Texas will continue hosting the PGA Tour after a wild weekend of Match Play during the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event at Austin CC that saw Sam Burns and Cameron Young out-duel Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to wind up in the Championship Matchup on Sunday afternoon. Burns logged his fifth outright win with a dominant 6 & 5 victory over Young, shedding his shaky start to 2023 with a resounding statement. This week, the PGA Tour returns to its standard stroke play scoring format and heads south from Austin to TPC San Antonio Oaks Course for the 2023 Valero Texas Open.
The field of 144 doesn’t feature as many heavy hitters as we’ve seen in recent events but there is still plenty of production to acquire when constructing DFS lineups. Currently, Tyrrell Hatton is the outright betting favorite at +1200, followed by Rickie Fowler (+1800), Si Woo Kim (+2200), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200), and Corey Conners (+2200) rounding out the top five. Only Conners has produced an outright win at Valero in recent events, setting a course record for -20-under-par back in 2019 that remains his only career outright win. Consider these five players the blue-chip prospects that will be attached to elevated salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s check out previous winners, a few relevant betting stats, and the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course overview before we get into six of my favorite players to target in DFS lineups ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times. As always, best of luck and let’s cash out these contests!
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Previous Winners
- 2022 – J.J. Spaun (-13)
- 2021 – Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2020 – Cancelled
- 2019 – Corey Conners (-20)
- 2018 – Andrew Landry (-17)
- 2017 – Kevin Chappell (-12)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
- Driving Distance
- Sand Save percentage
- Greens in Regulation
Course Overview
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was initially designed by Greg Norman with assistance from Sergio Garcia back in 2009. The Oaks Course is a par 72 track that runs north of 7,400 yards, featuring an equal distribution of four par 3s and four par 5s along the front and back nine. Some of the features that stand out at TPC San Antonio are the oak trees that line the fairways, creating difficult lies for errant tee shots and approach shots alike. The fairways are narrow to challenge players off of the tee, but they do tend to run a bit wider on certain holes than what we saw at Austin CC and during the Florida leg of the Tour. The rough is fairly short at two inches but the native Texas grasses and vegetation will stand upwards of half a foot, punishing most shots that wind up off of the fairways or greens. Not nearly as much undulation as we saw at Austin CC, which bailed players out of potentially bad lies.
Water hazards don’t show up often, but there is a pond in front of the first par 3 on the front nine, while a narrow creek on the par 5 18th sandwiched between the green and the end of the fairway could wind up creating chaos. All surfaces from the tee box, to the fairways, rough, and greens, are all comprised of Bermudagrass, which tends to run slower than its Bentgrass counterpart, reaching a velocity upwards of 11.5 feet via the Stimpmeter. The sand bunkers are elongated and flank the fairways and surround the greens, including a bunker directly in the center of the par 3 16th green. Sand wedge ability will be imperative more than it normally is, along with rewarding good ball-striking and lengthy driving distances, as three of the four par 5s run 591 yards and up to 604 yards.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Si Woo Kim: $9,700
One of the most consistent performers at Valero in past events has been Si Woo Kim. The 27-year-old South Korean has logged previous finishes of T13, T23, and T4 dating back to 2019. He excels with irons in his hand, ranking 22nd in total strokes gained, including 19th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 22nd in strokes gained approaching the green. An accurate driver allows Kim to avoid the rough, setting himself up to hit over 68 percent of greens in regulation. Kim has generated at least 60.5 DK points in four of his past five events played, so consider him a blue-chip discount under $10,000 on DraftKings.
Matt Kuchar: $9,200
Another player with a ton of success at Valero in previous appearances is 44-year-old American, Matt Kuchar. He was two strokes (-11) shy of tying the 2022 winner, J.J. Spaun, and he looked good during Match Play in Austin this past weekend. While Kuchar’s recent event finishes range from a T10 finish at The Genesis Invitational, to consecutive missed cuts at The Honda Classic and The PLAYERS Championship, he is the top-ranked player in sand save percentage, scrambling, and second in consecutive fairways hit. This style of play aligns nicely with the rigors at TPC San Antonio, where Kuchar should yield a ton of production in lineups at a valuable salary of $9,200. Fire up the veteran without hesitation at one of his favorite courses.
Brendon Todd: $7,900
Last year at Valero, Brendon Todd logged a T8 finish, and he nearly pulled off a comeback win at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago. The 37-year-old American is ranked 27th in strokes gained putting, possesses the fourth-most accurate driver on the PGA Tour, and is a quality scrambler. Todd is ranked 26th in one-putt percentage and 17th in three-putt avoidance, so he’s a machine on the greens with his flat stick, which gives a significant edge over a lot of the field at Valero. At this low salary, Todd is a priority add to DraftKings lineups.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Rickie Fowler: $11,700
Speaking of resurgent careers, Rickie Fowler has been stringing together some impressive finishes in crowded fields in 2023. The 34-year-old American is ranked 14th in total strokes gained, which shows his ability as a ball-striker, while he’s ranked first in consecutive par 3 birdies, and third in par 3 scoring average. Whether it’s hitting over 69 percent of greens in regulation, ranking 15th in putting average, or converting 34.5 percent of birdies per round, Fowler should be treated as a priority blue-chip prospect at Valero this weekend.
Ben Griffin: $10,000
Ben Griffin’s return to the PGA Tour has been very impressive, considering that he stepped away from the game for a couple of years. The 26-year-old has yet to return to a T10 finish since logging one back in October at Butterfield, but he’s got quite a bit of talent that makes him an intriguing DFS add on FanDuel. Griffin ranks first in total birdies, fifth in Round 1 scoring average, and fifth in consecutive birdies/eagles made. He also is a quality scrambler, possesses strong irons, and is ranked inside the top 40 for one-putt percentage. Griffin is a bit raw still but in a lighter field at a course that fits his skillset, paying $10K on FanDuel to land his production will be worth the investment.
Joseph Bramlett: $8,300
Dig into the value of Valero’s slate and you’ll discover Joseph Bramlett available to roster at $8,300 on FanDuel. The 34-year-old native of California has logged two T10 finishes this season and he tends to start fast, ranking 13th in Round 1 scoring an average of 69. There aren’t nearly as many metrics supporting Bramlett compared to the other five players I’ve identified but he does average 4.02 birdies per round, which is lucrative currency in PGA DFS. Bramlett has good irons but needs to work on his putting, so if he’s dialed in and hitting the greens in regulation consistently, which he does most of the time with an average of over 68 percent, then he quickly becomes a salary-saving asset in lineups. Take on a bit of risk here and plug Bramlett into lineups as a high-value addition.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.