Now a few weeks into the 2023 season, it is important to look at some current storylines to be ahead of the curve and gain an edge on your league-mates.

20 Things to Watch: Week 4

Week 4 Schedule Notes

The following team has just five games this week:

• San Diego Padres (at CHC, vs SF)

The following teams have 7 games weeks:

• Baltimore Orioles (vs BOS, at DET)
• New York Yankees (at MIN, vs TEX)
• Tampa Bay Rays (vs HOU, at CHW)
• Chicago White Sox (at LAD, at SF)
• Philadelphia Phillies (at TOR, vs TB)
• Detroit Tigers (at MIL, vs BAL)
• Kansas City Royals (at ARI, at MIN)
• Los Angeles Angels (vs OAK, at MIL)
• Texas Rangers (at CIN, vs NYY)
• Atlanta Braves (vs MIA, at NYM)
• Miami Marlins (at ATL vs CHC)
• St. Louis Cardinals (at SF, at LAD)

It’s Miller Time

Mason Miller made his Major League debut and set twitter ablaze with his 100 mph fastball. He is a really well regarded prospect that has struggled to stay healthy. He will be the big name in FAAB this week, but there are questions about how deep he will be allowed to go in games considering his injury history and his violent delivery.

Ring The Bellinger

Cody Bellinger is hitting .290/.367/.507 with four home runs and three stolen bases. More importantly, he is striking out just 15% of the time and that improvement is backed up by a 9% swinging strike rate. He is making better decisions inside and outside the zone as well. It is still too early to say the old Bellinger is back, but these are really good signs.

No Way Jose

Jose Berrios has been truly awful since the beginning of last season and he is sporting a 6.23 ERA, but I am intrigued. In spite of the rough start, he has a 2.69 FIP, the best walk and home run rates of his career. He has gotten unlucky in the strand rate and BABIP which is why the ERA is so high. He has his best z-contact and swinging strike rates of his career as well. This may be a really nice buy low candidate.

Marshy Territory

Brandon Marsh is hitting .356/.424/.712 with three home runs and a stolen base this season. The problem is he is still striking out 31.8% of the time and is running a .514 BABIP. Now there will be some regression, but the underlying stats are actually pretty good. His swinging strike rate is 9.5% which is the best he has had in the Majors and he is making the best contact he has ever made in the zone while swinging outside of it. I think people are going to pinpoint him as a sell high, but I think buying might be the right move.

The Rise and Fall Of Volpe

Anthony Volpe is a top-tier prospect that was a surprising add to the Opening Day roster for the Yankees. Since he has been up, he has played every day and racked up a ton of stolen bases. However, he is hitting just .193 and striking out almost 30% of the time. At this time he is leading off and his strong walk rate could keep him there but he needs to make improvements at the dish for fantasy managers to not eat the bad average and lack of power.

Jake The Snake

Jake McCarthy is struggling to start the season, hitting .143/.226/.196 with no home runs and two stolen bases. He is making a fair amount of contact and getting pretty unlucky on balls in play with a .174 BABIP. His xAVG is .250 so he should be hitting much better but not great. I think there is some rebound potential and we know he has speed here, but if he doesn’t turn it around the Diamondbacks have options and look like they want to compete.

Is Justin a Steele?

Justin Steele has been fantastic this season, throwing 25 innings with a 1.44 ERA and almost a strike out an inning. He has the best walk rate of his career thus far which is really encouraging. He is getting lucky with the strand rate and BABIP, but even regression has him as a guy I am buying in as a buy right now.

Swan Song for Singer

I was huge on Brady Singer coming into the season, but he has struggled a ton so far this season. He is in the zone too much and getting lit up because of it. He is getting unlucky in the strand rate and BABIP, but that doesn’t account for everything going on. He is just giving up too many home runs and being too hittable. There is a ton of talent in his arm, but if he continues to struggle, he may need to end up on a lot of waiver wires rather than carrying teams to a championship.

Is Garcia Fixed?

Luis Garcia really struggled early on in the season to the point where I was starting to think shallow league players should drop him. There was a lot of talk about how he had to change his delivery with the new rules and it clearly affected him. However, he was dominant in his last start so maybe he is beginning to figure things out. I have always loved the talent so I am hoping this is a sign of things to come.

Time to Buy Low on Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi has struggled to start the season, posting a 5.40 ERA in 21.2 innings. However, the skills have been really good with a strikeout per inning, giving up less contact in the zone and getting a lot of swings outside of it. He has been unlucky in the BABIP department and the strand rate. The risk with Eovaldi is always health, but right now he is healthy.

Getting Boxed Out

Michael Fulmer has struggled recently and blew another save on Thursday. On the contrary, Brad Boxberger has pitched well and registered his first save of the season. Fulmer is the better overall pitcher at this point in their careers, but if he doesn’t turn it around quickly, Boxberger is going to take this job.

Who Saves the Royals?

Scott Barlow has struggled this season and could be on a short leash moving forward. The situation is more precarious for him with Aroldis Chapman waiting in the wings. Chapman has looked like his vintage self in the eighth inning as a top tier reliever. The changing of the guard could be happening now.

14-16. Steaming Options

Griffin Canning (SP – LAA): vs OAK

Canning is a former “sleeper” that has struggled to stay healthy in recent years. However, he is healthy right now and pitching really well. He has a really nice matchup versus the depleted A’s roster and is a great stream that you might be able to hold for a while.

Hayden Wesneski (SP – CHC): at MIA

Wesneski struggled through his first few starts, but a few innings through his last start something clicked and he was the guy we saw at the end of last season and in spring. He has a great matchup in Miami with the Marlins and should be rostered in all formats.

Steven Matz (SP – STL): at SF

Matz has struggled so far this season, so this not for the faint of heart, but this is a premier matchup against a Giants team that has struggled a ton against left handed pitching this year in one of the best parks in baseball.

17-20. Two Start Recommendations

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – DET): at MIL, vs BAL

E-Rod has looked great this season and is looking like the guy he was before the disaster of a season last year. The Orioles matchup is tough but the Brewers are awful against left handed pitching.

Josiah Gray (SP – WSH): at NYM, vs PIT

Gray has made a pitch mix change that has led to some really nice improvements. He stopped throwing his fastball so much and is now keeping the ball in the yard outside of an awful first start. He has a nice set of matchups versus a struggling Mets offense and the Pirates who don’t really scare anyone.

Johan Oviedo (SP – PIT): vs LAD, at WAS

Oviedo is not well known because he is in Pittsburgh but he has some prospect pedigree and he has been really impressive so far this season, limiting walks and home runs. He has a tough matchup with the Dodgers and then a cake one with the Nationals, but this is one I am rolling with.

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