Arguably the best part of the NFL Draft is the surprise trades that happen when teams are on the clock. The best mock drafters try to predict when these trades will happen, but it’s near impossible to do.

Over the past few years, we’ve seen a decline in trades made during the first round. There were four in 2020, with three coming in a four-pick span in the mid-20s. The following year, we only had three first-round trades.

The Philadelphia Eagles traded picks 12 and 84 to the Dallas Cowboys for pick 10 to secure DeVonta Smith. Meanwhile, the Cowboys drafted Micah Parsons with the 12th pick. However, the Chicago Bears traded pick 20, 164, plus a first and fourth-round pick in 2022 to the New York Giants for pick 11. The Bears drafted Justin Fields with that selection and have never been happier.

While we had only seven first-round trades in 2020 and 2021 combined, we saw an uptick in first-round trades last year. The top 10 was quiet. However, things quickly changed when the Washington Commanders went on the clock at 11th overall.

They traded the pick to the New Orleans Saints so they could draft Chris Olave. Then the Minnesota Vikings sent pick 12 to the Detroit Lions in a blockbuster move for Jameson Williams. With the Baltimore Ravens picking next, the Eagles moved up two spots from 15th to 13th to draft Jordan Davis.

However, things only got crazier from there. The Eagles traded picks 18 and 101 to the Tennessee Titans for A.J. Brown. Baltimore also sent Marquise Brown and a third-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for pick 23. The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills also moved up for a pair of cornerbacks.

To end the night, the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars traded back into the late first round to grab a pair of defenders. The Jets selected Jermaine Johnson II in a trade with the Titans at pick 26. Meanwhile, the Jaguars acquired the 27th overall pick from Tampa Bay Buccaneers and drafted Devin Lloyd.

We had nine first-round trades last year, all coming outside the top 10 picks. Will we have a similar result this year? There probably won’t be nine first-round trades, but I believe we will see at least five, with one or two happening in the top 10 picks.

So, which teams could trade up, down, or both on draft night? Let’s take a look.

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Teams That Could Trade Back

Houston Texans

All offseason, everyone expected the Texans to take a quarterback with the second overall pick. Yet, the team reportedly doesn’t love the quarterback class outside of Bryce Young. Therefore, they could select Will Anderson if the Carolina Panthers draft Young first overall. However, another option is trading the pick to a quarterback-needy team. Several teams will be ready to move up for a quarterback, with the Indianapolis Colts picking fourth overall.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has been a popular trade team in mock drafts. They are the only team in the top seven that absolutely won’t draft a quarterback. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a roster full of needs and a first-year general manager. Even if the Texans draft a quarterback second overall, teams will want to jump the Colts for the third quarterback off the board. Furthermore, the Cardinals could trade DeAndre Hopkins during the draft, similar to how they acquired Brown last year from the Ravens. However, it won’t be for a first-round pick.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl but have a top-10 pick from the Saints because of a trade last offseason. However, the NFC champions have only six picks this year. General manager Howie Roseman made two trades during the first round of last year’s draft. Therefore, it won’t be a surprise to see him move back and acquire more draft capital, especially after the team lost several free agents this offseason. Furthermore, Philadelphia is a prime trade candidate if one of the top four quarterbacks slides out of the top eight selections, with the Tennessee Titans picking 11th.

Minnesota Vikings

Last year the Vikings made two blockbuster trades within the division. They traded with the Lions in the first round. Then Minnesota traded pick 34 (which they got from Detroit) to the Green Bay Packers for a pair of later second-round picks. The Packers selected Christian Watson with the 34th overall selection. Furthermore, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah isn’t afraid to make big moves, trading for T.J. Hockenson during the season. Unfortunately, the Vikings have only five picks this year, one of the fewest in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if Adofo-Mensah trades out of the first round entirely to acquire 2-3 more draft picks.

