillman: Dynasty Rookie Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Cedric Tillman.

Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Browns Draft Cedric Tillman

Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Cedric Tillman.

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp

Player comparison: Michael Pittman Jr.

The son of a former NFL receiver and brother of a former FBS receiver, and the product of a powerhouse high school (Bishop Gorman) and blueblood college (Tennessee), Cedric Tillman is being slept on this draft process. Let’s talk about why.

Tillman’s detractors say he’s a fifth-year entrant who was only good for a stretch of his fourth-year junior season. This is a statement that requires context. Between 2018-2020, Tillman’s first three years at Tennessee, the Volunteers were in the last three years of the doomed Jeremy Pruitt era.

The offense was rudderless, helmed by the much-maligned QB Jarrett Guarantano. While the quarterback play and play-calling left much to be desired, the Vols happened to be stocked in skill talent.

In those three years, the receiver rooms included Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, Josh Palmer, and Velus Jones Jr. You can forgive Tillman for getting stuck behind four NFL receivers out of high school (and maybe even give Tillman credit for sticking it out?).

In 2021, the Josh Heupel era began. Heupel realized what he had in Tillman. During the meat of the schedule that year, Cedric Tillman dominated elite competition week in and week out. He continued this into the 2022 season — until he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3.

If you combine the last seven games of 2021 with the first two of 2022 — nine games total — Tillman posted a 63-1,101-11 receiving line. That’s an average of seven catches for 122 yards and more than one TD per game.

Here’s who Tennessee played in those nine games: (2021) Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Purdue, Kentucky, and (2022) Pittsburgh. Strong competition. And Tillman wasn’t hiding. He was the clear WR1 alpha on the boundary.

Tillman battled back from that high-ankle sprain to have seven catches on eight targets against Georgia’s national-title-winning defense late in the 2022 season. Then he had nine catches against a South Carolina squad that finished the season on a heater.

Of his 101 catches between 2021-2022, 19 were contested. Tillman was insanely efficient on his force-fed targets, dropping a mere 4.4% of catchable career targets. During his breakout 2021 campaign, he posted a mind-melting 155.8 QB rating on his 86 targets.

Tillman is big, strong, long, springy, sure-handed, and north-south explosive. He comes with adequate speed for his size (4.54). He is a proven downfield home-run hitter against the best competition college football had to offer over the past two years.

He’s not the most elusive receiver, with mediocre agility. But his route breaks are crisper than he’s given credit for because of his attention to footwork and his plus body control. What I appreciate about Tillman is he knows his limitations, he works around them, and he’s tailored a game around maximizing his strengths.

I see a prototypical NFL WR2 — the downfield utility speaks for itself and will translate due to Tillman’s body control and ball skills in traffic, and he’ll provide more move-the-chains utility than he’s getting credit for. Will be had on a discount in April simply because of last year’s circumstantial high-ankle sprain.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Cedric Tillman

The Browns got another pass catcher for Deshaun Watson, grabbing Tillman in the third round of the draft. It’s not an ideal spot for Tillman from a dynasty perspective, as he’ll find himself behind Amari Cooper, Donovan people-Jones and Elijah Moore on the Browns’ WR depth chart.

In a WR class loaded with smaller receivers, the 6-3, 213-pound Tillman stands out as a classic big-bodied X-receiver type. With 4.54 speed, Tillman isn’t a burner, but his exceptional ball skills and body control ed to 16 catches of 25+ yards over the last two years, per Dane Brugler of The Athletic.

The knocks on Tillman are that he’s an overaged (23) prospect who had just one noteworthy college season (64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 TDs in 2021). It’s also mildly concerning that Tillman played in a simplified offense at Tennessee in which he only lined up on the right side of the field.

With the somewhat disappointing landing spot, Tillman might only be a late-second-round or early-third-round pick in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and a third-rounder in superflex drafts.