It’s open season on rookies in best ball! Now is the time to make bold landing spot predictions, grab shares at value while you still have the chance, and avoid potential duds.
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Best Ball Rookies to Target
Zach Charbonnet (RB – UCLA)
I just witnessed Bijan Robinson go 12th overall in one of my best ball drafts and his price is steadily rising as we get closer to the draft. If you’re looking for a potential value play at running back, draft Zach Charbonnet. The gap in ADP for the top three rookie running backs is significant. Jamyr Gibbs is going a full 50 picks after Robinson while Charbonnet is going over 50 picks after Gibbs. It’s possible that Charbonnet is the second running back off the board in the NFL draft. Charbonnet is a true three-down back and while he may not offer the dynamic receiving abilities of someone like Gibbs, he has solid hands and can provide enough upside for true best ball impact.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
It was tough to pick one wide receiver to target because rookie receiver ADPs are all extremely reasonable right now. In my current best ball drafts, I’m grabbing a significant amount of rookies because the price is right! But if I had to pick one, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an excellent best ball target. Smith-Njigba is currently being drafted as a low-end WR3. That’s a solid range to take a chance on a rookie receiver. Smith-Njigba is going just before receivers like George Pickens, Marquise Brown, and Diontae Johnson – players with potentially limited upside due to team offensive woes. 2022 was a highly disappointing season from Smith-Njigba, but when drafting him in best ball, you’re hoping he returns to his 2021 form which included 95 receptions, 1,606 yards, and nine touchdowns.
Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
Jordan Addison has been one of the more heavily debated top options at receiver. Despite his impressive in-season performance, Addison had an underwhelming combine measuring at 5’11” and just 173 pounds with a 4.49 40. Many analysts are concerned his size won’t translate to the NFL but I’m willing to take the risk in best ball with Addison’s current ADP sitting at WR48. Addison’s skillset can translate to immediate production. He’s excellent at reading coverages and creating separation, has great hands and route-running capabilities, and is strong with yards after the catch. At his ADP, he’s well worth the risk.
Best Ball Rookies to Avoid
Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)
I love Robinson just as much as the next person but as I hinted earlier, the ADP has gotten out of control. Avoiding Robinson is related to his talent or potential. He’s the clear RB1 of his class. But drafting Robinson as a late first, early second-round pick before we know his landing spot just feels irresponsible. He could land somewhere like Tampa Bay where he’d likely have first rights to RB1, but in an offense that had the worst yards per carry in 2022. He could go to a committee offense with a rushing quarterback like Philadelphia or Baltimore. And it’s possible a team with a superstar RB1 could draft him as the heir-apparent like the Chargers. The possibilities are too vast for his current ADP and that ADP is unlikely to rise post-draft. I prefer Robinson as a post-draft investment.
Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)
I can understand why some fantasy managers still believe in Kayshon Boutte. Boutte showed promise before suffering injuries but his 2022 season was average at best with just 538 yards and two touchdowns. And after a disappointing combine, Boutte shows little upside. Boutte is currently sitting around players like John Metchie, Mecole Hardman, and Tim Patrick, and while those names don’t scream “league winner,” I’d far prefer to target any of those options above a receiver who could struggle to find the field.
Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
The justification for avoiding Mayer is very simple. Rookie tight ends struggle to make a significant impact. Mayer is an intriguing option, set to likely be the first tight end off the board in the draft, but the breakout rookie tight end could easily come from a player like Dalton Kincaid or Darnell Washington. There are also few locations where Mayer could land and find immediate production. Taking a swing on Mayer isn’t the worst idea, however, it’s highly unlikely he outperforms players from other positions at his overall ADP. He’s not a risky pick, but he certainly lacks upside. He’ll make little impact in best ball.
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