As the 2023 NFL Draft approaches, aside from the well-documented drama surrounding the top four quarterbacks, most of the controversy in the draft class revolves around four positions: wide receivers, tight ends, defensive ends, and cornerbacks.
Relative to these groups, other positions, including running backs, offensive linemen, defensive tackles, linebackers and safeties, have achieved more of a consensus among observers.
Therefore, I’ll approach this article by looking at some potential first-round picks at the more controversial positions and sharing my current thoughts on which players may hear their names called on the first day.
As always, feedback is appreciated, and I can be reached on Twitter @draftexaminer.
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2023 NFL Draft Prospects Risers & Fallers
Wide Receiver
During the pre-Draft process, Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems to have established himself as the clear-cut first wide receiver off the board. As it stands, the only receiver I’d be surprised to see fall out of the first round is Jordan Addison. Wideouts slipping on Draft day has been known to happen, and stylistic/schematic preferences among teams can sometimes lead them to take receivers in a different order than is typically expected. Still, I believe Addison matches the greatest number of teams in the first round, including the Steelers and Chargers.
Zay Flowers may also find his way into the first round, with some rumors of him going as high as No. 14 overall to the Patriots, who may be picking too late to have a shot at Smith-Njigba.
Quentin Johnston, considered by most observers to be the top big-bodied receiver in the class, will not be at the draft this year, which many have taken as a sign that his stock is slipping toward the second round. Some of his pre-Draft athletic testing, such as his three-cone drill, was not impressive either. But if I had to guess, I’d still say he’s more likely than not to end up finding a spot in the 20s on Draft day. Too many teams could consider a wide receiver. Some of them, like the Vikings and Giants, lack ideal size at the position, which may lead them to prefer a bigger-bodied option relative to a smaller wideout like Addison or Flowers.
Tight End
Which tight end will be the first selected on Draft day? Earlier in the pre-Draft process, Luke Musgrave was building momentum, but now it appears to be a clear three-way race between Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer and Darnell Washington. I’ve had Mayer go to the Packers in every mock I remember. However, as the Draft approaches, I’m questioning some of the picks I felt comfortable with. I believe Washington has a chance of going even earlier, as some of the teams considering tight ends high tend to be comfortable reaching for athletic profiles. Drafting Washington that high would be a reach, in my opinion.
If the Packers pass on Mayer, it’s possible he could fall into the mid-to-late 20s, where I believe teams will start to consider Kincaid. It appears teams have been looking at Kincaid’s back during the pre-Draft process, and such injuries can always introduce uncertainty into a prospect’s stock.
It wouldn’t shock me if at least one of these tight ends fell out of the first round because of some of the moves made by other teams that needed tight ends going into the offseason. The Jaguars placed the franchise tag on Evan Engram, while the Bengals signed Irv Smith Jr., albeit on a modest deal. Of the two, I’d estimate that Cincinnati is more likely to still consider a tight end. However, Engram is reportedly not planning to attend voluntary workouts as he seeks a new contract.
Defensive End
The most interesting thing about this year’s crop of defensive ends is the disconnect between which players have reportedly been rising up Draft boards and which teams could potentially need one. Defensive end rankings have frequently been changing. Some of the biggest beneficiaries have been prospects like Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith, and Will McDonald IV, all of whom had excellent pre-Draft workouts. At this point, Van Ness is probably more likely than not to be a top-10 pick, although there isn’t really a team in that range that I’d consider a slam-dunk to draft him if they’re staying at their spot. Current favorites include the Falcons and Eagles.
However, it’s possible the likes of Smith and McDonald IV may go slightly later than anticipated. Many teams that could use a defensive end tend to draft bigger-bodied players. So if a team like Seattle passes on both (perhaps because they drafted Tyree Wilson with the fifth-overall pick), some of the teams could conceivably opt for bigger players later in the round.
Adetomiwa Adebawore has been getting some first-round hype. I’d also consider Keion White and Felix Anudike-Uzomah as potential late-first-round sleepers to watch. It’s worth mentioning that White recently received a Draft invitation.
Cornerback
Cornerback is a hard position to project this year because of how closely ranked the different prospects are. If a team anticipates dealing with big-bodied receivers, that could push them away from Devon Witherspoon and toward Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr. or Deonte Banks. Nonetheless, in some order, those appear to be the four cornerbacks who have a very good chance of being first-round picks. It’s also possible some teams may want a mix of different body types for matchup-based schemes.
I have Cam Smith and Kelee Ringo in my top-32 big board, but it’s unclear whether teams feel the same way. Of the two, I’d give Ringo a better shot of ending up in the first round because of his rare tools. One player I’ve probably overlooked somewhat during the process is Emmanuel Forbes, although I still tend to consider him relatively unlikely to come off the board in the first round. Ultimately, I’m not sure he’s a great fit for a press-heavy scheme like some of the teams picking later in the first round tend to favor. I’ve also considered slipping D.J. Turner into the first round recently, but I’m not sure he has the size to satisfy some teams. He does, however, have a better press-man technique than Forbes.
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