The Welsh’s Favorite Draft Day Targets (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Hello, friendos! It’s time to talk about some draft day targets. When you end up doing a million mock drafts and half a million real leagues, you’re going to end up investing in most players. Not all the players on your roster were a part of your pre-planning. What I have for you today, though, are my biggest draft targets. I broke the players up into groups of 50 tiers. This doesn’t take into account my positional needs, but sometimes with these players, it just won’t matter.

This is for H2H categories/roto. All ADP (average draft positions) referenced are from the Fantasy Pros aggregate ADP. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite players to draft in 2022.

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The Welsh’s Favorite Draft Day Targets (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Top 50

Shane McClanahan (SP – TB): ADP 35

McClanahan was pretty much the best pitcher in baseball in the first half of the 2022 season. He had a 1.71 ERA with a 35% K% in the first half. We saw a slowdown in the second with limiting innings, but the bulk of the “bad” came from only the final month of the season, as he had an under-three ERA for four of the six available months. (The first month, he had exactly a 3.00 ERA, which wasn’t taken into consideration here.)

McClanahan’s overhauled approach saw him lower the slider usage for a changeup that he used 25% of the time, which had a 44.6% Whiff%. He is an elite pitcher who belongs in the discussion of the top arms, yet comes in seventh and outside the top 30. The Bat X projections system has McClanahan with a top-10 lowest ERA on the year. Among that top-10, he is projected with the second most innings. I don’t want to invest in pitchers early, but McClanahan is the perfect complement to start with back-to-back elite hitters.

Jazz Chisholm (2B, OF – MIA): ADP 46

A stress fracture ended Jazz’s season early to only 60 games. In those games, though, Jazz was still able to hit 14 home runs and steal 12 bases. Jazz lowered his K% by a full point and raised his BB% by two points. His overall approach saw major upticks as he raised his hard-hit percentage, barrels, wOBA, and xSLG. Jazz is now healthy and set to take over in center field for Miami, but he still keeps that second-base qualification for this year. The changes in his game are carrying over to this year, as the Bat X projections system has him hitting 21 home runs with 29 stolen bases in under 135 games. My favorite part is he goes as the third baseman off the board, just creeping inside the top 50. The position itself stinks, and the upside for Jazz is a first-round return.

The 51-100 Range

Corey Seager (SS – TEX): ADP 52

Seager’s first year in Texas saw mixed results. No one is complaining about 33 home runs, but his .245 average was 20 points lower than at any point in his career. What is staring us right in our face is his career-low BABIP. Seager never had a BABIP under .300 in his career until 2022, when his .242 BABIP was almost 100 points lower than the previous year. Seager has a .317 career BABIP. Positive batting average regression is almost a guarantee.

The most exciting part about Seager, though, might be the ban on the shift. He was the ninth-most shifted-against player in baseball last year at 92.8% of the time. When the shift was on, Seager had a .326 wOBA. When the shift was off, Seager had a .397 wOBA. Most projection systems use a three-year window to create averages. Due to Seager failing to hit over 20 home runs since 2017 (besides 2022), every system has his power regressing. This is despite him maintaining a .200 plus .ISO. With the same power, positive average regression, and no shift, Seager has a great chance to surpass his 33 home runs as long as he can stay healthy. He continues to creep up draft boards but is a no-brainer pick outside the top 50.

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI): ADP 77

The time it takes Corbin Carroll to move 90 feet is 3.66 seconds. This number helped label him as the fastest player in baseball for 2022. Across three minor league levels and a short stint in the majors, Carroll hit 28 home runs and stole 33 bases over 125 games. His size pretty much dominates every question that pops up, yet besides his rookie season as an 18-year-old in rookie ball, he has always had a .200+ ISO.

