It’s never too early to start looking ahead at the fantasy landscape to see which expert consensus rankings you disagree with the most. There’s plenty of value out there being overlooked, as some in the space may be overreacting to disappointing seasons specific players had last year. The inverse is also true, as some fantasy managers may ignore changing circumstances and draft athletes higher than they should based on last year’s stats. Which players do our featured experts project differently than their peers? Read on to find out.
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Matthew Freedman’s Latest NFL Mock Draft
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Trade Strategy & Advice
- Latest Dynasty Startup Mock Draft
Early Fantasy Football RB & WR Rankings Disagreements
Which half-PPR RB consensus ranking do you disagree with the most and why?
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
“Nick Chubb at RB8 is just wrong. The Browns’ running back averaged 5.0 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns in 2022, finishing the year as the RB6 overall with a top-10 backfield opportunity share (64%). During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Chubb was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won’t carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense’s overall efficiency, making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb can also capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson gone in free agency.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)
“Miles Sanders as the RB20 is way too low. The Panthers have shown they’re capable of establishing the run very effectively even when their quarterback was awful, so picking up C.J. Stroud and a couple of receiving upgrades should only improve their offense as a whole. Carolina also has one of the league’s better defenses, meaning a lot of low-scoring games, which suit running backs. I love Sanders as a high-end RB2 with upside.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
“I don’t want to draft Najee in the year the team realizes he’s terribly inefficient and stops heavily relying on him so heavily just because they drafted him highly a few years prior. Very few RBs have done less with more. Small workload changes will be detrimental to Najee if he can’t become more efficient.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“Cam Akers deserves more respect. Is his RB18 ranking a surly spit-in-the-face type of moment? No. Is it giving Akers his due after last year’s production? No. Last year inside a broken offense, Akers crushed souls down the stretch. In Weeks 10-18, Akers demonstrated that his pre-Achilles tear juice had returned, ranking 21st in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 rushing attempts). Zooming in further, in Weeks 13-18, Akers failed to eclipse a 72% snap share in only one game, as he averaged 19.1 touches and 101.8 total yards as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. With the offensive line healthy, Cooper Kupp healthy and Matthew Stafford returning, Akers should be a locked-and-loaded RB1 and should be ranked as such.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“It’s strange that Breece Hall (RB11) isn’t a consensus top-10 RB. Hall was averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before a torn ACL prematurely ended his rookie season. He didn’t get double-digit carries until his fourth game, and then he got hurt early in his seventh game after he’d carried four times for 72 yards and a touchdown that day. In the four-game run from Week 3 to Week 6 where Hall had at least a 50% snap share in every game, he averaged a little over 120 scrimmage yards and scored three touchdowns. And those weren’t terrible defenses he was facing in that four-game stretch — the Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins and Packers. Hall was injured relatively early in the season, and it wasn’t a multi-ligament injury. He should be good to go for Week 1. If indeed the Jets acquire Aaron Rodgers, their offense should be significantly better, meaning more TD opportunities for Hall. He’s my RB6.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Which half-PPR WR consensus ranking do you disagree with the most and why?
Mike Evans (WR – TB)
“Mike Evans slots in as the WR32 in ECR. Evans was the WR32 before his Week 17 eruption in points per game in the NFL’s most pass-heavy offense last season. Without Tom Brady, this team is going to throw substantially less. The downtick in passing volume and efficiency will hurt the fantasy value of Evans, who will be 30 by the time the season starts. History has not been kind to the aging, big-bodied wide receivers who don’t win with separation later in their careers. Evans is a major boom-or-bust fantasy WR3/4 whomyou should only select when he falls too far in drafts. Even if he continues his 1,000-yard-season streak, he could easily see his TD total plummet. He’s too rich for my blood at WR32.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
“Deebo Samuel as the WR16 is insanely high and isn’t reflective of how small his role in this offense has become. Christian McCaffrey is now the main man, with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk also major target-drains. Given this isn’t really a pass-heavy offense, and given its mediocre quarterbacking, it’s hard to see Samuel reaching his WR2-level valuation, let alone surpassing it. He was the WR42 on a per-game basis after McCaffrey’s arrival, and he didn’t even have Kittle to compete with at the time. Samuel is barely a WR3, and without an injuries to at least two teammates, it’s unlikely he’s going to get close to WR16 value.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“It’s time to slow down on St. Brown. The massive value he presented last year in drafts has been vaporized. While a good WR, he’s also proven to be a volume-dependent, low depth of target, chain mover. He’ll have a tough time returning your investment at his current ADP. Not the profile I’m looking for in my WR1.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
“As I type this, DeAndre Hopkins is still on the Cardinals’ roster, but the writing is on the wall that won’t be the case by Week 1. That said, Marquise Brown should be ranked as a WR2, and he’s not. That will change as soon as Hopkins moves on to his next franchise, as many rush to adjust their rankings. I’ll happily prefer to stay ahead of the curve. Brown showed last year that he shouldn’t be questioned as a No. 1 option in a passing attack. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR7 in fantasy with a 26% target share, a 40.5% air yard share, and 2.00 yards per route run. He was 24th in open rate last year, immediately behind Jakobi Meyers (per ESPN analytics). Brown’s ranking should be adjusted immediately to WR2 territory with WR1 upside.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Marquise Brown’s ECR of WR33 seems overly rosy. Hollywood is widely regarded as a big-play guy, but over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 10.9 yards per catch and a pedestrian 6.8 yards per target. For his career, he’s scored 24 touchdowns in 58 games. The 5-9, 180-pound Brown isn’t built for a high-volume role and missed five games last season with a broken foot. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray isn’t likely to be ready for the start of the season after tearing his ACL in mid-December, capping Hollywood’s early-season potential. I have Brown at WR40 and probably won’t roster him in any of my leagues.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio