The 2023 NFL Draft is still several weeks away. However, the No. 1 overall pick has been a hot topic for the past two months. Following the Houston Texans’ Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears secured the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is considered the top quarterback and overall prospect in this year’s draft class. Therefore, it’s no surprise that multiple teams have contacted the Bears about the top draft pick. While several teams need a quarterback this year, there are three prime trade partners for the Bears: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Las Vegas Raiders.
Today, I look at what it would cost the Colts to acquire the No. 1 overall pick.
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Current Quarterback Situation
The last time the Colts had a stable quarterback situation was with Andrew Luck. Since his surprise retirement in 2019, Indianapolis has had a different Week 1 starting quarterback every year.
Last year the team believed they had found their guy after trading for Matt Ryan. However, he showed signs of age and struggled. Furthermore, the veteran quarterback got benched twice last year. The Colts will release Ryan this offseason, opening over $17 million in salary cap space.
Meanwhile, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger are under contract for next season and should return. Ehlinger was given a chance to be the starter last year but struggled. He had two passing touchdowns and three interceptions in three starts last season. After years of trying their hand at the veteran trade market, the Colts will reportedly draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Draft Capital
While this is no hard and fast rule with trading draft capital, there are two trade charts. Jimmy Johnson created the original trade chart in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, Rich Hill made an updated trade chart several years later. I prefer the Johnson trade chart, but both are useful tools.
The Colts have eight picks in the 2023 NFL, including three in the top 80. Below, I break down the total trade value of the team’s eight picks for both trade charts.
|
The Team’s Draft Picks |
Johnson Trade Chart Value |
Hill Trade Chart Value |
|
Round 1, Pick 4 |
1800 |
491 |
|
Round 2, Pick 35 |
550 |
170 |
|
Round 3, Pick 79 |
195 |
57 |
|
Round 4, Pick 105 |
84 |
32 |
|
Round 5, Pick 138 |
37.5 |
16 |
|
Round 5, Pick 162 |
25.4 |
9 |
|
Round 7, Pick 222 |
1.1 |
2 |
|
Round 7, Pick 237 |
1 |
2 |
|
Total Number of Picks: 8 |
Total Value: 2,694 Points |
Total Value: 779 Points |
Potential Trade Package
According to the Johnson trade chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. Meanwhile, it’s worth 1,000 points according to the Hill trade chart.
Despite trading up only three draft slots, the Colts don’t have the picks needed in this year’s draft to acquire the No. 1 overall pick. That means the team will need to include future draft picks or players to get a deal done. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner has been a name tossed around in potential trade offers.
Chicago’s head coach Matt Eberflus was the defensive coordinator in Indianapolis from 2018-2021. Meanwhile, the Bears are rebuilding their defense after trading away multiple veterans last season. Adding Buckner would give Eberflus an anchor to rebuild the defense around.
One potential trade package for the Colts would be to send their first and second-round picks this year (4th and 35th overall) plus their first and second-round picks in 2024 and Buckner to Chicago for the No. 1 overall pick.
While that seems like Indianapolis is overpaying for Young, it’s a similar deal to the one between the St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins in 2012. The Rams traded the No. 2 overall pick to the Redskins so they could draft Robert Griffin III. In return, Washington sent the No. 6 overall pick, the 39th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, plus two future first-round picks to St. Louis.
The one advantage the Colts have over other teams like the Raiders is their top-four draft pick. If the Bears trade back any further, they likely won’t be able to draft Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. However, Chicago could land one of those elite defensive players with the fourth overall selection.
Fantasy Impact
Young was an excellent player at Alabama despite not having the best-receiving corps. In his two years as the starter, the star quarterback had 8,200 passing yards and 79 touchdowns. He also added seven rushing touchdowns during his time in Tuscaloosa.
Last year the Colts didn’t have many fantasy-relevant players. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. were the only two weekly starters on the team. However, Indianapolis has several young appealing players on their roster. Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Parris Campbell were streaming options at one point or another during last season. Adding Young to replace Ryan could provide the passing game the boost it needs to make those young players consistent fantasy contributors next year.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.