10 Best NFL Draft Player Prop Bets (2023)

The NFL Draft is finally here. As the anticipation for the upcoming season builds, so does the excitement for placing bets on your favorite players. Our featured experts have analyzed and compiled the best NFL Draft Player Prop Bet picks to help you make informed decisions and increase your chances of success.

Every year, the draft brings hope to all teams, fans and aspiring college prospects. The NFL’s biggest offseason event is a little different this year, though. With mobile sports betting now legal across much of the country, this year’s draft figures to be the most heavily followed in recent memory. With so many people seeking to wager on the draft, it can be hard to get an edge. That’s why we’ve got the most accurate sports betting experts here to assist you.

See which prop bets they’re looking at below, including one prop that two experts disagree on.

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 500
Final Mock Drafts: Freedman | Jones | Weyrauch | Erickson
NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
Historical Draft Picks of All 32 Teams
NFL Draft Prop Bet Cards: Freedman | Weyrauch | Erickson
2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

Best NFL Draft Prop Bets

1. What is your single favorite prop bet heading into the 2023 NFL Draft and why?

Hendon Hooker (QB – TEN): Drafted by Eagles, 49ers, Bills or Chiefs
I have Hooker at No. 50 on my big board. He’s No. 46 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board. I don’t believe he’s going on Day 1. He feels like a guy that a team will grab in Round 2 — and the odds for any guy after Round 1 to go to any team in particular shouldn’t be all that far away from 3.125% (one divided by 32). At that point in the draft, any guy can go to almost any team. Now, FanDuel amazingly has Hooker with +30000 odds (yes, 300-1) to go to the following teams: Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, Chargers, Jaguars, Browns, Panthers, Bills and Chiefs. What’s the one team on that list with a history of drafting quarterbacks with top-100 picks even though it already had established starters? The Eagles. They did it with Kevin Kolb (No. 36, 2007), Nick Foles (No. 88, 2012), Matt Barkley (No. 98, 2013) and Jalen Hurts (No. 53, 2020). If Hooker falls in the draft — and he easily could, because he’s an injured 25-year-old passer who played in a pseudo-gimmick offense — the Eagles will be a legitimate candidate to take him as long as he represents value on their board. At +3000o, Hooker has a 0.33% implied probability to go to the Eagles, and I think the true probability is higher than 1% and maybe as high as 3%. As for the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs — I can imagine HCs Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott and Andy Reid feeling secure enough in their jobs to take and develop a quarterback who falls to them and presents value based on their boards.
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)

“Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter to go under 6.5 draft position at +160 odds. It’s plus money for the best player in the draft to go inside the top 6. I cannot see the Detroit Lions (pick at No. 6) passing on him after relatively positive reports coming in lieu of his off-the-field issues. NFL.com’s Peter Schrager also reported over the past weekend that Carter will not fall out of the top-6 drafted players.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“This is a bit of a longshot, but it’s one of my favorites on the board. The Chargers have expressed a desire to add speed on offense, and while I believe that’s the most likely outcome with their first-round selection, I think the next likely outcome is mispriced. The sudden retirement of safety Nasir Adderly and the likely departure of free-agent slot corner Bryce Callahan leaves holes in the back half of the Chargers defense. Additionally, last season’s big free agent addition, J.C. Jackson, struggled when on the field, so adding talent at corner and safety is a priority. There are no top-tier safeties in this draft, with Brian Branch classified as a defensive back/cornerback. It was as high as 25/1 but you can still bet on the Chargers to select a corner with their first pick at 12/1 on DraftKings.”
– Ryan Noonan (4for4.com)

Join us LIVE for the First Round of the 2023 NFL Draft!

“Jaxon Smith-Njigba u14.5 seems like a lock after the Green Bay Packers moved to pick No. 13 following the Aaron Rodgers trade. The Packers’ current wide-receiver room boasts of promising sophomore wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but then it gets dicey with Samori Toure, Bo Melton, and Jeff Cotton rounding out the rest of the room. Green Bay needs to add a quality wide receiver to surround Jordan Love with, and JSN is the most complete wide receiver in this draft. Smash the under.”
– Jacob W. Dunne (Triple Play Fantasy)

“Total RB Drafted in Round 1 (Over 1.5, -143): Bijan Robinson is a Round 1 lock, so this comes down to whether Jahmyr Gibbs makes it into the top-31. Recent news items are certainly favorable for the ‘Bama product. NBC Sports’ Peter King reported that some teams have Gibbs ranked ahead of Robinson. ESPN’s Todd McShay even considers Gibbs a shoo-in for Round 1. Ultimately, I think Gibbs’ speed, burst, and receiving ability get him into the late 1st.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

“Under 1.5 running backs drafted in the first round (+160 on DraftKings as of early Wednesday morning). Bijan Robinson is obviously a first-round lock, but I’ve been trying to find a first-round fit for Jahmyr Gibbs and can’t. There isn’t a logical fit in the top 20, and that’s too early for Gibbs anyway. The Ravens and Vikings could use him but have greater priorities. The Bengals might be tempted by Gibbs, but I’m 99% sure they’d take a tight end before a running back. Dallas and Buffalo are possibilities, but Gibbs’ skills would somewhat overlap with those of the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard and the Bills’ James Cook. I can’t see the Eagles passing on Bijan Robinson at pick No. 10 only to grab Gibbs at pick No. 30. It’s also worth noting that Gibbs would be the first sub-200-pound RB to be drafted in the first round since Jahvid Best in 2010. (Hat tip to Matthew Betz for that nugget.) Gibbs is going to slide into the second round, so I love the under on this bet at +160 odds.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“Dalton Kincaid OVER 23.5 Draft Slot. TEs are a tough sell for me in the first round unless you are special. Kincaid is good, but special I do not see. Very limited as a blocker and will take time to adjust to the NFL game. He is similar to Isaiah Likely, whom the Ravens selected in the 4th round of the 2022 NFL draft. Give me the over.”
– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)