The 2023 NFL Draft is a week away, and that means it’s almost time to welcome a new class of rookies into the fantasy football community. While NFL Draft round and landing spots will help determine a rookie’s value, there are plenty of incoming players that we know are going to have an impact in 2023 fantasy football leagues. Let’s take a look at rookies that are most likely to have the greatest impact in 2023 fantasy football leagues.
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Top Impact Rookies (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are the rookies that are likely to have the greatest impact on 2023 fantasy football leagues.
Quarterbacks
In 2021, Stroud was tenth in pressured adjusted completion rate and 12th in pressured PFF passing grade while facing the 16th-lowest pressure rate (23.8%, minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Stroud has quiet feet against pressure and can make plays outside of structure. Stroud has effortless velocity on his throws. He has plenty of arm strength to fit any throw into a tight window. His accuracy is also sound on the move. He can layer throws against zone coverage with the best of them. His film is littered with special throws to the boundary that takes moxie to dial-up. He has no issues testing man coverage and tossing it up for his receiver to win. Stroud will sometimes hang on his first read, but there’s plenty of film of him performing full-field reads. He moves through his progressions quickly to find the open receiver. As the collegiate stats will show, Stroud isn’t a rushing threat, but that doesn’t mean he’s a statue in the pocket. He has plenty of maneuverability in the pocket, which he uses exceptionally well. He steps up in the pocket when necessary to avoid rushers and can get outside of structure when necessary and deliver an accurate throw on the run. Stroud won’t be a “rushing quarterback” at the next level, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have the wheels to grab an easy 5-7 yards when the defense is offering it up.
- Derek Brown
Bryce Young has the arm strength to make all the NFL-level throws, but he’ll never be confused as a quarterback with a rifle for an arm. When he fails to set his feet in the pocket and attempts to put zip on the ball, he can get erratic with low throws or sailing the ball. His accuracy on the run is surprisingly good and fluid, though, as he throws with touch with enough juice. Young can lace some balls into tight windows and deep to the boundaries when he’s in rhythm and feeling it (Georgia SEC Championship 2021). He can also be erratic, especially past 25-30 yards downfield. Young’s pocket presence is solid as he displays escapability and playmaking ability outside of structure. He can utilize multiple arm angles in the pocket and on the move to facilitate accurate passes. His rushing upside is real at the NFL level. He rarely takes big hits, protecting himself well by sliding. His open-field agility and burst are nice. Young has all the tools to succeed in the NFL, but some areas of his game still need to be polished. He is sometimes slow on the trigger, looking a second behind on some progressions and throws. Young will lock onto his first read and attempt some head-scratching passes into tight coverage when open receivers are running crossers over the middle of the field. This is more evident in his 2022 film, with a downgraded cast of characters surrounding him. It still popped up in 2021, but he played with more confidence in this season with Jameson Williams and John Metchie at his side. Young reminds me of watching Trevor Lawrence‘s final season film in that regard. Young plays with tempered aggression, but he’s still learning. He has no issues fitting the ball into a tight window in the short and intermediate regions or taking the check down when nothing is open. In 2022, he opted for check downs or to take off running more which can be a reflection of his surrounding cast, but it’s also a reflection of him. There are moments during that season where he bailed clean pockets or missed open wide receivers when he failed to come off his first read. Young is still trying to find the perfect balance between aggression and taking what the defense gives him.
- Derek Brown
The former Florida Gator offers rushing ability – nearly 1,200 rushing yards in two seasons, 60 rushing yards per game – and can drop it in the bucket downfield. Nine of Richardson’s 17 TDs came on 20-plus air-yard throws. His average depth of target (11.5) ranked fifth highest in his draft class in 2022.
Measuring in at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, Richardson has all the intangibles to become the league’s next fantasy football cheat code at the quarterback position. He is the most athletically-gifted quarterback we have ever seen at the NFL Combine – 4.43 40 speed (98th percentile) and the new record holder in the vertical/broad jump – and I can only imagine that NFL coaches are licking their chops to get this guy in the building.
The closest comp anybody can make to Richardson is Cam Newton, although he is far from a finished product with glaring accuracy woes. His 58% completion rate on throws between 0-9 yards downfield ranked third worst in the nation in 2022.
But his completion rate throwing at the intermediate level (61%) ranked in the top 25 in the nation last season. That’s better than Stroud (56%).
- Andrew Erickson
Running Backs
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year’s class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there’s no question as to why he’s the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.
During NFL Combine testing, Robinson ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. He also jumped 37″ in the vertical (81st percentile) and 124″ in the broad jump (86th percentile). Per PlayerProfiler.com that awarded B-Rob an 89th percentile speed score. His 1.52 10-yard split nearly matched track star Devon Achane (1.51) and actually equaled Jamyr Gibbs (1.52).
- Andrew Erickson
Gibbs is a slasher back that has 0 to 60 speed. He wins with foot quickness and raw speed that can string together lightning-fast lateral movements. Gibbs can take any touch to the house with a small crease in the second level. He has average contact balance. Gibbs will never be a pile-pushing running back. This could leave his red zone usage more in the form of pass-game targets than two-yard goal-line dives. Gibbs has been an elite receiving option out of the backfield for the last three seasons. Since 2020, he’s never ranked lower than ninth in yards per route run or sixth in PFF receiving grade among running backs (minimum 20 targets). He’s an angle route master that will destroy the soft underbelly of zone coverage. In limited pass pro reps seen on film, Gibbs has the ability to turn into a solid pass protector. His first punch is solid, and he had the leg drive to stand up defenders. Gibbs has a high motor. He’s sprinting out in front of his scrambling quarterback to try and set a block or fighting for extra yards at every turn. Coaches will love his energy.
