The age-old question in dynasty fantasy football: Does pure talent or landing spot matter more? Both are critical, but the answer is pure talent. It doesn’t matter if a player lands in the perfect landing spot if he has no talent. Meanwhile, a superstar talent will succeed despite landing in a less-than-ideal situation.
So what is the ideal landing spot for the top rookies in the 2023 NFL Draft from a fantasy football perspective? I have provided that answer for 15 of the top prospects this year. However, the landing spots will be realistic, given where the prospect projects to get drafted at the end of the month. Therefore, Bijan Robinson won’t be joining the Miami Dolphins.
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Ideal NFL Draft Landing Spots (2023 Fantasy Football)
Bryce Young (QB – Alabama) | Best Fit: Houston Texans
Will Bryce Young land in Houston? The betting market thinks so. More importantly, the Texans are the best landing spot for the former Alabama quarterback. Young ended his college career with over 8,300 passing yards and 80 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the only knock against him is his size. However, the Texans have improved their offensive line over the past year, including using a first-round pick on Kenyon Green in 2022 and trading for Shaq Mason this offseason. With some potential promising young wide receivers on the roster, Young could be the final piece needed for Houston’s offense.
C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State) | Best Fit: Carolina Panthers
C.J. Stroud is a heavy favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s good news for fantasy managers, as Carolina is an excellent fit for the Ohio State quarterback. After trading away DJ Moore to acquire the No. 1 overall pick, the Panthers have added Adam Thielen and DJ Chark Jr. in free agency. Furthermore, Terrace Marshall Jr. flashed some potential in his second NFL season. More importantly, the team still has an early second-round pick (39th overall) they can use on a wide receiver. Stroud is good at getting the ball out of his quickly and on time, which he will need without an elite No. 1 wide receiver on the roster.
Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida) | Best Fit: Indianapolis Colts
While Young and Stroud are the top two quarterbacks in the Draft this year, Anthony Richardson is the ultimate wild card. He has more upside than any other quarterback this year. However, the former Gator also has arguably the lowest floor. Yet, that doesn’t matter to fantasy managers because of his rushing ability. Richardson is a mix of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen running the ball. The former Gator had nine rushing touchdowns last year. More importantly, new head coach Shane Steichen had success in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. Fantasy players should expect 2021 Hurts-like numbers from Richardson as a rookie if he lands in Indianapolis.
Will Levis (QB – Kentucky) | Best Fit: Las Vegas Raiders
After some momentum earlier this offseason, the talk of Will Levis being the first overall pick has died off. However, the former Kentucky star is likely a top-10 NFL Draft pick. The Colts have been a popular landing spot for Levis, but the best spot would be the Raiders. Las Vegas signed Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, but his contract has an out after the first season. More importantly, the Raiders have appealing weapons with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. Levis will likely spend most of his rookie season on the bench in Las Vegas. Yet, he would walk into an appealing situation in 2024.
Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee) | Best Fit: Seattle Seahawks
Hendon Hooker was a likely first-round NFL Draft pick before tearing his ACL at Tennessee. However, the former Volunteer has progressed well in his recovery and should be ready for Week 1. Therefore, it’s no surprise Hooker is back in the first-round pick conversation. I believe the Seahawks will use their later first-round pick or early second-round selection on Hooker if they don’t select a quarterback with the fifth-overall pick. Geno Smith‘s contract has an out after next season. That will allow the team to sit Hooker his entire rookie year before handing over the starting job in 2024. More importantly, the former Volunteer would have an excellent supporting cast led by DK Metcalf and Ken Walker III.
Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas) | Best Fit: Philadelphia Eagles
Many believe Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Others believe the former Longhorn is the best prospect since Ricky Williams. Therefore, a lot of dynasty analysts have already made Robinson their RB1 in their startup rankings. The best fit has always been Philadelphia for the former Longhorn. The Eagles have the 10th-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and lost Miles Sanders this offseason. Meanwhile, the addition of Rashaad Penny is a low-risk, high-reward move. He will not keep the Eagles from drafting Robinson 10th overall if that’s what the team wants to do. The former Longhorn will be a fantasy superstar regardless of which team picks him.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama) | Best Fit: Cincinnati Bengals
Last year Joe Mixon had a disappointing season. He was the RB12 last year, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, a deeper dive changes things. Mixon would have been the RB21, averaging 12 fantasy points per game last year, if you remove his massive Week 9 performance against the Panthers. Furthermore, the veteran running back could be a cap casualty after the NFL Draft. The Bengals would save $10 million by releasing Mixon. Meanwhile, Samaje Perine had a career year in 2022 but signed with the Denver Broncos in free agency. At worse, Jahmyr Gibbs would split the backfield work with Mixon next year before taking over as the lead RB in 2024.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State) | Best Fit: Chicago Bears
Some, including myself, would love to see Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba play together in Houston. The Texans have the second and 12th overall picks, meaning it could happen. Yet, the best landing spot for the former Buckeye wide receiver is the Bears. Yes, the team has a crowded wide receiver room with Moore, Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. However, Claypool and Mooney are entering the final year of their contracts. With big money invested in Moore, the Bears are unlikely to re-sign both. Furthermore, they could let both walk in free agency next offseason. Pairing Smith-Njigba and Moore with Justin Fields for the next several years would be a dream come true for fantasy managers.