Carroll played 32 major league games in 2022, with a max-EV of 107.5. During the first week of spring training, Carroll already put up a 109+ exit velocity double. This just shows the progression of his hit tool. Not to mention, in his first at-bat, he stole second. Rookies bring a lot of volatility. More often than not, I tend to stay away. Carroll does not come cheap, which makes it even dicier for many, but Carroll has a real shot to be a 15/30 player this year. If he is given the shot to lead off as well, the floor continues to rise for Carroll, while his ceiling could look similar to the top rookies from 2022.

The 101-150 Range

Blake Snell (SP – SD): ADP 111

Snell started the year off injured and had a horrible first two months that equaled a 5+ ERA. During those two months, his K% was 30 and 20. Starting in July, Snell never had a K% under 34% or an ERA over 3. From July 1, Snell had the fifth-best K% among all starting pitchers at 35.1% and tied for the fourth-best K/9 with Carlos Rodon at 12.9. Snell’s two main secondary pitches, the slider and the curveball, both equaled just under 40% of his usage. Each had a Whiff% over 40, which is elite.

His ability to go deep into games is always a question (and lowers him a little in quality start leagues), but coming in at 111 in drafts is a steal. His upside is a top-10 pitcher if he can stay healthy and get that insanely talented offense run support on his side. Snell is my number one post-100 pitcher target.

Kris Bryant (OF – COL): ADP 123

Injuries killed so much of the potential from Bryant’s first year in Colorado. He played 42 games while hitting just five home runs. Almost unbelievably, he hit zero home runs in Colorado. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of the downtick in average exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit was due to injuries.

On a positive note, during his offensive return in 2022, he hit .323 in Colorado. He hit over .280 against both righties and lefties. In the first week of spring, we are already seeing a healthy Bryant thrive, as he already crushed two home runs in his first seven at-bats. Bryant’s ADP is as low as it’s ever been at 123. If he continues to hit in spring training, you can expect his ADP to rise, but anything outside the top 100 leaves a lot of fantasy upside on the table.

The 151-200 Range

Jeffrey Springs (SP – TB): ADP 162

Springs put up the 10th-best ERA among all pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched in 2022. His 3.32 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball, which was tied with Zac Gallen. Under these same guidelines, Springs’s 26.2 K% was 20th-best in baseball, but for perspective, this was higher than Yu Darvish‘s 25.6%. Though his fastball velo dropped 2 mph, a 2 mph addition came to his slider, which now sits at 85 MPH. The great K rate and low walk rate make Springs a high-floor pitcher.

Another fun advantage is in many places, he is SPARP (Starting Pitcher As a Relief Pitcher) which you can use if you wish to punt closers or just sneak another starter in an RP spot. The biggest knock is his ability to play a full season innings-wise. Springs pitched 135 innings last year, which was more than all of his other major league seasons combined. Springs should be able to surpass 150 this year and is a steal outside the top 150.

Lars Nootbaar (OF – STL): ADP 188

Everything about Lars Nootbaar’s game has me excited. Like 2022, Nootbaar spent an offseason at Driveline. He spent time not only working on bat speed but pull-side fly ball/launch angles. Early indications out of Cardinals camp are that work is paying off. This is coming after 2022, when he hit 14 home runs with a .228 batting average. The batting average wasn’t great, but he had a .247 xBA, as well as a 91.7 average EV and a 113 max EV. His pull-happy approach, along with all of these hard-hit metrics, minus a worrisome strikeout rate, could reap great things for Nootbaar.

Projections see an increase to 17 HR and six stolen bases in only 120 or so games, but with a real production uptick with more playing time, we might be seeing a 25/10 season. There is no player I get madder about not getting in drafts than Lars Nootbaar.

Some Players I Love in the 200+ Range

• Reid Detmers (SP – LAA): ADP 214
• CJ Abrams (SS – WAS): ADP 243
• Miguel Vargas (1B, 2B – LAD): ADP 248
• Nathan Eovaldi (SP – TEX): ADP 261
• Bryan De La Cruz (OF – MIA): ADP 273

Find me on Twitter at @isitthewelsh and listen to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast for more.

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