- Derek Brown
Zach Charbonnet is a dancing rhino covered in butter. Charbonnet is a tough runner with nimble feet for his size and a mean stiff arm. He can string together jump cuts to daylight more regularly than a person his size should be able to. Arm tackles don’t bring down Charbonnet. He slips through them with ease. Charbonnet has a strong leg drive and consistently finishes runs well. While his lateral agility will surprise, he’s still at his best when he gets downhill in a hurry. Charbonnet is a decisive runner who operated in a gap-heavier scheme over the last two seasons (53.5% of his runs came on gap designs). Charbonnet is a serviceable pass catcher. He displays soft hands, but his athletic ceiling will limit how creatively a team will deploy him through the air at the next level. He can be a trusted check-down option for his next quarterback. His calling card will be his ability to handle volume and break off chunk plays. His home run hitting ability will not. Charbonnet is a buildup speed back who utilizes his fancy footwork to cover up for an average burst.
- Derek Brown
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Smith-Njiba won’t burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn’t necessary for him to succeed. He’s a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njiba’s snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njiba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He’s more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it’s not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njiba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He’s a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won’t blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
- Derek Brown
Jordan Addison received the Biletnikoff Award with Pittsburgh in 2021 as the best wide receiver in college football. He posted a ridiculous 36% dominator rating in Kenny Pickett‘s last season at Pitt, hauling in 17 touchdowns (a league-leading 8 versus man coverage) and nearly 1,600 receiving yards on 100 receptions. But the elite sophomore campaign hardly was a surprise, considering Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 59 catches for 875 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to one of the best college football had to offer among wide receivers. He transferred to USC for his junior year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight receiving TDs (79 targets). But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending the majority of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh. With shades of DeVonta Smith in his game, I expect Addison to hit the ground running at the next level with his route-running prowess.
- Andrew Erickson
The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Quentin Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions.
As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS. He followed up his early success with a 26% dominator rating in 2021, capped off by a stellar junior year with an identical 26% dominator rating, factoring in the games he missed due to injury
Although the future “X” receiver didn’t quite dominate production (23% college dominator rating) to the length that we see from consensus No. 1 overall-ranked wide receivers. Part of that can be attributed to his quarterback play, but it’s disheartening that he didn’t take another massive leap from his sophomore to junior season.
From a testing perspective, both of Johnston’s jumps at the NFL Scouting Combine were in the 93rd percentile or better. And at TCU’s pro day, Johnston ran a sub-4.50 40-yard dash, generating a very high relative athletic score.
- Andrew Erickson
Zay Flowers is absolutely an outside wide receiver in the NFL. He played 65.8% of his collegiate snaps on the perimeter, which should push even higher than that at the next level. Flowers has route running chops for days to get open on the boundary. He sets up corners with nuanced routes, explosive speed, multiple release packages, and an advanced understanding of how to get open. Flowers can win at all three levels. He’s lightning quick off the line to win short and a route tactician with intermediate and deep routes. Flowers understands how to use leverage and his fluid hips to get open on comebacks and outs. Flowers has no issue stacking corners on deep routes. He has the speed to get past them, and the smarts squeeze every inch of separation out of every route. Flowers is a twitch machine after the catch. His start and stop ability after securing the football is highlight reel worthy like Kadarius Toney. He’s a high-motor, tenacious player. Flowers’ zest for the game shows up in his blocking ferocity and yearning to claw tooth and nail for every inch of grass.
- Derek Brown
Tight Ends
Michael Mayer graded out as PFF’s highest-graded tight end in the country, leading the FBS in receiving TDs and yards per route run (2.44). Mayer was also PFF’s fifth-highest-graded run-blocking tight end. The Fighting Irish tight end finished his college career with 180 receptions for 2,099 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. This past season he caught 5.6 passes per game as the team’s featured weapon. Mayer offers the complete package at the tight end position. He’s just not an uber-athletic tight end that could hinder his upside at the next level. Jason Witten-esque.
- Andrew Erickson
Dalton Kincaid spent his first two seasons at San Diego playing a limited role. But he made the most of every touch he got, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception. His 21.0 yards per reception in 2019 ranked second among all TEs in both the FCS and FBS. After the impressive showing, Kincaid transferred to Utah in 2020 but missed the majority of the season due to COVID implications. It wasn’t until 2021 that Kincaid truly got his shot, and he absolutely dominated. Kincaid posted a 25% dominator rating as the 11th-highest-graded tight end in the nation per PFF. Kincaid followed up his impressive 2021 campaign nicely in 2022 with another eight-touchdown season. His dominator rating jumped to 26% as he led the nation in PFF receiving grade and finished 3rd in yards per route run.
Kincaid led Utah with 70 receptions (5.8 receptions per game, 22% target share), the most by any tight end in the nation. At 246 pounds, Kincaid is on the smaller side of the tight end spectrum, making it likely he takes on the role of a move tight end at the next level. He ran 55% of his routes from the slot in 2022. Kincaid also did not do any pre-draft testing due to injury, but he reportedly has passed all his physicals regarding his health.
- Andrew Erickson
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