Jordan Addison (WR – USC) | Best Fit: New York Giants
The Giants made a blockbuster move this offseason, trading for Darren Waller. Yet, the star tight end has struggled with injuries, missing over 40% of his games over the past two years. New York signed several wide receivers this offseason, but none of them are No. 1-caliber players. However, Jordan Addison can be just that for the Giants. He was a target machine two years ago at Pittsburgh with Kenny Pickett, having the second-most receptions in the ACC with 100. The former Trojan likely would lead all rookies in targets if he lands in New York.
Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College) | Best Fit: Buffalo Bills
Two years ago, the Bills had five players with over 540 receiving yards: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, and Gabe Davis. However, only Diggs and Davis hit that mark last year. Knox had 517 receiving yards, but Isaiah McKenzie was the only other wide receiver with more than 165 receiving yards in 2022 for Buffalo. This offseason, the team released McKenzie and signed Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. That’s not enough. Zay Flowers would be the perfect replacement for McKenzie, giving Allen his best slot receiver since Beasley’s 2021 season. Furthermore, Davis is a free agent next offseason. That means Flowers could be the No. 2 pass catcher on a dangerous Buffalo offense in 2024.
Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU) | Best Fit: Carolina Panthers
I briefly touched on this earlier with Stroud. The Panthers had to give up Moore in the trade for the No. 1 overall pick. Carolina wisely added Thielen and Chark Jr. in free agency. However, neither is a long-term piece of the offense. Regardless of which quarterback the team drafts first overall, the Panthers need to add a wide receiver with their early second-round pick. Carolina could also potentially trade into the late first round to secure a wide receiver if one they like starts to slide. Quentin Johnston hasn’t had the best pre-Draft process. Yet, he can be the No. 1 WR in Carolina for years to come.
Jalin Hyatt (WR – Tennessee) | Best Fit: Tennessee Titans
Speed is the name of the game for Jalin Hyatt. The former Volunteer had a breakout 2022 season, totaling 67 receptions for 1,267 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Last year the Titans used a first-round pick on Treylon Burks after trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles. Unfortunately, the former Arkansas star had a disappointing rookie season. Tennessee still has high expectations for Burks. Yet, he is their only promising wide receiver on the roster. Meanwhile, the Titans lost Robert Woods and Austin Hooper this offseason. The duo was the top two targeted Titans last year, combining for 151. After releasing Woods this offseason, Hyatt would have a clear path to starting opposite Burks as a rookie.
Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame) | Best Fit: Detroit Lions
The last thing Lion fans want is a first-round tight end. Yet, Michael Mayer would be an excellent fit in Detroit. The team has a pair of young talented wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. However, the Lions don’t have many other pass-catchers besides those two and D’Andre Swift. Despite the lack of big-name players on the roster, nine receiving touchdowns were scored by a Detroit tight end other than T.J. Hockenson last year. Mayer ended his college career with 18 receiving touchdowns. If the Lions aren’t going to replace Jared Goff during the 2023 NFL Draft, they should give him a mismatch weapon at tight end.
Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia) | Best Fit: Cincinnati Bengals
If the Bengals don’t draft a running with their first-round pick, don’t be surprised if they take a tight end. They lost Hayden Hurst in free agency but signed Irv Smith Jr. However, the former Minnesota Viking has struggled with injuries in his career, missing 76.5% of the contests over the past two years. Furthermore, he has never turned into a consistent starting tight end. Meanwhile, Darnell Washington had a limited receiving role at Georgia but has the athletic skill set to develop into a difference-maker in the NFL. More importantly, Tyler Boyd likely won’t be on the team a year from now, providing Washington with a larger target share.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah) | Best Fit: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas used the franchise tag on Dalton Schultz last offseason as the veteran tight end was coming off a career year in 2021. However, injuries caused the tight end to regress in 2022, and the Cowboys didn’t re-sign him. While the team spent a fourth-round pick on Jake Ferguson last year, Dalton Kincaid is a far superior prospect. More importantly, Schultz had averaged 5.9 targets per game over the past three years. Kincaid ended his college career with back-to-back years with eight receiving touchdowns. While the Cowboys added Brandin Cooks this offseason, there is plenty of available targets for the former Utah star in Dallas.
Mock NFL Drafts
- Thor Nystrom’s Mock Drafts (1.0)
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- Kent Weyrauch’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0)
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- Russell Brown (1.0)
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