Teams That Could Trade Up

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have undergone massive changes at quarterback this offseason. They released long-time franchise starter Derek Carr and signed Jimmy Garoppolo as his replacement. Yet, Las Vegas can cut Garoppolo after only one year with the team. That has left the door open for the team to draft a quarterback in the first round this year. However, will one be available when the Raiders are on the clock at seventh overall? More importantly, will it be the quarterback they want? Las Vegas has 12 picks this year, including four in the top 100. They have the draft ammo needed to get a deal done with the Texans or Cardinals if they want.

Tennessee Titans

Over the past few years, the Titans have been the top team in the AFC South. Unfortunately, that ended last year. They hired Ran Carthon away from the San Francisco 49ers this offseason. Some believe he was hired to help the team undergo a rebuilding process. Furthermore, Ryan Tannehill will turn 35 before the start of the 2023 season and is entering the final year of his contract. Meanwhile, the front office appears to have no faith in Malik Willis. It will likely cost them multiple future first-round picks, however, don’t be surprised if the Titans repeat what the 49ers did a few years ago and trade up from 11 to third overall for a quarterback.

New York Giants

It’s been an odd offseason for the Giants. They signed Daniel Jones to a long-term deal right before the franchise tag deadline, allowing them to use the tag on Saquon Barkley. Then, New York traded a late third-round pick for Darren Waller. However, they still lack an alpha wide receiver. Instead of trading for one, the Giants re-signed and added multiple slot and role players. Yet, that might have been by design. New York has nine picks this year, thus giving them the draft capital needed to jump ahead of several wide receiver-needy teams on draft day. Don’t be surprised if the Giants jump into the top 20 to secure Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers.

Kansas City Chiefs

Last year the Chiefs traded a third and fourth-round pick to the New England Patriots to move up eight spots to secure Trent McDuffie. Brett Veach and Andy Reid have always been aggressive on draft day, including in 2017 when they traded up for Patrick Mahomes. This year the team has 10 draft picks, including five in the top 135. Kansas City lost both starting tackles in free agency. While they signed Jawaan Taylor, the Chiefs haven’t addressed the other starting spot. If one of the top four offensive tackles starts to slide into the late teens, expect Kansas City to work the phones and move up. One potential trade partner is the Lions at 18th overall.

Teams That Could Do Both

Detroit Lions

Speaking of the Lions, Detroit has nine picks this year, including two inside the top 20. They will severely impact the draft by what they do sixth overall. Detroit could draft a quarterback to replace Jared Goff in a year. The Lions could also select the first cornerback off the board and continue to fix their defense. However, they could fall in love with one of the quarterbacks and use their draft ammo to move up to second or third overall pick.

Yet, Detroit could also move back from sixth overall and allow a team like the Titans to move up. With the Raiders picking seventh, many believe the top four quarterbacks won’t make it out of the top seven picks. Therefore, if a team wants to move up and secure the last of those quarterbacks, Detroit is the team they need to call.

Chicago Bears

The Bears got a bounty of draft capital when they traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers. They acquired a future first and second-round pick, but Chicago also got DJ Moore. Furthermore, the Bears got the 61st overall pick in the draft in the trade. The team has 10 total picks this year, including four in the top 64. When they were picking first overall, Jalen Carter was a popular choice for Chicago. If the team wants the former Bulldog, they could trade up with either the Seattle Seahawks at fifth overall or the Lions at sixth for the star defensive lineman.

While trading up is possible, the Bears could also slide back from ninth overall. The team solved their top need on offense with the addition of Moore. They could take an offensive lineman with their first-round pick, but that’s not a lock. Meanwhile, the Eagles, Titans, and Texans are picking 10th, 11th, and 12th. All three teams could be in the market for an edge rusher or an offensive lineman. Teams like the New York Jets (picking 13th overall) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (17th overall) could be interested in moving ahead of those three teams. Whether for an offensive tackle or an edge rusher, Chicago will be open to moving back and adding more draft capital.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.