We all get attached to certain players for one reason or another. Sometimes just like the player and believe in their potential. Come draft day, we find ourselves reaching for them, drafting them a round or two earlier than their ADP to ensure we get them on our roster.
There is nothing wrong with this, rankings aren’t infallible, and ADP is generated by fantasy managers, who may or may not know what they’re doing. FantasyPros’ ECR is a great way to prepare for drafts and provides an excellent cross-section of opinions. However, sometimes you should trust your instinct. Don’t be afraid to grab the players you believe in. At the very least, it makes the season more fun if you can tell yourself, “I knew it.”
Regarding pitchers, I like to scan the ADP and look for players with upside. Who has the potential to break out and produce fantasy numbers above their draft position? Sometimes these players help you win your league. Other times, it doesn’t work out. Whatever the result, following your conviction is never a bad thing.
Below are five starting pitchers who I’m targeting a round or two before their ADP because I feel they’re undervalued:
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)
Overall ADP: 72 | SP ADP: 24
Zac Gallen finished 2022 as the sixth-best fantasy pitcher, according to FantasyPros’ VBR. He was the best pitcher in baseball in the second half, posting a 1.49 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 0.74 WHIP and 10.3 Ks per nine. Gallen finished fifth in the Cy Young voting and, with another month, may have won the award. So why does he get so little love?
The only stain on Gallen’s resumé was in 2021 when injuries limited him to 23 starts and compromised his effectiveness. In every other season, his ERA has been under 3.00. Perhaps fantasy managers worry about his health, but he threw 184 innings last year, and the injury-plagued 2021 season appears well behind him. He’s worth a late-fifth or sixth-round pick as a starter who can anchor your staff.
Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)
Overall ADP: 127 | SP ADP: 38
Nick Lodolo’s teammate, Hunter Greene, is a fantasy darling. Greene’s stock continues to rise to the point where he’s no longer a bargain with an ADP of 106 – two rounds earlier than Lodolo’s. Yet last season, their numbers were remarkably similar:
| Player | IP | W | K/9 | ERA | FIP | WHIP |
| Greene | 125 | 5 | 11.75 | 4.44 | 4.37 | 1.21 |
| Lodolo | 103 | 4 | 11.41 | 3.66 | 3.90 | 1.25 |
Perhaps Greene has more upside, but Lodolo is a highly-touted young pitcher in his own right. Both issue too many walks and miss a lot of bats. Lodolo doesn’t throw as hard as Greene but still averages 94 mph on his sinker, his bread-and-butter pitch. Both of the Reds’ young guns should have bright futures, but give me the lanky lefty a round or two later.
Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL)
Overall ADP: 138 | SP ADP: 42
Freddy Peralta disappointed fantasy managers last year. A lat strain and shoulder fatigue limited him to 78 innings after his career-high 144 in 2021. His strikeout rate was down from the incredible 12.16 K/9 he put up in 2021. However, a 9.92 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at, and his other numbers were still solid. His ERA climbed to 3.58, but his xERA, FIP and xFIP all mirrored 2021, suggesting a bit of bad luck. The only thing that held him back were the innings, and he is reportedly healthy to start the year.
Perhaps the Brewers will limit Peralta, but he otherwise feels like the same pitcher who managers drafted in the top 50 a year ago. I’m targeting him two or three rounds earlier than his ADP of 138, where he could still be a bargain.
Patrick Sandoval (SP – LAA)
Overall ADP: 207 | SP ADP: 60
Why does Patrick Sandoval get so little love from the fantasy community? I get that he walks too many batters, which leads to a high WHIP and can cost him wins since he only averaged 5.5 innings per start last year. But how many starters in this range had an ERA below 3.00 and struck out over a batter an inning last year?
Sandoval can be nasty. He generates a ton of swinging strikes on both his slider and changeup. His curveball had a 46.9 % CSW% in 2022, one of the best in baseball. If he can harness his control a bit more this season, he could be a top-30 starter.
Noah Syndergaard (SP – LAD)
Overall ADP: 246 | SP ADP: 72
Noah Syndergaard, “Thor,” returned to the mound last season after essentially missing the prior two years due to Tommy John surgery. However, his return wasn’t particularly triumphant, as he barely resembled his former flame-throwing self. He wasn’t terrible, winning 10 games for the Angels and Phillies with an ERA under 4.00. But Syndergaard only struck out 6.35 batters per nine, a far cry from the old days.
So why target him? First of all, he’s barely being drafted with an ADP of 246, so this is more about taking a flier on him. The reason is simple: he’s now with the Dodgers. The Dodgers have habitually gotten the best out of their pitchers in recent years. Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin were All-Stars last year, as was Ross Stripling in 2018. Andrew Heaney had the lowest ERA and highest K% of his career in his one year with the club (albeit in only 72 IPs). Mark Prior, the Dodgers’ pitching coach, is one of the best in the business.
Grabbing Thor near the end of your draft could pay huge dividends. His velocity isn’t likely to return to pre-Tommy John surgery levels, but he may become a better pitcher and, thus, fantasy relevant once again.
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