With a matter of weeks till the NFL draft, there is still time to draft plenty of best ball teams and adjust your exposures to players you want to have strong closing line value on. Rookies, in particular, will experience a bump in their value when we know their landing spots, while veterans are susceptible to drops down the draft boards. These are the players you should be targeting before the next set of best ball competitions rolls out. ADP is taken from Underdog’s Big Board: Superflex contest.
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Targets
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) and Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): ADP 16.1 and 18.7
We’ll start things off with a Dolphins stack that, on the surface of things, looks like great value. If you’re picking around the eleventh or twelfth pick in the first round, then you can stack what was a highly explosive fantasy duo in 2022. In the games that both players were healthy, Tyreek Hill averaged 18.29 half-PPR points per game, with an average of 106.21 receiving yards. In the games where Tagovailoa was missing due to multiple concussions, Hill’s production dropped slightly to 14.89 points and 72.9 yards.
Tagovailoa is currently being drafted as the QB11, which is a discount on the production he managed when healthy in 2022. In games where Tagovailoa played 75% or more of the snaps, he averaged 19.3 fantasy points, which was the equivalent of the QB7 in points per game. There is an element of the unknown with Tagovailoa’s long-term health, but the team has done nothing to indicate that they share any concerns. This is, after all, best ball where we can build around that uncertainty and try to build a four-quarterback room for Superflex drafts, giving us that extra safety net.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL): ADP 41.3
If Ezekiel Elliott had not been cut, then we would have been relying on Pollard’s incredible efficiency in order for him to pay off in 2023 fantasy football. Now that Elliott has been released, there should be no doubt that Pollard is going to see a massive uptick in volume for 2023. In 2022 Pollard had 12 touchdowns, which was the fourth-most for a running back. He also created the highest fantasy points over expected and had the third most big runs. Pollard did all of this on 15.0 touches per game, which was less than Latavius Murray averaged. The Cowboys gave a total of 32.1 touches per game to Pollard and Elliott combined, and barring Bijan Robinson being drafted by the Cowboys, everything points toward Pollard seeing a higher amount of touches this year.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): ADP 51.8
After a fantastic end to the 2021 season, when Mark Andrews was able to showcase his abilities with Tyler Huntley under center, the two weren’t able to repeat the achievement in 2022 when Huntley again filled in for Lamar Jackson. The contract situation surrounding Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem to be over yet, but everything that we’re hearing indicates Jackson’s most likely outcome is staying in Baltimore, in which case Andrews’ ADP will only rise. Good tight ends are hard to find, and he’s one of a very small number of tight ends who can routinely put up big performances, with four games over 18 half PPR points in 2022.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN): ADP 63.0
2022 wasn’t a pretty year for the Denver Broncos, who found themselves neck-deep in disappointment, but as the season spiraled and less attention was paid to them, there were some rays of light for fans of Jerry Jeudy. Over Weeks 11 to 17, Jeudy was the half PPR WR12 scoring 14.2 points per game at an average of 2.7 fantasy points per touch, which was equal to Justin Jefferson during that period. The Broncos were struggling to stay on the field, and Jeudy had to be efficient. With upgrades to the coaching staff and offensive line, there is reason to think that the offense should be more competent in 2023, as well as rumors continue to swirl that Courtland Sutton may be available in a trade. At WR28, there are a lot of paths for Jeudy to pay off this ADP.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – FA): ADP 73.9
The top wide receivers in each class nearly always see a bump in ADP once selected by NFL teams, and for some more than others, they are a safe bet for that increase. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of those players, in part because he seems like the most likely choice to be the first wide receiver off the board. There are a few offenses where Jaxon Smith-Njigba might not be the primary target, but he’s an elite pass-catcher from the slot and will earn targets at a high enough rate to make himself very relevant and will likely rarely come off the field. We’ve seen players labeled as slot receivers come into the league and be fantasy superstars, most recently Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson, who followed in the footsteps of Cooper Kupp. This is the ceiling we can chase with Smith-Njigba.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): ADP 123.6
The Buccanneers moved on from Tom Brady at a time when they had little cap room and plenty of holes on their roster, but they have enough to stay competitive in the questionable NFC South. Before free agency opened, reports started to leak out that Tampa was interested in Baker Mayfield, and since then, it has been reported that the Buccanneers were Mayfield’s first choice for his destination. Mayfield now finds himself in Tampa Bay in a QB competition between himself and Kyle Trask, a former second-round pick who didn’t start games when Tom Brady sat out over the last two years. Trask has nine passing attempts through two seasons, and Mayfield is likely the favorite to start the majority of games. Given the excellent wide receivers Tampa boasts, Mayfield is a nice player to round out the quarterback room of your roster.
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