The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Marvin Mims.
Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Broncos Draft Marvin Mims
Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Marvin Mims.
Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp
Player comparison: Tyler Lockett
To this day, the all-time Texas prep leader in receiving yards. Mims flashed immediately at Oklahoma, posting a ridiculous 88.8 PFF grade as a true freshman. Greatness was expected. But over the last two years, his PFF grades fell under 76.0 each time. Mims’ draft evaluation hinges on whether you think that’s his fault, or Oklahoma’s fault.
So let’s explore the last two years of Sooners football. In 2021, QB Spencer Rattler imploded and was eventually benched for true freshman Caleb Williams, and HC Lincoln Riley had one foot out the door. In 2022, following Riley’s departure for USC (Williams left with him), the Sooners were a directionless 6-7 mess under new HC Brent Venables.
This is what I like about Marvin Mims: He was a star immediately for a guy who will go down as one of the best offensive coaches in college football history, he can win from anywhere in the alignment (45.5% slot, 53.8% outside in college), and he is a deep-ball assassin despite his size. Mims’ highlight reel of catches might be the best in this entire class. His body control is incredible, and his hands are ultra-reliable.
Get this: Despite having 36% or more of his usage coming on throws 20+ yards downfield all three seasons of his career — for a bloated career 16.7 aDOT — Mims dropped only seven balls on 177 career targets (5.4% drop rate).
Mims also averaged 19.0 yards per punt return in Norman. He projects as a plus return man at the next level. The risk in his profile comes from his small frame and lack of length in conjunction with his longball-heavy game in college.
In the NFL, Mims will be asked to win in the short and intermediate areas far more often than he was asked to do so at Oklahoma — how will he do with that? Agility does not seem to be a concern. He posted a 73rd-percentile 3-cone at the NFL Combine, and he can very clearly boogie on the field.
But Mims very clearly lacks play strength. And at Oklahoma, he got free releases plenty. In the NFL, he will be tested in this regard. Corners will play up and try to get their hands on him. Can Mims consistently release clean? Further, will being jarred along the route always be a fly in the ointment of his route-running machinations against bigger, stronger NFL corners?
I don’t believe Marvin Mims will be an NFL star. But it would be a surprise if he isn’t a starter for a long time. He’s too athletic and too skilled — he’s succeeded for too long — not to be.
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Marvin Mims
The Broncos didn’t have a pick until late in the second round, so their selection of Mims with that pick is a noteworthy endorsement. Denver already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton at wide receiver, although both were rumored to be on the trading block during the offseason. If they’re both around in 2023, it’s hard to see Mims having an immediate impact. But if either of them is traded, Mims could end up being a Week 1 starter.
Mims is a versatile downfield playmaker who lined up both inside and outside during his college career at Oklahoma. With 4.38 speed, a 39.5-inch vertical jump and terrific body control, Mims is a big play waiting to happen. In his two seasons as a college starter at Oklahoma, Mims averaged 20.8 yards per catch. He holds the Texas high school record for career receiving yardage, and in his senior year of high school he had 2,626 receiving yards and 31 touchdowns.
The 5-11, 183-pound Mims is going to face more physical cornerbacks in the NFL and will have to learn how to consistently defeat press coverage.
In dynasty leagues, Mims will probably come off the board in the early-to-mid second round in 1QB rookie drafts and late in the second round in superflex drafts.
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